AFDLCH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA 1138 PM CDT FRI JUL 8 2011 .DISCUSSION... 06Z TAF ISSUANCE. && .AVIATION... NEW BAND OF SHRA/TSRA I-10 CORRIDOR...MOVING WSW @ 20-25 KTS. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT LCH/LFT TERMINALS WITH VCTS...WITH TEMPO TSRA THRU 08Z. THE ENHANCED INSTABILITY/LIFT IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN END OF THE MID/UPPER LOW JUST SOUTH OF THE LA COAST. DUE TO THE TRAJECTORY AND LOCATION OF THE MAIN AXIS...ONLY PUT VCSH FOR BPT/ARA. WITH THE WET GROUND FROM THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT SHRA/TSRA...MAY HAVE INTERMITTENT MVFR VSBY AT ARA/LFT/LCH TOWARDS SUNRISE. AFTER 15Z...VCSH PLACED IN BPT/LCH/LFT/ARA TERMINALS... UPGRADED TO VCTS TOWARDS 18-20Z WHEN THE SEA-BREEZE FRONT APPROACHES/MOVES THROUGH. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 927 PM CDT FRI JUL 8 2011/ UPDATE... THIS EVENINGS UPPER AIR SOUNDING FROM KLCH SHOWED HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE OVER 2 INCHES. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW JUST OFF THE SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA COAST MOVING SLOWLY TO THE WEST. RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND AN OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORM ROTATING AROUND THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE UPPER LOW AND ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA. USUALLY IN THIS SCENARIO WITH A MOIST ATMOSPHERE...NOCTURNAL SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL RE-DEVELOP AROUND THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LOW OVERNIGHT. THEREFORE...HAVE MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE GRIDS FOR THE ON-GOING ACTIVITY AND POSSIBLE RE-DEVELOPMENT...WITH 20 POPS FOR THE I-10 CORRIDOR AND TO THE SOUTH THROUGH THE NIGHT. RUA PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 629 PM CDT FRI JUL 8 2011/ DISCUSSION... 00Z TAF ISSUANCE. AVIATION... SHRA/TSRA OVER ARA RAPIDLY WEAKENING...WITH POSSIBLE MVFR CEILINGS FOR THE NEXT HOUR. WITH LOTS OF RAIN AROUND...MAY HAVE INTERMITTENT MVFR VSBY AT ARA/LFT TOWARDS SUNRISE. OTHER EVENTS...MARSH FIRES ACROSS W CAMERON PARISH COUPLE WITH A SW WIND HAVE RESTRICTED VSBY TO 4SM AT LCH THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS...AND MAY DO SO THE NEXT 4 HOURS OR SO THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...VFR EXPECTED. DML PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 PM CDT FRI JUL 8 2011/ DISCUSSION... SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED OVER THE NRN GULF PROVIDING AN ONSHORE LOW-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. MEANWHILE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW JUST OFF MARSH ISLAND PUSHING WWD AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE LOCATED FROM THE DESERT SW ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS. LOCAL 88D IMAGERY SHOWS WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE SEA BREEZE...WITH ADDITIONAL CONVECTION POSSIBLE ALONG ASSOCIATED OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. OTHERWISE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES PREVAIL WITH TEMPS IN THE 90S. NOT MANY CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE GRIDS/ZONES THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT ONGOING CONVECTION...WHICH AS STATED EARLIER WILL LIKELY SPREAD INLAND THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY...TO DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET WITH LOSS OF HEATING. A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS MAY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW ALOFT CONTINUES PUSHING WWD OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...AND SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD MAKE IT ASHORE OVER THE COASTAL ZONES. THEREAFTER EXPECT AT LEAST WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON WITH HEATING/SEA BREEZE/OUTFLOWS BEING PRIMARY LIFT MECHANISMS. POPS WILL BE A LITTLE HIGHER TOMORROW AS THE AREA LIES ON THE ERN EDGE OF THE LOW WHICH WILL USHER IN A LITTLE BETTER MOISTURE WHILE ALSO NUDGING THE RIDGE A LITTLE FARTHER NWD. POPS CLIMB SLIGHTLY AGAIN DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A WEAK WAVE IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE REGION. TEMPS WILL BE A BIG CONCERN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE ESTABLISHES ITSELF ALOFT AND DRIVES AFTERNOON READINGS TOWARD THE MID/UPPER 90S. MAXES ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO TOUCH TRIPLE-DIGITS ACROSS THE EXTREME NRN ZONES ON TUESDAY. AFTER A SLIGHT COOLDOWN FOR WEDNESDAY...READINGS BEGIN TO RISE AGAIN FOR LATE IN THE WEEK. MARINE... MAINLY LIGHT WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... KLCH 77 93 76 93 76 / 20 30 20 20 10 KBPT 78 93 76 94 77 / 20 30 20 20 10 KAEX 76 96 75 97 74 / 10 30 20 20 10 KLFT 76 93 76 94 76 / 20 30 20 20 10 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...NONE. TX...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$