AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
929 PM CDT THU JUL 7 2011

.UPDATE...
RADAR INDICATES THAT ISOLATED CONVECTION THAT DEVELOP NEAR THE
COAST WITH THE SEA-BREEZE HAVE LONG SINCE DISSIPATED...LEAVING A
RATHER STABLE BUT MOIST ATMOSPHERE. UPPER AIR SOUNDING SHOWS PWAT
NEAR 2 INCHES...SO THERE MAY BE SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION DEVELOP
IN THE COASTAL WATERS OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...WITH NORTHEAST FLOW
NOTED ON THE UPPER AIR SOUNDING AND VAD ABOVE 5K FEET...ANY
NOCTURNAL ACTIVITY SHOULD STAY OFFSHORE.

LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER HOT AND MUGGY DAY ON FRIDAY WITH JUST ISOLATED
CONVECTION DURING MAX DAYTIME HEATING AS FORECAST AREA REMAINS
SANDWICHED BETWEEN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AND UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHERN GULF.

RUA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 634 PM CDT THU JUL 7 2011/

DISCUSSION...
00Z TAF PACKAGE.

AVIATION...
A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LEFT ON THE RADAR
SCOPE...NONE OF WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT A TERMINAL BEFORE
DISSIPATING AS DAYTIME INSTABILITY WANES. VFR IS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. ISOLATED CONVECTION
IS AGAIN POSSIBLE TOMORROW...BUT LIMITED PROBABILITY/COVERAGE
PRECLUDE MENTION AT THIS TIME.

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 PM CDT THU JUL 7 2011/

SYNOPSIS...THE SEABREEZE HAS PROVEN EVEN WEAKER THAN ADVERTISED
THIS AFTERNOON WITH WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CONFINED TO THE
COASTAL MARSHES. SHOULD SEE AN EARLY END TO THIS ACTIVITY WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AS RIDGING REESTABLISHES ITSELF FROM THE
SURFACE TO MID LEVELS. SPARSELY SEPARATED STRAY THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD BE THE TREND OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS DESPITE THE WEAK
TUTT LOW HEADING TO THE LOWER RIO GRANDE AREA THIS WEEKEND AND PUTTING
THE AREA IN THE WET SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. THERE LOOKS TO BE JUST TOO
MUCH RIDGING BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, PRODUCING
SUFFICIENT CONVECTIVE INIBITION TO SUPPRESS OUR PRECIP COVERAGE TO
THE BARELY MENTIONABLE VARIETY...LESS THAN CLIMO.

SHORT TERM...WENT HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE ON POPS FOR FRIDAY BUT
STILL LESS THAN CLIMO DUE TO WEAK SHORT WAVE ENERGY AND CONTINUED
K-INDICES IN THE UNSTABLE 30S WITH HIGH PWS. THE AFOREMENTION MID
LEVEL RIDGING SHOULD LIMIT COVERAGE AND CONVECTIVE MOTION BECAUSE
OF THE SUBSIDENCE. TEMPS SHOULD ACCORDINGLY BE AT OR ABOVE GUIDANCE.

LONG TERM...PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK
AS THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WEAKENS.

SWEENEY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  75  95  77  94  77 /  10  20  10  20  10
KBPT  76  94  77  94  77 /  10  20  10  20  10
KAEX  72  98  75  97  75 /   0  20  10  20  20
KLFT  75  94  76  94  76 /  10  20  10  20  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$