AFDMHX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 310 AM EDT SAT JUL 9 2011 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY. THE FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE BY TONIGHT AND REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION ON SUNDAY BEFORE PUSHING WELL OFFSHORE ON MONDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE EXITING FRONT SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH MID WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... AS OD 240 AM SATURDAY...RECENT RADAR TRENDS INDICATE SHOWERS MOVING NORTHEAST FROM OFF ONSLOW BAY IMPACTING THE CRYSTAL COAST...PAMLICO SOUND...AND OUTER BANKS...WITH ANOTHER CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED ACROSS THE PIEDMONT PUSHING EAST TOWARDS THE COASTAL PLAIN COUNTIES. SHOWERS AND STORMS FROM THE CENTRAL NC AREA STILL LOOK TO BE SEVERAL HOURS AWAY FROM IMPACTING OUR WESTERN ZONES. HRRR HAD A GOOD HANDLE WITH THE PRECIP ALONG THE COAST AND INLAND...THUS BACKED OFF POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE INLAND UNTIL LATER THIS MORNING. WILL CONTINUE LIKELY POPS TODAY WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AS SURFACE FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN UNSTABLE WITH LIFTED INDICES IN THE -5 TO -7 C RANGE WITH CAPE VALUES 1000-1500 J/KG. PWATS ARE PROGGED TO BE IN THE 2.00-2.20 RANGE WHICH IS NEARLY TWO STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. MAIN THREAT FROM THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...HAIL...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH MAY CAUSE MINOR FLOODING ESPECIALLY IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER CONTINUES TO LIST EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA IN A GENERAL THUNDER RISK. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/... AS OF 250 AM SATURDAY...COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO BE JUST OFF THE CAROLINA COAST EARLY TONIGHT WITH PRECIP COMING TO AN END FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. DECENT SHORTWAVE ENERGY PRESENT IN GFS/NAM/ECMWF SUGGEST ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT BETWEEN 03-09Z. NO REAL CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS THINKING ON TIMING OF FRONTAL MOVEMENT AND POPS PROGRESSION. TEMPS OVERNIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE LOWER 70S EXCEPT FOR MID TO UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 215 AM SAT...FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE S OF REGION BY SUN MORN...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS MOST SPOTS...DID KEEP SMALL POP SRN TIER EARLY SUN DUE TO FRONT JUST TO THE S. ALSO KEPT SMALL POP SRN SECTIONS SUN AFTN AS MAY HAVE JUST ENOUGH RESIDUAL MOISTURE FOR SOME ISOLD ACTVTY ON SEA BRZ PER GFS/ECMWF. DRY WX EXPECTED SUN NIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUE AS HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS. MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO NRN TIER LATER TUE NIGHT AND MOVING THRU WED. GFS IS A LITTLE FASTER WITH FROPA AND BIT STRONGER WITH WINDS ASSOC WITH FRONT. FOR NOW MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO PREV FCST WITH CHC POPS DEVELOPING TUE NIGHT AND CONT SRN HALF ON WED. GFS PUSHES FRONT AND DEEPER MOISTURE TO S WED NIGHT AND THU WHILE ECMWF IS A BIT SLOWER DECREASING MOISTURE WITH CONT THREAT OF SOME PRECIP...AGAIN DID NOT CHANGE PREV FCST OF SLIGHT POP WED NIGHT AND DRY THU. HIGH PRES AND ASSOC DRY AIR WILL GRAD MOVE ACROSS AND OFFSHORE TO THE N FRI WITH DRY WX EXPECTED. HIGHS MOSTLY CPL DGRS EITHER SIDE OF 90 INLAND SUN. AS UPR RDG EXTENDS E INTO REGION MON AND TUE WITH SEE TEMPS RISE A BIT WITH MID 90S LIKELY TUE FOR INLAND SITES. TEMPS WILL COOL A BIT WED ESPCLY N WITH FRONT CROSSING. FOR NOW EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 80S BEHIND FRONT THU AND WITH MOST SPOTS CONT 85 TO 90 ON FRI. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... /SHORT TERM TODAY AND TONIGHT/... AS OF 255 AM SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR/MVFR EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OFFSHORE AND ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. EXPECT SHOWERS TO BEGIN IMPACTING WESTERN TAF SITES OF ISO/PGV BY 12/13Z...THEN EWN/OAJ LATER THIS MORNING. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE AROUND 10 KNOTS TODAY THEN VEER WEST AND NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. IF WINDS DECOUPLE ENOUGH TONIGHT THEN ABUNDANT SURFACE MOISTURE COULD LEAD TO WIDESPREAD FOG FOR ALL TAF SITES. /LONG TERM SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 215 AM SAT...VFR SUNDAY WITH POSS SOME FOG AND REDUCED VSBYS SUN NIGHT WITH LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW. MOSTLY VFR MON AND TUE AS HIGH PRES SLIDES OFFSHORE AND COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW. FRONT AND POSS SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED TUE NIGHT AND EARLY WED WITH BRIEF LOWERING OF CIGS AND VSBYS POSSIBLE. && .MARINE... /SHORT TERM TODAY AND TONIGHT/... AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...LATEST SURFACE AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS INDICATE SOUTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UPWARDS OF 25 KNOTS FOR THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL COASTAL WATERS AND THE PAMLICO SOUND. WINDS AND SEAS FELL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS EARLY THIS MORNING FOR THE ALBEMARLE AND NORTHERN OUTER BANKS...THUS DROPPED THE SCA A FEW HOURS EARLY. SOUTHWEST PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL DIMINISH FROM NORTH TO SOUTH TODAY AS THE COLD FRONT NEARS THE WATERS AND EVENTUALLY BECOMES CENTERED ALONG THE COAST OVERNIGHT. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL VEER WESTERLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...THEN EVENTUALLY NORTHERLY OVERNIGHT. WIND SHIFT WILL OCCUR SOONER FOR NORTHERN WATERS AND SOUNDS. WAVEWATCH III AND SWAN WERE PRETTY CLOSE IN THE SHORT TERM WITH MODELS IN CLOSE AGREEMENT ON THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. /LONG TERM SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 215 AM SAT...WITH FRONT TO THE S EXPECT MAINLY NE WINDS 10 TO 15 KTS SUN WITH SEAS 2 TO 4 FT. AS HIGH BUILDS NEAR REGION SUN NIGHT WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO MAINLY 10 KTS OR LESS WITH SEAS 2 TO 3 FT. THE HIGH WILL GRAD SHIFT OFFSHORE MON WITH WINDS BECOMING SE...SPEEDS CONT MAINLY AROUND 10 KTS WITH SEAS 3 FT OR LESS. AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES TUE WINDS BECOMING SW 10 TO 15 KTS MOST WTRS...POSS A BIT HIGHER NRN TIER. SEAS WILL BUILD SLIGHTLY LATE TUE WITH 3 TO 4 FT EXPECTED OUTER WTRS. COLD FRONT WILL CROSS FROM N TO S LATE TUE NIGHT AND WED. THIS WILL LEAD TO WINDS BECOMING NE...FOR NOW DID NOT GO QUITE AS HIGH AS GFS WITH POST FRONTAL FLOW AND CONTINUE WITH SPEEDS MOSTLY 10 TO 15 KTS AND SEAS 2 TO 4 FT. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR AMZ135. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ152- 154-156-158. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DAG