AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1033 PM EDT SUN APR 17 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND
OFFSHORE MONDAY. FAIR WEATHER ACCOMPANIED BY A WARMING TREND IS
EXPECTED INTO MID WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES ANCHORED OFFSHORE
FROM THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST. VIA THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH LATE IN THE WEEK...POSSIBLY STALLING OVER THE
REGION INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 PM SUNDAY...BASICALLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WHICH WILL PUSH
THE CENTER OF SFC HIGH ACROSS THE ILM CWA OVERNIGHT AND OFFSHORE
FROM THE CAROLINAS DURING MONDAY. LOW MEAN RHS PROGGED THROUGH THE
ATM COLUMN...AND ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. COULD
SEE OCCASIONAL SCT/BKN THIN/OPAQUE HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE SLIDE MAINLY
NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY. WILL CONTINUE WITH
MAINLY CLEAR SKY CONDITIONS FOR THE OVERNIGHT AS THE CENTER OF THE
HIGH MIGRATES ACROSS THE FA TONIGHT...AND OFFSHORE MONDAY. CALM
WINDS WILL ENSUE ACROSS THE AREA AS THE SFC BASED INVERSION QUICKLY
DEVELOPS AT OR JUST AFTER SUNSET. WILL BE LOOKING AT EXCELLENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WITH THE NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS
DROPPING A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 40 DEGREES...IE. THE RAWS BACK
ISLAND STATION IN PENDER COUNTY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFF THE COAST ON MONDAY. IN
THE MID LEVELS FLOW WILL REMAIN QUITE ZONAL HELPING TO KEEP SKY
CLEAR. TEMPERATURES IN THE AFTERNOON WILL BE PUSHED BACK TO THEIR
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS BY THE WEAK RETURN FLOW. CONTINUED WARM AND
MOIST ADVECTION WILL KEEP MONDAY NIGHT LOWS A FEW DEGREES MILDER
THAN NORMAL. BUILDING HEIGHTS ALOFT MEANWHILE WILL WORK IN TANDEM
WITH THE SURFACE RETURN FLOW TUESDAY TO PUSH TEMPS MORE
SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE CLIMO. CLEAR SKIES GENERALLY EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE EVEN AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES SLIGHTLY OFFSHORE LATE TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...FLAT RIDGING ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THRU THE
EXTENDED. AS A RESULT TEMPS WILL GENERALLY RUN ABOVE CLIMO THRU THE
PERIOD...ESPECIALLY INLAND. COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT...SO LOW
CHANCE POPS BEGINNING ON THURSDAY. HELD ON TO A LOW CHANCE INTO
FRIDAY AS THERE IS SOME QUESTION OF THE FRONT HANGING UP AS IT
BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE FLOW ALOFT.  FOR NOW WILL DRY THINGS OUT
FRIDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE
REASSERTS ITSELF. GENERAL ONSHORE WIND DIRECTION...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY...WILL MEAN NEARLY 10 DEGREES DIFFERENCE IN MAX TEMPS
FROM INLAND TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL TONIGHT AND
MONDAY...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREDOMINATE.  THERE IS A SMALL
CHANCE OF MVFR FOG BEFORE DAYBREAK BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW IN THAT
TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST PRESENTLY.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR THROUGH TUESDAY. LOW CONFIDENCE IN FOG
WEDNESDAY MORNING. CHANCE OF SHOWERS THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 PM SUNDAY...CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MIGRATE ACROSS
THE ILM WATERS BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND DAYBREAK MONDAY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN WIND SPEEDS DIMINISHING TO 10 KT OR LESS...AND DIRECTIONS
TEMPORARILY BECOMING VARIABLE. WITH THE HIGH CONTINUING TO TRACK ENE
AND FURTHER OFFSHORE...BACKSIDE FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL ENSUE WITH
ONSHORE SE-S FLOW AROUND 10 KT BECOMING COMMONPLACE DURING THE DAY
MONDAY. SUBSIDING TREND WITH SEAS WILL OCCUR TONIGHT THEN HOLD
RELATIVELY STEADY MONDAY AS SYNOPTIC ONSHORE FLOW...ALBEIT WEAK...
AIDS SEAS DEVELOPMENT. IN GENERAL...SEAS WILL RUN 2 TO 4 FT.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...A LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED
ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS WELL OFF THE COAST
IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. FAIRLY MINIMAL SEAS ARE THUS
EXPECTED...BEING COMPRISED OF A WIND CHOP AND SLIGHT EASTERLY SWELL.
A SLIGHT VEER TO SOUTHWESTERLY IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY AS THE HIGH
EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS TOWARDS FLORIDA AND THE BAHAMAS. SOME
OSCILLATIONS IN WIND SPEED BETWEEN 10 KT AND 10 TO 15 KT ARE
EXPECTED AS THE GRADIENT UNDERGOES SOME FLUCTUATIONS THAT ARE HARD
TO TIME THIS FAR IN ADVANCE. SEAS NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE MUCH AND
WILL STAY IN THE 2 TO 3 FT RANGE FOR THE MOST PART.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...SW FLOW WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AHEAD OF A WEAK
AND SLOWING COLD FRONT. EVEN WITH WIND SPEEDS GENERALLY AROUND 15
KT...THE PERSISTENT AND OPEN FETCH ALONG WITH A 2-3 FT ESE SWELL
WILL SUPPORT SEAS UP TO 5 FT ALONG FRYING PAN SHOALS.

WINDS WILL COME AROUND TO ENE AFTER FROPA THURSDAY NIGHT. FRONT IS
SUFFICIENTLY WEAK THAT 15 KT SHOULD COVER IT. TRAJECTORY IS STILL
ONSHORE AND THE SWELL WILL PERSIST...SO 4-5 FT SEAS A GOOD BET
ESPECIALLY FROM CAPE FEAR NORTH.


&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$