AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
332 PM CDT FRI JUL 8 2011

.SHORT TERM...
TODAY IS VIRTUALLY THE SAME AS YESTERDAY BUT WITH EVEN LESS SHOWERS
COVERAGE AS UPPER LEVEL LOW TRACKS WESTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GULF...NOW SOUTHWEST OF THE CWA. LOCAL ACTIVITY HAS BEEN MOSTLY
LOCATED ALONG THE COASTAL PARISHES OF LOUISIANA WITH A SHOWER OR 2
ALONG THE MISS COAST. THIS MORNINGS SOUNDING HAD THE SAME AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE AS 24HRS AGO SO EXPECTING VERY HEAVY RAINFALL THOUGH BRIEF
WITH THESE STORMS. RAINFALL RATES COULD BE 2-3 INCHES PER HOUR AND
SLOW MOVING. SO STREET FLOODING IS A POSSIBILITY THIS AFTN. TEMPS ON
THE WARM SIDE STILL AGAIN TODAY BUT RIGHT IN LINE WITH THE FORECAST
WITH MID 90S AREAWIDE AND HEAT INDICIES 100 TO 105. NO RELIEF IN
SIGHT.

.LONG TERM...
QUITE A BIT OF CONVECTION CONTINUES TO FIRE ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF
OF MEXICO ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE. THIS ELONGATED TROUGH DID
TRY SHOWING A FEW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION IMPROVEMENT FOR A SHORT
PERIOD. GOOD NEWS IS THAT IT DID NOT PERSIST. WHILE A FEW SHORT
RANGE MODELS SUCH AS THE LGEM/DSHIPS HAD BEEN SHOWING
INTENSIFICATION...ITS NOT REALLY SURPRISE AS AN ASSUMPTION WITH
INITIALIZATION WITH THESE MODELS IS THAT CLOSED LOW EXISTS. GENERAL
CONSENSUS IS LOW TO ZERO PROBABILITY OF DEVELOPMENT OF THIS WAVE AS
IT TRACKS NORTH ALONG THE WESTERN FLORIDA AND THEN INLAND.

MEANWHILE...ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA...EXPECT CONTINUED HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS TO PERSIST WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THRU
THE WEEKEND. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL TRACK EASTWARD TO NORTH OF THE
AREA BY LATER THIS WEEKEND AND BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS
INTO NEXT WEEK. WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 70S AND EVEN HOTTER TEMPS
THAN CURRENT...HEAT ADVISORY CONDITIONS MAY BE COMING. ONLY HOPE IS
THAT SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS DURING THAT TIME PLAY OUT AS FORECAST AS
WE WILL BE ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE.

MEFFER
&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HAVE
REMOVED TEMPO GROUPS AT MOST LOCATIONS FOR TS FOR LACK OF COVERAGE
AND WILL HANDLE AT THE INDIVIDUAL SITES BASED ON ANY DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.MARINE...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE COASTAL WATER FORECAST. SURFACE
PRESSURE PATTERN WILL REMAIN FAIRLY WEAK THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS
WILL REMAIN MOSTLY SOUTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS OR EVEN LESS. THIS
MEANS SEAS GENERALLY AROUND A FOOT PLUS OR MINUS 1 FOOT.

MEFFER
&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  72  95  74  96 /  20  30  20  20
BTR  75  95  76  95 /  20  20  20  20
ASD  76  94  76  94 /  20  30  20  20
MSY  78  93  77  93 /  20  30  20  20
GPT  77  93  77  93 /  20  40  20  20
PQL  74  93  73  93 /  20  40  20  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$