AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1045 PM EDT THU JUL 28 2011

.DISCUSSION...
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...SHOWERS WITH A STRAY
THUNDERSTORM PROLIFERATED ACROSS THE UPPER KEYS AND THE ADJACENT
NEARSHORE AND OFFSHORE WATERS INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY. OUTSIDE OF ANY
SHOWERS...SKIES ARE PARTLY CLOUDY WITH TEMPERATURES HOLDING IN THE
MID 80S ALONG THE ISLAND CHAIN. SURFACE WISE...A RESPECTABLE (1020
MB) WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE LIES ACROSS THE NORTHERN FLORIDA WITH
TYPICAL LOWER PRESSURE IN THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN SEA. AS A
RESULT...EAST WINDS AVERAGE NEAR 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 25
KNOTS. OTHERWISE...OUR EVENING SOUNDING REVEALED AVERAGE MOISTURE
(PWAT 1.78 INCHES) BUT WITH COPIOUS FUEL/ MOISTURE AVAILABLE BELOW
750 MB. LITTLE IF ANY CONVECTIVE INHIBITION WITHIN A DEEP EASTERLY
FLOW IS EVIDENT.

.SHORT TERM...
OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS..MOISTURE HAS INCREASED BELOW 700 MB WITH
FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY WINDS REACHING WELL INTO THE TROPOSPHERE.
GIVEN NO CONVECTIVE INHIBITION...THE FRESH TO STRONG EAST TO
SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL PROVIDE GOOD MOISTURE FLUX TO GENERATE SCATTERED
30 TO 40 PERCENT POPS ALONG THE KEYS ISLAND CHAIN. OUTSIDE OF A
SPELL OF HEAVY RAINFALL...OCCASIONAL BREEZY CONDITIONS UNDER MAINLY
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID
80S. SINCE THE CURRENT PUBLIC ZONE FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK...NO
UPDATES ARE PLANNED.
&&

.MARINE...
OUR EVENING SOUNDING INDICATED EAST WINDS OF 17 AND 19 KNOTS AT 1
AND 2 THOUSAND FEET RESPECTIVELY WHICH COINCIDES WITH THE KBYX VWP.
WITH THE FORMIDABLE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE REMAINING STEADY STATE
AND ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 24 TO 36
HOURS...MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS WITH OCCASIONAL LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON LULLS WILL PERSIST ON ALL KEYS COASTAL WATERS.
SUBSEQUENTLY...A SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINE WILL
BE KEPT OVERNIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
OVERNIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT THE KEY WEST AND
MARATHON ISLAND TERMINALS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT THE ISLANDS. BRIEF MVFR/IFR CIGS AND/OR
VIS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ANY FAST MOVING SHOWERS THAT DUE MANAGE TO
IMPACT THE TERMINALS. ISOLATED WIND GUSTS NEAR 30 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN A STRONGER SHOWERS AS WELL. WITHIN MAINLY EAST WINDS OF 20 TO
25 KNOTS WILL EXTEND FROM JUST OFF THE SURFACE THROUGH AT LEAST
25000 FEET AT EYW AND MTH.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$