AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
115 PM CDT THU JUL 7 2011

.DISCUSSION...
FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
REGIONAL 88DS MUCH QUIETER TODAY THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY...
BASICALLY JUST WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS LIMITED TO THE SEA BREEZE
NEAR THE COASTLINE. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO MOVE INLAND WITH THE
BOUNDARY OVER THE COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH COVERAGE LOOKS
LOW ENOUGH ATTM TO KEEP JUST A VICINITY MENTION IN THE TAFS. WITH
ADDITIONAL HEATING WILL ALSO SEE A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOP AHEAD OF
THE SEA BREEZE. EXCEPT FOR AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE SEA BREEZE...
WHEN SRLY FLOW AROUND 10 KNOT IS EXPECTED...A LOOSE GRADIENT
REGIME WILL TRANSLATE TO A LIGHT AND VARIABLE FLOW THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1008 AM CDT THU JUL 7 2011/

UPDATE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OFF PATTERSON WILL ALLOW FOR A WEAK
SEABREEZE THIS AFTERNOON. COULD BE SOME ADDITONAL DEVELOPMENT OF
TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AROUND LOWER SE TX AND SW LA DUE TO A LEFT FRONT
QUADRANT OF THE H2 JET. SOME NVA AROUND S CEN LA LATER ON TODAY. SO
WILL ADJUST POPS ACCORDINGLY A BIT LOWER FOR ACADIANA AND HIGHER
FOR SE TX AND SW LA...TO A UNIFORM 20 POP FOR ALL. SHOULD BE LESS
CLOUD COVER TODAY SO TWEAKED TEMPS UP A DEGREE. TOOK A HARD LOOK
AT HEAT INDICES AND WE LOOK WELL BELOW THE ADVISORY THRESHOLD.

SWEENEY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 617 AM CDT THU JUL 7 2011/

AVIATION...
VFR WX AT ALL SITES THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE CLOUDS BECOME ESTABLISH. ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 308 AM CDT THU JUL 7 2011/

DISCUSSION...RAIN CHANCES WILL AGAIN BE THE MAIN CHALLENGE THIS
FORECAST PERIOD.  DIURNAL SHOWERS AND STORMS AGAIN DEVELOPED ON
WEDNESDAY WITH MOST OF THE ACTIVITY OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF
FORECAST AREA.  SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS ARE AGAIN DEVELOPING
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS SOUTH OF VERMILION BAY AND EXTENDING
INTO THE OFFSHORE WATERS. THE THU 00Z SOUNDING REMAINS VIRTUALLY
UNCAPPED WITH PWATS AROUND 2 INCHES.  WILL MAINTAIN LOW POPS OVER
THE AREA TODAY BUT WILL GO SLIGHTLY HIGHER OVER ACADIANA REGION
WHERE BETTER MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS PROGGED.  MODELS CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY MOVE UPPER LOW WESTWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SLIGHTLY LOWER
PWATS AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER MID LEVEL THICKNESSES ARE PROGGED DURING
THAT TIME SO WILL TREND TO LOW POPS BEGINNING FRIDAY AND CONTINUING
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.  GFS AND TO SOME EXTENT THE HI RES ECMWF
HINTS AT DEVELOPMENT OF UPPER SHEAR AXIS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. WILL THEREFORE HAVE SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS
TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST CYCLE. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECASTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES LIKELY TO
TREND ABOVE NORMAL BY LATE IN THE WEEK.

MARINE...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING
SHOWERS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. ACTIVITY
SHOULD LESS AS UPPER LOW SHIFTS FURTHER WESTWARD. AT THE
SURFACE...VERY BROAD HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE WITH LIGHT WINDS
AND LOW SEAS ANTICIPATED.

04

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  92  76  93  76  92 /  20  10  20  10  20
KBPT  94  76  96  75  95 /  20  10  20  10  20
KAEX  96  73  94  74  94 /  20  10  20  10  20
KLFT  91  75  92  74  92 /  20  10  20  10  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$