AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 315 AM EDT MON APR 18 2011 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND OFFSHORE TODAY. FAIR WEATHER ACCOMPANIED BY A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED INTO MID-WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES ANCHORED OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY AND POSSIBLY BACK TO THE NORTH AGAIN BY THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 3:00 AM MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF CHS EARLY THIS MORNING...WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE FURTHER OFFSHORE THROUGH THE PERIOD. ALTHOUGH THE HIGH WILL MOVE WELL OFFSHORE...IT WILL RIDGE BACK ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE DRAPED WELL N OF THE AREA THIS PERIOD WITH WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE CAUSING THE FRONT TO OSCILLATE FROM S TO N AND THEN BACK AGAIN. A SERIES OF MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THIS PERIOD...ONE THIS MORNING AND ANOTHER LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVE. MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL PRECEDE THESE WEAK WAVES. RETURN FLOW AROUND THE ATLANTIC HIGH WILL BRING A MORE MOIST AND WARMER AIRMASS BACK ACROSS THE AREA. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL RISE FROM A THIRD OF AN INCH TODAY TO AROUND THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH TONIGHT. MOST OF THIS HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT AIR WILL BE FOUND IN THE LOWEST 2 KFT. WINDS ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER...FROM THE S AND THEN SW WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 25 KT TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD PRECLUDE A WIDESPREAD AND SIGNIFICANT FOG EVENT...BUT GIVEN THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND MOISTURE PROFILES...WE WOULD EXPECT STRATUS TO DEVELOP FROM S TO N. WILL INCLUDE PATCHY FOG AT THIS TIME AS STRATUS DECK MAY LOWER TO THE GROUND WITH TIME. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3:00 AM MONDAY...500MB RIDGE WILL BUILD SLIGHTLY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH THE HEAT INCREASING POSSIBLY INTO THE UPPER 80S INLAND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. MET NUMBERS ARE THE WARMEST AND APPEAR TO BE A BIT ON THE HIGH SIDE WITHOUT A DOWNSLOPING FLOW. A STRONG SHORTWAVE RIDING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL ALLOW HEIGHTS TO FALL AND MOVE A FRONT TO THE DOORSTEP BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. HAVE ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES FOR LATE WEDNESDAY/ EARLY THURSDAY. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 3:00 AM MONDAY...MAIN FEATURES REMAIN IN PLACE REGARDING THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THURSDAY LINGERING JUST SOUTH INTO FRIDAY. HAVE SOLID POPS FOR THURSDAY INTO THE EVENING TO ADDRESS ANY INHERENT TIMING ISSUES. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE NOW ADVERTISING MORE TROUGHING OUT WEST THAN PREVIOUS CYCLES. THIS INCREASES THE CHANCES OF A WARM AND DRY WEEKEND FOR OUR REGION AS BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS. FOR NOW THE UPCOMING WEEKEND LOOKS DRY AND SEASONABLE REGARDING TEMPERATURES. && .AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 06Z...WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL TONIGHT AND MONDAY... EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREDOMINATE. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF MVFR FOG BEFORE DAYBREAK BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW IN THAT TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST PRESENTLY. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR THROUGH TUESDAY. LOW CONFIDENCE IN FOG WEDNESDAY MORNING. CHANCE OF SHOWERS THURSDAY. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 125 AM MONDAY...CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MIGRATE ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH DAYBREAK. THIS WILL RESULT IN WIND SPEEDS DIMINISHING TO 10 KT OR LESS...AND DIRECTIONS TEMPORARILY BECOMING VARIABLE. WITH THE HIGH CONTINUING TO TRACK ENE AND FURTHER OFFSHORE...BACKSIDE FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL ENSUE WITH ONSHORE SE-S FLOW AROUND 10 KT BECOMING COMMONPLACE DURING THE DAY MONDAY. SUBSIDING TREND WITH SEAS WILL OCCUR TONIGHT THEN HOLD RELATIVELY STEADY MONDAY AS SYNOPTIC ONSHORE FLOW...ALBEIT WEAK...AIDS SEAS DEVELOPMENT. IN GENERAL...SEAS WILL RUN 2 TO 4 FT. SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3:00 AM MONDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PICK UP STEAM THROUGH THE PERIOD FROM 10-15 KNOTS TO NEAR 20 KNOTS BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS COURTESY OF AN INCREASING GRADIENT AS A FRONT MOVES CLOSER FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE LATEST SWAN SEAS INCREASE FROM 2-4 FEET TO 3-5 FEET BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 3:00 AM MONDAY...COLD FRONT IS KNOCKING ON THE DOOR OF THE COASTAL WATERS INITIALLY AS A SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES. THIS FLOW WILL BACK TO THE NORTHEAST BY THURSDAY EVENING ACROSS ALL WATERS AS THE BOUNDARY SLIPS SOUTH. THERE COULD BE A SURGE OR TWO OF STRONGER WINDS WITH THIS FLOW BUT ALL BUT IMPOSSIBLE TO TIME THIS FAR OUT. HAVE MAINTAINED A RANGE OF 10-15 KNOTS. THE FLOW WILL KICK UP SEAS TO 3-5 FEET. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SHK