AFDMFL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 1036 AM EDT SAT JUL 30 2011 .UPDATE...NO CHANGES WILL BE MADE TO THE FORECAST FOR TODAY AS ALL LOOKS ON TRACK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL WITH A PREVAILING EASTERLY WIND FLOW AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ATLANTIC COAST WITH A FEW TSTORMS POSSIBLE INTERIOR/GULF COAST. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 726 AM EDT SAT JUL 30 2011/ AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND A FEW MAY COME NEAR THE EAST COAST TAF SITES. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN A SHOWER. EASTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 12 KNOTS BY LATE MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON FOR THE EAST COAST TAF SITES. A SEA BREEZE MAY DEVELOP AT KAPF THIS AFTERNOON AND SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO FOCUS TOWARDS THE GULF COAST. SO KEPT VCSH AT KAPF WITH CB. LIGHTER FLOW IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WITH WINDS DECREASING TO AROUND 5 KNOTS. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE WEST OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS SO KEPT VCSH AT THE EAST COAST TAF SITES AFTER 03Z. AK/TINGLER PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 AM EDT SAT JUL 30 2011/ .WILL SLOWLY MOVE W INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE RIDGE AXIS FROM THE HIGH CENTER WILL EXTEND E OVER N FLA. THIS RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE FLA PENINSULA EARLY NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER TROUGH...ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW OVER N NEW ENGLAND/E CANADA...DEEPENS ALONG THE U.S. E COAST. BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK...THE HIGH BEGINS TO MOVE EASTWARD AGAIN WITH THE TROUGH IN TURN MOVING E AS WELL. FOR THE SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...AS THE HIGH RETROGRADES W .HEIGHTS SLOWLY FALL AND SUBSIDENT DRY AIR CURRENTLY OVER S FLA IS GRADUALLY REPLACED BY INCREASING MOISTURE ADVECTING W FROM THE ATLC ON THE PERSISTENT EASTERLY WIND FLOW. SO...A GRADUAL INCREASE IN THE CHANCES OF RAIN WILL OCCUR BUT MAINLY AROUND 20% E COAST NOCTURNALLY AND EARLY MORNING WITH SCATTERED INTERIOR AND W IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S E WITH MID TO UPPER 90S INTERIOR AND W. NEAR RECORD HIGHS POSSIBLE INTERIOR AND W AGAIN TODAY. TONIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S E COAST METRO AREAS WITH MID TO UPPER 70S ELSEWHERE. LOWS TONIGHT ALONG THE E COAST WILL BE NEAR MAXIMUM RECORD LOWS AGAIN FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. EXTENDED FORECAST...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE DEEP EASTERLY WIND FLOW BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN AS WIND CIRCULATION ABOUT THE RETREATING HIGH AND THE DEEPENING TROUGH TO THE E COME INTO PLAY. UPPER FLOW BECOMES WESTERLY TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE AN EASTERLY REGIME REDEVELOPS FRIDAY AS THE HIGH REBUILDS EASTWARD. AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EMPHASIS SHIFTS TOWARD THE E MIDWEEK. MARINE... EASTERLY WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS DECREASING TO 10 KNOTS OR LESS ON SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SEAS 2 TO 4 FEET DECREASING AS WELL. MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS E COAST BEACHES TODAY WITH THE THREAT DECREASING EARLY NEXT WEEK. FIRE WEATHER... RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN ABOVE 35 PERCENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND SO NO HIGH LIGHTS ARE EXPECTED. CLIMATE... HERE ARE THE FORECAST AND WARMEST RECORD LOWS FOR THE EAST COAST SITES FOR TONIGHT. 07/31/11 07/31/11 CITIES FORECAST RECORD MIA 82 83 - 1982 FLL 83 82 - 2009 PBI 82 81 - 1995 MIAMI BEACH 84 84 - 1985 THE WESTERN AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA COULD ALSO GET CLOSE TO THE RECORD HIGHS TODAY 07/31/11 07/31/11 CITIES FORECAST HIGHS RECORD HIGHS F APF 95 96 - 1988 IMMOKALEE 97 98 - 1998 LA BELLE 97 98 - 2000 DEVILS GARDEN 96 96 - 2002 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... WEST PALM BEACH 94 83 92 82 / 20 20 20 20 FORT LAUDERDALE 91 82 91 81 / 20 20 20 20 MIAMI 92 83 92 82 / 20 20 20 20 NAPLES 94 77 94 78 / 30 20 30 20 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. AM...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$