AFDLIX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA 1157 PM CDT FRI JUL 8 2011 .AVIATION... SHRA NEAR KBTR IS DISSIPATING...SO AM EXPECTING MOST AREAS TO REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR TO SCATTERED WITH GOOD VSBYS AND MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. BRIEF MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE AS CUMULUS DEVELOP IN THE MORNING...THEN MOSTLY ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED COVERAGE SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON. PLACED A PROB30 GROUP IN ALL THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. 22/TD && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 332 PM CDT FRI JUL 8 2011/ SHORT TERM... TODAY IS VIRTUALLY THE SAME AS YESTERDAY BUT WITH EVEN LESS SHOWERS COVERAGE AS UPPER LEVEL LOW TRACKS WESTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF...NOW SOUTHWEST OF THE CWA. LOCAL ACTIVITY HAS BEEN MOSTLY LOCATED ALONG THE COASTAL PARISHES OF LOUISIANA WITH A SHOWER OR 2 ALONG THE MISS COAST. THIS MORNINGS SOUNDING HAD THE SAME AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AS 24HRS AGO SO EXPECTING VERY HEAVY RAINFALL THOUGH BRIEF WITH THESE STORMS. RAINFALL RATES COULD BE 2-3 INCHES PER HOUR AND SLOW MOVING. SO STREET FLOODING IS A POSSIBILITY THIS AFTN. TEMPS ON THE WARM SIDE STILL AGAIN TODAY BUT RIGHT IN LINE WITH THE FORECAST WITH MID 90S AREAWIDE AND HEAT INDICIES 100 TO 105. NO RELIEF IN SIGHT. LONG TERM... QUITE A BIT OF CONVECTION CONTINUES TO FIRE ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE. THIS ELONGATED TROUGH DID TRY SHOWING A FEW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION IMPROVEMENT FOR A SHORT PERIOD. GOOD NEWS IS THAT IT DID NOT PERSIST. WHILE A FEW SHORT RANGE MODELS SUCH AS THE LGEM/DSHIPS HAD BEEN SHOWING INTENSIFICATION...ITS NOT REALLY SURPRISE AS AN ASSUMPTION WITH INITIALIZATION WITH THESE MODELS IS THAT CLOSED LOW EXISTS. GENERAL CONSENSUS IS LOW TO ZERO PROBABILITY OF DEVELOPMENT OF THIS WAVE AS IT TRACKS NORTH ALONG THE WESTERN FLORIDA AND THEN INLAND. MEANWHILE...ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA...EXPECT CONTINUED HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS TO PERSIST WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THRU THE WEEKEND. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL TRACK EASTWARD TO NORTH OF THE AREA BY LATER THIS WEEKEND AND BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS INTO NEXT WEEK. WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 70S AND EVEN HOTTER TEMPS THAN CURRENT...HEAT ADVISORY CONDITIONS MAY BE COMING. ONLY HOPE IS THAT SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS DURING THAT TIME PLAY OUT AS FORECAST AS WE WILL BE ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. MEFFER AVIATION... VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HAVE REMOVED TEMPO GROUPS AT MOST LOCATIONS FOR TS FOR LACK OF COVERAGE AND WILL HANDLE AT THE INDIVIDUAL SITES BASED ON ANY DEVELOPMENT. MARINE... NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE COASTAL WATER FORECAST. SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN WILL REMAIN FAIRLY WEAK THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY SOUTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS OR EVEN LESS. THIS MEANS SEAS GENERALLY AROUND A FOOT PLUS OR MINUS 1 FOOT. MEFFER && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 72 95 74 96 / 20 30 20 20 BTR 75 95 76 95 / 20 20 20 20 ASD 76 94 76 94 / 20 30 20 20 MSY 78 93 77 93 / 20 30 20 20 GPT 77 93 77 93 / 20 40 20 20 PQL 74 93 73 93 / 20 40 20 20 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...NONE. GM...NONE. MS...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$