AFDMLB AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 400 AM EDT FRI JUL 8 2011 .DISCUSSION... TODAY-TONIGHT... HIGH PRES RIDGE OVER THE FL STRAITS WRN ATLC WILL REMAIN S OF THE CENTRAL FL AS AN EARLY WAVE OVER THE ERN GOMEX MERGES WITH A CONTINENTAL TROF PUSHING INTO THE DEEP SOUTH FROM THE MIDWEST. DEEP AND STEADY SRLY FLOW WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE SW AND WILL CONTINUE TO TAP DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THE SE GOMEX/NW CARIB. MODEL SOUNDING KEEP PW VALUES BTWN 2.0"-2.4" THRU DAYBREAK SAT...A SOUPY AIRMASS THAT WILL NEED LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PERTURBATION TO GENERATE PRECIP. LATEST RUC80 ANALYSIS SHOWS VARIOUS POCKETS OF MID LVL VORTICITY ADVECTING INTO THE AREA THAT WILL PROVIDE THE TRIGGER TO FOR NMRS TO WDSPRD SHRAS AND ISOLD TSRAS TO DVLP. PRIMARY WX THREAT WILL BE LCL FLOODING IN LOW LYING AREAS AS WELL AS PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS...ESPECIALLY WHERE HEAVY RAIN HAS FALLEN RECENTLY. PRECIP WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT AS THE MAIN AREA OF TROPICAL MOISTURE LIFTS INTO N FL AND ALLOWS AS POCKET OF SLIGHTLY DRIER LOW LVL AIR TO PUSH INTO S FL...WILL DROP PRECIP CHANCES TO 30-40 PCT AREAWIDE. CLOUDS AND PRECIP WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS IN THE U80S/L90S... WHILE THOSE SAME CLOUDS WILL COMBINE WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE L/M70S TO KEEP OVERNIGHT TEMPS IN THE M/U70S. SAT...AXIS OF LOW LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA AND SHIFT DEEPEST MOISTURE JUST TO OUR NORTH. THE MODELS SHOW A SMALL POCKET OF DRIER AIR ADVECTING NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA...RESULTING IN POPS RANGING FROM 30 PERCENT SOUTH TO 50 PERCENT NORTH. WITH DEEP SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW...NOT SURE THAT POPS WOULD TREND DOWN THAT FAST...SO HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST OF 50 PERCENT EXCEPT 60 PERCENT FOR THE NORTH COAST. SUN-FRI...MID LEVEL ANTICYCLONE WILL BUILD OVER THE MID-LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...SHIFTING FLOW ALOFT TO NORTH/NORTHEAST. NO APPRECIABLE DEEP LAYER DRYING IS DEPICTED...THOUGH EXPECT A RETURN TO A MORE TYPICAL AFTERNOON/EVENING CYCLE OF CONVECTION...WITH POPS TRENDING BACK CLOSER TO CLIMO. WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARIES PUSHING OFFSHORE THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL DROP SOUTH OVER THE ATLANTIC AND KEEP SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WEAK AND SUPPRESSED TO OUR SOUTH. THE RESULTING SOUTHWEST/WEST FLOW SHOULD KEEP TEMPS SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. && .AVIATION... THRU 12Z...INTERIOR AND N OF CAPE CANAVERAL...MVFR CIGS WITH OCNL PDS OF IFR CIGS/MVFR VSBYS IN -RA/BR...S OF CAPE CANAVERAL MNLY VFR WITH CIGS AOA FL100 WITH BRIEF PDS OF MVFR CIGS. BTWN 12Z-16Z...SCT MVFR SHRAS/ISOLD IFR TSRAS. AFT 16Z...NMRS/WDSPRD MVFR SHRAS AND ISOLD TSRAS ALL SITES...CONTG THRU 22Z. && .MARINE... TODAY/TONIGHT... LCL WND SURGE HAS DVLPD OVER THE PAST FEW HRS DUE TO AN ERLY WAVE OVER THE SE GOMEX INTERACTING WITH THE WRN EXTENSION OF THE ATLC RIDGE. THE LCL BUOY NETWORK HAS BEEN MEASURING SRLY WINDS 15-20KTS WITH SEAS 2-3FT NEARSHORE AND 4-5FT OFFSHORE. MODERATE TO FRESH S/SW FLOW WILL CONTINUE THRU DAYBREAK SAT AS THE ERLY WAVE MERGES WITH A CONTINENTAL TROF OVER THE DEEP SOUTH AND KEEPS THE ATLC RIDGE AXIS SUPPRESSED S OF THE CENTRAL PENINSULA. BOATERS WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR OFFSHORE MOVING TSTMS AS THE STEERING FLOW SHIFTS FROM S TO SW. A FEW STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FREQUENT CLOUD TO WATER LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS AND TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS. WEEKEND...SURFACE RIDGE AXIS IS PROGGED TO EXTEND ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTH FLORIDA. SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE SOUTH SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 10 KNOTS BUT NORTHERN SECTIONS SHOULD HAVE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW 10-15 KNOTS. EXPECT A MORE DIURNAL CYCLE TO CONVECTION WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS OVER THE WATERS AT NIGHT AND A CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON STORMS MOVING ACROSS THE COAST...MAINLY FROM THE CAPE NORTHWARD. MON-TUE...RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST BE SUPPRESSED OVER SOUTH FLORIDA...PROVIDING A MAINLY SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW AROUND 10 KNOTS IN THE SOUTH AND 10-15 KNOTS IN THE NORTH. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 89 76 92 76 / 80 40 60 40 MCO 90 75 94 76 / 80 40 50 30 MLB 87 76 91 75 / 70 30 50 30 VRB 87 76 91 75 / 70 30 50 20 LEE 89 75 94 77 / 80 40 50 30 SFB 91 76 94 77 / 80 40 50 30 ORL 90 75 94 78 / 80 40 50 30 FPR 87 76 90 75 / 70 30 50 20 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. AM...NONE. && $$