AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
246 AM EDT MON APR 18 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFFSHORE TODAY...THEN EXTEND
OVER THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 230 AM MON...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE MOVING
OFF THE SE COAST. HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUING TO STREAM INTO THE REGION
FROM THE WEST THIS MORNING AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY EMBEDDED IN
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. ONLY REAL CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS TO
INCREASE CLOUD COVER FOR FIRST PART OF TODAY. SFC HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFFSHORE TODAY. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES
AND SW FLOW SUPPORT HIGH TEMPS AROUND 80 DEG INLAND TODAY...WITH
LOW TO UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM MON...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND OVER THE
AREA FROM OFFSHORE TONIGHT...RESULTING IN MILD TEMPS WITH LIGHT SW
FLOW. OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY 55-60 DEG.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 235 AM MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETREAT OFFSHORE ON
TUESDAY WITH INCREASED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ENSUING WHICH SHOULD
DRIVE MAX TEMPS TO AROUND 80 TUESDAY AND AS WARM AS THE MIDDLE 80S
OVER INLAND AREAS BY WEDNESDAY. MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL INDUCE
STRONG CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATE ON
TUESDAY WITH THE LOW MOVING TOWARD SOUTHEAST CANADA WEDNESDAY.
THIS LOW WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND OFFSHORE BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. WITH MODERATE
INSTABILITY IN PLACE OVER THE REGION (LI`S -2 TO -4) AND CAPES OF
500 TO 1000 J/KG IN THE 06Z TO 12Z TIMEFRAME THURSDAY...WILL
INCLUDE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST. QPF AMOUNTS WITH
THIS SYSTEM GENERALLY LOOK LIGHT AT LESS THAN ONE QUARTER INCH.
STILL UNCERTAINTY FOR NEXT WEEKEND`S FORECAST AS WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTH OF THE AREA SATURDAY WITH COLD FRONT APPROACHING FOR SUNDAY.
AT THIS POINT...LEFT LOW (20-30 PCT) POPS IN PLACE FOR SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY WITH GENERALLY PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM MON...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD. HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUING TO STREAM INTO EASTERN NC FROM THE
W THIS MORNING AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. S/SW WINDS WITH
GUSTS TO AROUND 15 KT THIS AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM MONDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXCEPT FOR THE USUAL
LATE NIGHT AREAS OF STRATUS AND FOG THRU THIS WORK WEEK. MAY SEE A
PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CEILINGS WITH SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE ALONG AND
AHEAD OF COLD FRONT WEDS NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM MON...VERY QUIET AND BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE OFFSHORE TODAY AND THEN EXTEND OVER THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT.
S/SW WINDS 5-15KT AND SEAS 2-4FT WILL CONTINUE.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM MONDAY...RELATIVELY QUIET MARINE CONDITIONS FOR
TUESDAY WITH LIGHT SW WINDS/SEAS. WITH GRADIENT INCREASING AHEAD
OF ONCOMING COLD FRONT...SOUTHWEST WINDS PICK UP WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON WITH SEAS BUILDING TO SCA CRITERIA OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS. BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH STRONG 1030 MB HIGH PRESSURE
NOSING IN FROM THE NORTH...SEAS WILL LIKELY REMAIN ROUGH INTO LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$