AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1040 PM EDT WED MAY 11 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF UPPER DISTURBANCES DROPPING SOUTHWARD OVER THE CAROLINAS
ALONG WITH A STALLED SURFACE BOUNDARY OVER THE AREA...WILL MAINTAIN
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. STORMS LATER TODAY COULD BECOME SEVERE OVER
INLAND SOUTH CAROLINA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE NORTH
TONIGHT INTO LATE WEEK. LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE EASTERN CAROLINAS THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 PM WEDNESDAY...JUST ENOUGH RIDGING FROM THE NORTH HAS
BROUGHT DOWN STABLE AIR ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND
BASICALLY A PCPN-LESS FORECAST. THE BEST AREA OF SFC CONVERGENCE
WILL LIE ALONG THE SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY EXTENDING FROM THE
MOUNTAINS OF NC AND SC. THIS KEEPS THE MAJORITY OF THE CONVECTION
WEST OF THE ILM CWA. A FEW RENEGADE SHOWERS/POSSIBLE TSRA COULD
AFFECT THE WESTERNMOST PORTIONS OF THE ILM CWA IF AND ANY WEAK S/W
TROFS ALOFT DO DROP SSE BUT THIS ACTIVITY WILL HAVE LITTLE OR NO
CAPE TO WORK WITH. MIN TEMPS LOOKED GOOD...ONLY TWEAK MADE WAS TO
DROP A FEW DEGREES ACROSS THE NE PORTIONS OF THE ILM CWA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE AND SURFACE FEATURE WILL
SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW EXPECTED TO SET UP
BY FRIDAY.  PRESENTLY...WE ARE CARRYING A DRY FORECAST THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT BUT IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT ISOLATED STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  AS THE STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE MID SECTIONS OF THE COUNTRY GETS A LITTLE
CLOSER FRIDAY...THERE IS A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE PERIOD...GOING FROM 75 TO AROUND 80 THURSDAY TO
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...STILL A LOW-CONFIDENCE FORECAST AND AN
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN AS SURFACE AND UPPER TROFINESS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE EXTENDED. STATIONARY FRONT WILL BE ORIENTED
NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS...AND THE
TIMING OF ANY UPPER IMPULSES ALOFT WILL DETERMINE WHEN OUR RAIN
CHANCES WILL ACTUALLY OCCUR. KNOWING THAT WE CANNOT NAIL DOWN SAID
TIMING THIS FAR OUT...WILL BLANKET THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH CHANCE
POPS. CLOUD COVER AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL LIMIT DIURNAL TEMP
RANGES...SO TEMPS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL BY DAY...AND JUST
ABOVE BY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR THROUGH THE END OF THE
FORECAST...WITH LOW CONFIDENCE OF POSSIBLE MVFR FOG DEVELOPMENT IN
THE PRE-DAWN HOURS.

CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SPRINKLES HERE AND THERE...BUT NOT CONFIDENT
ANY LIGHT SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY EAST
SHIFTING MORE SE THURSDAY AFTN UP TO 8-10KTS POSSIBLE. ATTM...HAVE
OPTED TO NOT INCLUDE FOG AT ANY TERMINALS IN FORECAST DUE TO
FORECASTED CLOUD COVER. HOWEVER...WITH RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM
PREVIOUS SHRA ACTIVITY AND LIGHT WINDS...IF CLOUDS HAPPEN TO CLEAR
OUT MORE THAN EXPECTED...POSSIBLE MVFR FOG COULD DEVELOP. WILL
UPDATE AS NEEDED IN LATER TAF ISSUANCES.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION
POSSIBLE EACH DAY THROUGH SATURDAY. MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. LOCALIZED IFR POSSIBLE EACH MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 PM WEDNESDAY...NE TO EAST WINDS 10 TO 15 KT WILL AFFECT
THE FORECAST AREA...WITH THE NE DIRECTION NORTH OF CAPE FEAR AND
EASTERLY DIRECTION SOUTH OF THE CAPE. SPEEDS WILL BE CLOSER TO 15 KT
CAPE FEAR NORTHWARD...AND CLOSER TO 10 KT SOUTH OF THE CAPE. THE
HIER SPEEDS AND NE DIRECTION ARE DUE TO BETTER SFC GRADIENT BETWEEN
THE HIGH SQUEEZING SOUTHWARD...AND THE EXPANSIVE NORTH ATLANTIC LOW.
SEAS WILL BE A COMBINED AND MORE PREDOMINATE NE-ENE 2-3 FOOT SWELL
AND LOCALLY GENERATED SHORT PERIOD WIND WAVES.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE DRIFTING TO THE EAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD...EXPECT WINDS TO GRADUALLY SHIFT FROM NE TO E
THROUGH SE TO S.  SPEEDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE 15 KT OR LESS
WITH SEAS GENERALLY RUNNING 4 FT OR LESS.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO
THE WINDS BUT FAIRLY LOW CONFIDENCE IN EVERYTHING ELSE. WILL
INITIALIZE WITH A SE WIND ON SATURDAY...BUT COMING AROUND TO DUE
SOUTH BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND REMAINING OUT OF THE S-SSW FOR THE
REST OF THE PERIOD. ANY WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE
STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE CAROLINAS WILL AFFECT THE DIRECTION...AND
WIND SPEEDS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON HOW CLOSE THE FRONT IS TO THE
COAST. AT THIS POINT 15-20 KT APPEARS TO BE THE UPPER LIMIT. SEAS
SHOULD STAY BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS...GENERALLY 3-4 FT BUT COULD TOUCH
5 FT AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY ALONG FRYING PAN SHOALS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$