AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1240 PM CDT FRI JUL 8 2011

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL WITH MAINLY SOME HIGH
CLOUDINESS TO AFFECT THE AREA TODAY. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OR
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTN BUT COVERAGE TOO LOW TO WARRANT
MENTION AT THIS TIME. DID INCLUDE VCSH AT KAEX THIS AFTN AS RADAR
SHOWS SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS DROPPING SOUTH BETWEEN JENA AND
NATCHEZ. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...LESS THAN 10 KT...AND GENERALLY SW
THROUGH THE PERIOD. 24

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1101 AM CDT FRI JUL 8 2011/

DISCUSSION...
HAVE SEEN A FEW SMALL SHOWERS POP UP ALREADY THIS MORNING...AND
GIVEN MOIST UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH REASONABLE TRIGGER TEMPS PER
MORNING SOUNDING SHOULD SEE WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
BREAK OUT AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. ALL THIS LIES WELL WITHIN THE
RANGE OF INHERITED SMALL POPS. ALL OTHER GRIDS IN GOOD SHAPE RIGHT
NOW AS WELL...THEREFORE NO UPDATE PLANNED ATTM.

25

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 716 AM CDT FRI JUL 8 2011/

AVIATION UPDATE...REGARDING 12Z TAF ISSUANCE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWING UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA.
SCATTERED TO BROKEN CIRRUS NOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA ASSOCIATED
WITH FEATURE. BELIEVE HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL PERSIST...AND WILL
BE SUFFICIENT TO MAINTAIN AFTERNOON HIGHS BELOW CONVECTIVE TEMPS.
ADDITIONALLY NORTHEAST FLOW ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL INHIBIT
ANY INLAND PENETRATION OF SEABREEZE. THUS NO MENTION OF RAINS AT
ANY TERMINALS. VFR TO CONTINUE WITH CLOUDS REMAINING OF THE HIGH
VARIETY.

MARCOTTE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 AM CDT FRI JUL 8 2011/

DISCUSSION...
THIS MORNINGS IR AND WATER VAPOR SATELLITES SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW SPINNING NEAR THE SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA COAST. THIS COMBINED
WITH A RIDGE CENTERED OVER NORTH TEXAS WILL PROVIDE OUR AREA WITH
A NORTHEAST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. DESPITE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ALOFT OVER SOUTHEAST
LOUSIANA AND THE EASTERN GULF COAST...OUR AREA WILL STILL SEE MORE THAN
ENOUGH MOISTURE TO KICK OFF ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BY THIS AFTERNOON AND EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

THE RIDGE BEGINS TO SLIDE EASTWARD BY SATURDAY EVENING AND
SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD BEGIN PUMPING ABUNDANT GULF MOISTURE BACK
INTO THE REGION BY MONDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR GREATER COVERAGE OF
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS BY MIDWEEK.

MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WILL KEEP WINDS LIGHT OUT OF
THE SOUTH THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. LAKES AND BAYS WILL
REMAIN GENERALLY CALM THROUGH THE PERIOD AND SEAS WILL REMAIN AT
1-2 FEET.

FIRE WEATHER...
LIGHTNING ACTIVITY WITH AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO START FIRES IN DROUGHT STRICKEN AREAS.

A REMINDER...BURN BANS REMAIN IN PLACE FOR ALL OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS
AND LOUISIANA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  95  77  94  76 /  20  10  20  10
KBPT  94  76  94  76 /  20  10  20  10
KAEX  98  75  97  75 /  20  10  20  10
KLFT  95  76  94  76 /  20  10  20  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$