AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 729 AM EDT FRI JUL 8 2011 .SYNOPSIS... BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS INTO THE WEEKEND. TROPICAL MOISTURE MOVING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS WILL BRING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE WEEKEND. SOME OF THIS RAIN WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES. BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK ACROSS THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT MAY APPROACH THE AREA DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 3:00 AM FRIDAY...TODAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WITH ONE IMPORTANT EXCEPTION. FOR THE SIMILARITIES...WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE A WARM AND MOIST TROPICAL AIR MASS ADVECT ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE BERMUDA HIGH. THE AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH P/W VALUES HOVERING AROUND 2 INCHES. STEERING FLOW DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS WILL BE LIGHT. THESE FACTORS WILL COMBINE FOR ANOTHER DAY OF SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD CONVECTION...WITH HEAVY RAIN FROM SLOW MOVING STORMS LEADING TO THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCALIZED FLOODING. THIS WILL ESPECIALLY BE THE CASE FOR NORMALLY FLOOD PRONE AREAS AND THOSE PLACES THAT HAVE SEEN HEAVY RAINFALL RECENTLY. THE AFOREMENTIONED EXCEPTION IS THE APPROACH OF A TROPICAL WAVE FROM THE SOUTH. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT WE WILL NOT BEAR THE FULL BRUNT OF ITS ENERGY AND MOISTURE CONTENT...GIVING US MORE OF A GLANCING BLOW. THIS WILL STILL SERVE TO ELEVATE PRECIP CHANCES THOUGH...SO EXPECT MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE THAN SEEN YESTERDAY. TEMPERATURES VERY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. A SLIGHT BUILDING OF THE THERMAL RIDGE WILL BE OFFSET BY INCREASED CLOUD COVER...LEADING TO TEMPERATURES FROM THE UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST TO THE LOWER 90S INLAND. LLJ DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT WILL HELP KEEP A MIXED ATMOSPHERE UNDER CLOUDY SKIES...KEEPING MINIMUM TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL...MID TO UPPER 70S MOST LOCATIONS. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...RAIN IS A GOOD BET ESPECIALLY SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...THANKS TO THE COMBINATION OF A SLOW-MOVING BOUNDARY OVERHEAD AND A JUICY ATMOSPHERE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OVER 2 INCHES. WILL CARRY LIKELY POPS ESPECIALLY SAT AFTERNOON...WITH PROBABLY THE BEST WIDESPREAD QPF THE ILM CWA HAS SEEN IN A FEW WEEKS. PRECIP CHANCES DIMINISH LATER SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS A WEAK UPPER TROF SLIPS OFF THE COAST...GIVING WAY TO THE BUILDING RIDGE FROM THE DEEP SOUTH. STILL A LOT OF LOW- LEVEL MOISTURE...AND SHOULD BE PLENTY OF BOUNDARIES AROUND IF SATURDAY CONVECTION PANS OUT. THEREFORE HAVE MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS THRU THE DAY ON SUNDAY. MAX TEMPS WILL LEAN TOWARD THE COOLER NAM MOS...ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY BUT THAT STILL GETS US AROUND 90. MIN TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO AND ON THE HIGH SIDE OF GUIDANCE...MID 70S SAT NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...DOG DAYS OF SUMMER WILL BE IN FULL SWING AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE DEEP SOUTH FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. BY LATE TUESDAY 850MB TEMPS WARM TO +22C BUT ENOUGH OF A SUBSIDENCE SIGNATURE THAT THE BIGGER STORY MAY BE OPPRESSIVE HUMIDITY AS THE DEPTH OF MIXING IS LIMITED. