AFDLCH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA 1203 AM CDT THU MAY 12 2011 .AVIATION...A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. THE INITIAL WAVE HAS SET OFF SOME SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS. INCLUDED CB FOR LCH AND BPT AND THEN VCTS BY MORNING AS THESE WAVES MOVE THROUGH. LFT, ARA AND AEX WILL BE AFFECTED UNTIL EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND ADDED VCTS FOR THOSE LOCATIONS. OTHERWISE MVFR CIGS LOOK TO REFORM AT BPT AND HANG IN AT LCH WITH POSSIBLE MVFR FOG AND IFR CIGS AROUND DAYBREAK. SWEENEY && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 952 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2011/ UPDATE... ISSUING A QUICK UPDATE TO THE ZONES TO ADD THUNDER TO THE INTERIOR SERN TX ZONES AS LATEST LIGHTNING PLOT SHOWS A FEW STRIKES. EXPECT ANY THUNDER TO END AROUND MIDNIGHT AS ATMOSPHERE SHOULD GRADUALLY STABILIZE. 25 PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 931 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2011/ DISCUSSION... REGIONAL 88DS SHOW A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUING OVER THE WRN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE MOISTURE IS A LITTLE DEEPER AND LESS CAPPING EXISTS PER AREA 00Z SOUNDINGS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 00Z U/A ANALYSIS SHOWS A SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE CROSSING CNTL TX THIS EVENING...HELPING FIRE STORMS ALONG A QUASI- CONVECTIVE SYSTEM FROM CNTL TX THROUGH NERN TX AND THE ARKLATEX. LATEST SUITE OF MODEL RUNS...INCLUDING LOCAL 4KM WRF...SHOW THIS FEATURE WEAKENING/DISSIPATING BEFORE REACHING THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. IN FACT THE LOCAL WRF KEEPS THE CWA DRY UNTIL TOMORROW. HOWEVER BELIEVE SOME LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT OVER MAINLY INTERIOR SERN TX SO HAVE KEPT SLIM POPS IN PLACE FOR THAT AREA. ELSEWHERE NUDGED OVERNIGHT TEMPS UP A BIT WITH DEWPOINTS RUNNING A LITTLE HIGHER THAN ANTICIPATED... ESPECIALLY THE SWRN ZONES. ALSO ADJUSTED WINDS...MAINLY NEAR THE COAST...BASED ON LATEST OBS. ALL OTHER GRIDS FINE AS IS. UPDATE OUT SHORTLY. 25 PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 637 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2011/ AVIATION...MVFR CIGS CONTINUE AROUND THE BPT TERMAINAL CLOSER TO A MOIST AXIS JUST WEST OF HOUSTON. THE REMAINDER OF THE TERMINASL ARE VFR WITH SCATTERED CLOUDS. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH TO AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR A REPEAT ON MVFR VIS AT LCH AND MVFR CIGS OVER ACADIANA LATE TONIGHT AS WINDS DIMINISH SOME MORE. THURSDAY MORNING VFR WITH SCATTERED CLOUDS FOR ALL EXCEPT BPT WHICH WILL SEE MVFR CIGS IMPROVE TO VFR. SWEENEY PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 416 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2011/ DISCUSSION... TONIGHT WILL BE A REPEAT OF THE LAST SEVERAL WEEKS WITH WARM OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES AND A GOOD RECOVER OF THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY. TOMORROW WILL START OFF LIKE THE LAST SEVERAL WEEKS "ALSO" WITH SKIES BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB BACK INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S ON SOUTHERLY WINDS. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OUT TO THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON WERE TRIGGERED BY THE DRY LINE WITH STORMS EXTENDING FROM DALLAS/FORT WORTH SOUTH TO KERRVILE...IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. RADAR IS INDICATING LIGHT RAIN OVER THE HOUSTON AREA BUT THIS IS MAINLY VIRGA. THE DRY-LINE SHOULD RETREAT BACK TO THE WEST OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OUT OF NORTH TEXAS TOMORROW MORNING AND WILL MARRY UP WITH THE DRY-LINE AND PUSH OFF TO THE EAST AND SOUTH. AS THIS HAPPENS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY WITH THE AREA MOVING EAST. THIS WILL GIVE US A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON. BUT RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE TOMORROW EVENING INTO FRIDAY. THIS LATEST FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROF FINALLY MOVES OUT OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO MO. NOT LOOKING FOR MORE THAN MAYBE .50 OF AN INCH WITH THIS LATEST SYSTEM. THIS LOOKS TO HAVE ONLY LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR PRODUCING SEVERE WEATHER WITH THE MAIN THREAT...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ANOTHER ISSUE IS THAT WE WE ARE LOOSING ABOUT 1/4 OF AN INCH PER DAY TO EVAPORATION... THEREFORE THIS DOES NOT LOOK TO BREAK THIS CONTINUING DROUGHT . THE OTHER GOOD NEWS WILL BE TEMPERATURES...THEY ARE EXPECTED TO MODERATE ON NORTHERLY WINDS. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY WITH NO FURTHER RAINFALL EXPECTED. 19 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... KLCH 73 86 70 86 64 / 10 20 50 50 20 KBPT 73 86 71 85 63 / 20 30 40 40 10 KAEX 71 89 69 85 61 / 20 30 40 50 30 KLFT 73 89 72 85 65 / 10 20 50 50 30 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...NONE. TX...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$