AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
340 AM CDT FRI JUL 8 2011

.SHORT TERM...
UPPER LEVELS WILL BE MAIN INTEREST FOR A FEW DAYS. UPPER LOW WILL
BEGIN TO QUICKLY MOVE WEST TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW THE UPPER MARINE
RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER FLA TO ALSO MOVE WEST. THE UPPER HIGH SHOULD
BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO INCREASE RAIN CHANCES BY SUNDAY. WE WILL SEE
THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN A MARINE UPPER RIDGE AND A CONTINENTAL ONE
BY THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. AS THE UPPER PANHANDLE OF TX AND
OKLAHOMA SIZZLE AND WE BEGIN TO SEE AN INPUT OF DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE UNDERNEATH THE MARINE RIDGE. MODELS ARE TRYING TO SHOW
THE UPPER LOW THAT HAS BEEN OFF OUR SHORELINE MOVING INTO TX THEN
NORTHEAST TO MISSOURI THEN BACK TOWARD THE SOUTH OVER OUR AREA
ONCE AGAIN BY NEXT WEEKEND. WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW THIS WORKS OUT
BUT IN THE MEANTIME...WE SHOULD BEGIN TO COOL A FEW DEGREES AS
DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA.

STRONG TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE EASTERN GULF IS BEING MONITORED.
THIS SYSTEM IS PROMISING TO GIVE FLA A LOT MORE RAIN OVER THE
COMING DAYS. WE WILL ONLY SEE A LITTLE BETTER CHANCE OF SH/TS EACH
DAY NEXT WEEK. LIGHT WINDS...DEEP MOISTURE...AND CONVERGENCE
BOUNDARIES WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE A CONDUCIVE ENVIRONMENT FOR
WATERSPOUT ACTIVITY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE IN PLACE AT ALL SITES AND THIS SHOULD
CONTINUE UNTIL CONVECTION DEVELOPS...IF IT DOES LATER THIS AFTN.
THERE IS ONLY SCT HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE REGION BUT BY 15-16Z LOOK FOR
FEW-SCT CU AT 4-5K FT. IF SHRA AND TSRA DEVELOP AND IMPACT TERMINALS
IT WILL LIKELY BE AFTER 18Z. /CAB/

&&

.MARINE...NO REAL ISSUES IN THE MARINE FCST. LIGHT WINDS AND LOW
SEAS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FCST AS MOSTLY WEAK ONSHORE FLOW IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. THE TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE ERN GULF IS HAS A
VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF DEVELOPING FURTHER AND WILL MOVE N AND THEN NE
OVER THE CNTRL/WRN FL PANHANDLE SO THIS WILL NOT HAVE ANY IMPACT ON
THE COASTAL WATERS. ONLY OTHER ISSUE AND MINOR ONE AT THAT ARE
TIDES. WE ARE MOVING TWRDS A SPRING TIDE RANGE LATE THIS WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT AND WITH SRLY FLOW PERSISTENT...ALTHOUGH NOT STRONG IT
MAY STILL CAUSE TIDES TO BE A LITTLE HIGHER THAN EXPECTED. /CAB/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  95  73  95  74 /  30  20  30  20
BTR  95  76  95  76 /  20  20  20  20
ASD  94  77  94  76 /  30  20  30  20
MSY  93  78  93  77 /  20  20  30  20
GPT  93  77  93  77 /  30  20  30  20
PQL  94  74  93  73 /  30  20  30  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$