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 90 AT THE COAST TO MID 90S INLAND...BUT DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER/MID-70S TO MAKE IT FEEL LIKE 100+. BEST SHOT AT MEETING ADVISORY WILL BE TUESDAY AND PERHAPS WEDNESDAY WITH MOISTURE POOLED ALONG A WEAK COLD FRONT. MIN TEMPS WELL ABOVE CLIMO...AND AT THEIR WARMEST ON TUE NIGHT A FEW LOCATIONS WILL NOT EVEN DIP BELOW 80. THE FRONT SHOULD ACTUALLY MAKE IT OFF THE COAST WEDNESDAY OR WED NIGHT...BUT WILL ONLY KNOCK TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS BACK DOWN AROUND CLIMO FOR THURSDAY. POPS REMAIN LIMITED TO DIURNAL SLIGHT CHANCE THRU THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 12Z...MODERATE CONFIDENCE TODAY DUE TO SHOWERS/TSTMS AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS. TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME BEING ADVECTED NORTHWARD BETWEEN BERMUDA HIGH AND UPPER LOW OVER THE GOM WILL CREATE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS THE AREA. CURRENT REGIONAL MOSAIC DEPICTS A LARGE AREA OF HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE WATERS AND THESE WILL REPEATEDLY MOVE INLAND INTO ILM/CRE/MYR DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT TEMPO IFR WILL OCCUR WITHIN THESE SHOWERS...AND ALTHOUGH GENERALLY PREFER NOT TO USE TEMPO IFR...FEEL THIS IS THE BEST METHOD TO HANDLE THE SITUATION TODAY. GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT BEST LIFT/MOISTURE WILL OCCUR THROUGH EARLY AFTN AT THE COAST BEFORE TRANSITIONING INLAND SO BEST CHANCE OF IFR WILL BE DURING THE FIRST SEVERAL HOURS OF THIS VALID PERIOD. HAVE CARRIED VCTS/VCSH THROUGH TONIGHT AT THE COAST ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE DECREASES TONIGHT. INLAND TERMINALS WILL REMAIN DRY THIS MORNING BUT DIURNAL TSTMS ARE LIKELY THIS AFTN. CONFIDENCE LOW IN TIMING/PLACEMENT SO HAVE OPTED FOR SCT CB AND WILL AMD AS NECESSARY. BY TONIGHT GUIDANCE HINTING AT SOME NVA AND SUBSIDENCE BEHIND A S/W TROUGH AT THE SAME TIME THAT BUFR PROFILES TRY TO DRY OUT AT LEAST SLIGHTLY. BELIEVE THERE MAY BE A DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL COVERAGE OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH PROFILES ATTM DO NOT INDICATE NEAR SURFACE SATURATION...EXPECT WITH ANY CLEARING THAT STRATUS WILL DEVELOP SO HAVE MENTIONED FEW/SCT FOR NOW AND WILL UPDATE WITH LATER ISSUANCES. WINDS WILL STEADILY INCREASE FROM THE S/SW TODAY...GUSTING TO 20 KTS AT THE COAST...AND STAYING ELEVATED THROUGH THE END OF THIS VALID PERIOD. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND. PRECIP CHANCES DECREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 3:00 AM FRIDAY...MODERATE SWLY FLOW AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE BERMUDA HIGH EARLY TODAY WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING WINDS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW LEVEL JET. WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WITH SEAS PICKING UP TO 4 TO 6 FT. WILL BE ISSUING A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AS A RESULT. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL ALSO INCREASE TODAY WITH THE APPROACH OF A TROPICAL WAVE FROM THE SOUTH. SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT WILL MEANDER NEAR THE CAROLINA COAST FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. LOOK FOR A WEAKENING SW WIND ON SATURDAY...PROBABLY GOING LIGHT AND VARIABLE ON SUNDAY WITH THE FRONT DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. SEAS WILL INITIALIZE AT 4-5 FT SATURDAY MORNING WITH A GRADUAL SUBSIDING TREND FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. SEMI-PERMANENT 9-SEC SE SWELL IS THERE BUT NOT TOO PRONOUNCED. LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND DISSIPATING FRONT OFF THE SC/GA COAST WILL MAINTAIN AN EASTERLY WIND INITIALLY. FLOW WILL COME AROUND TO THE SOUTH MONDAY AS THE FRONT BECOMES MORE WASHED OUT...AND THE HIGH RETREATS OFFSHORE AND IS ABSORBED INTO THE BERMUDA HIGH. WINDS WILL REMAIN QUITE LIGHT...WITH TUESDAY ONLY APPROACHING 15 KT AS A PIEDMONT TROF BECOMES MORE PRONOUNCED. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$