AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1012 PM CDT SUN JUN 26 2011

.UPDATE...SENT A QUICK UPDATE TO REMOVE RAIN CHANCES OVER LAND AREAS
FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. ALSO ADDED PATCHY SMOKE TO THE GRIDDED
FORECAST ACROSS COASTAL PORTIONS OF BALDWIN AND ESCAMBIA COUNTIES
DUE TO THE HEAVY SMOKE BEING GENERATED BY THE WILDFIRES. SOME
LOCALIZED AREAS OF DENSE SMOKE ARE LIKELY OVERNIGHT IN THE VICINITY
OF THE WILDFIRES AS WINDS GO CALM. JUST SENT A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT TO RAISE AWARENESS OF THIS ISSUE. 34/JFB

&&

.AVIATION...VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 12Z MON. LOW CLOUDS MIXED
WITH SMOKE FROM WILDFIRE IN GULF SHORES ALABAMA AFFECTING MOSTLY
SOUTHERN BALDWIN COUNTY IN ALABAMA POSSIBLY MOVING INTO LOWER MOBILE
COUNTY IN AL OR LOWER ESCAMBIA COUNTY IN NWFL. AS A RESULT LOW
CLOUDS AND SMOKE COULD AFFECT ALL TERMINAL SITES OVERNIGHT DUE TO
VARIABLE WIND FLOW DEVELOPING NEAR THE SFC OVERNIGHT. WILL MONITOR
SITUATION CLOSELY AND MAKE THE NECESSARY AMENDMENTS IF SMOKE IS
REPORTED OR OBSERVED. FOR MON VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 00Z TUES
EXCEPT IN OR NEAR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM GENERALLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE 3 KTS OR LESS LATE THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT BECOMING MOSTLY SOUTH AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH
HIGHER LATE MON MORNING AND MONDAY AFTERNOON. 32/EE

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION (ISSUED AT 350 PM SUN)...

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT]...SURFACE RIDGE
EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO WILL REMAIN INTACT THROUGH TUESDAY...AND THEN BEGIN TO
BREAKDOWN TUESDAY NIGHT AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTH MOVES INTO THE FORECAST AREA. MEANWHILE...UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD VERY SLOWLY
AND OFF THE EAST COAST AS THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
EXPANDS EASTWARD OVER THE DEEP SOUTH. WILL MAINTAIN ISOLATED TO LOW
END SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE INLAND AREAS DURING
THE DAY AND EARLY EVENING HOURS AND ISOLATED COVERAGE DEVELOP OVER
GULF WATERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING HOURS THROUGH TUESDAY.
HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS OVER THE SHORT TERM WILL OCCUR ACROSS OUR
INLAND EASTERN ZONES UNDER THE DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH. THE LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A FAIRLY DEEP LAYER OF
GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...AND THE
COMBINATION OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL
ALLOW LIGHT PATCHY FOG TO FORM INLAND AREAS EACH NIGHT. LOW
TEMPERATURES EACH NIGHT WILL MAINLY FALL INTO THE LOWER 70S INLAND
AREAS...WITH MIDDLE/UPPER 70S ALONG THE COASTAL SECTIONS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM 93 TO
97 DEGREES INLAND AREAS. THE COASTAL SECTIONS WILL SEE HIGHS
REACHING 88 TO 93 DEGREES. /22

.LONG TERM [WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY]...THE UPPER HIGH CENTER
BEGINS TO RETREAT BACK WEST AS AN UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS DOWN THE
EAST COAST BY MID WEEK...WITH RIDGING BUILDING TOWARD THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL SEE CHANCE FOR CONVECTION
LIMITED MAINLY TO THE COASTAL ZONES AND THEN AREAWIDE FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AS AN EASTERLY WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND
ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE SPREAD NORTH ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES REMAIN A BIT ABOVE NORMAL FOR
SUMMER BUT EASE UP A BIT LATE IN THE WEEK AS THE RAIN CHANCES
INCREASE. /11

.MARINE...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHED FROM THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
A WEAK FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL NEAR THE COAST DURING THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK BRINGING AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS
WILL MAINTAIN A GENERALLY LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE SOUTHERLY
FLOW THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF WEEK. /13

.FIRE...SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL MAINTAIN A THE LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND
FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. LOWEST HUMIDITY THE NEXT FEW DAYS CONTINUES
TO BE AROUND 40 PERCENT INTERIOR AND 50 PERCENT COASTAL ZONES WITH A
LIGHT NORTHERLY OR NEAR CALM WIND AT NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING...SOUTHERLY 5 TO 10 IN THE AFTERNOON...A BIT HIGHER NEAR THE
COAST WITH THE SEA BREEZE. SEA BREEZE MOVING INLAND BETWEEN NOON AND
1 PM WITH 10 TO 15 MPH WINDS. /22

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$