AFDMOB AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 446 AM CDT THU MAY 12 2011 .SHORT TERM [TODAY AND TONIGHT]...VERY SIMILAR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING AS THOSE OF THE PAST SEVERAL MORNINGS. PATCHY FOG... ESPECIALLY EAST OF MOBILE BAY AND INTO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND OVER INTERIOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST ALABAMA EAST OF I-65...AGAIN TODAY. AGAIN...A FEW LOCATIONS REPORTING DENSE FOG WITH VSBYS DOWN IN THE 1/4-1/2 MILE RANGE IN SOME ISOLATED LOCATIONS...BUT DOES NOT APPEAR WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR ANY PORTION OF THE FCST AREA. SIMILAR TO THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...FOG SHOULD BURN OFF BY AROUND 9 AM. ONE MORE NICE DAY...ALTHOUGH QUITE WARM. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH ABOVE NORMAL MAX TEMPS RISING INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S MOST LOCATIONS...EXCEPT FOR LOW/MID 80S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. GRADUAL PATTERN CHANGE BEGINS TO HAVE AFFECTS ON THE FCST AREA TONIGHT AS THE PERSISTENT DEEP LAYER HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN AND A FRONT APPROACHES THE SOUTHEAST FROM THE WEST. WILL SEE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MID/HIGH CLOUDS TONIGHT...WHICH SHOULD HELP TO KEEP FOG AT A MINIMUM. AS THE FRONT APPROACHES...ENOUGH LIFT SHOULD BE SUPPLIED TO A MOIST AIRMASS OVER THE REGION TO SUPPORT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA AFTER MIDNIGHT. MIN TEMPS TONIGHT ALSO REMAINING ABOVE NORMAL...WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S OVER INTERIOR ZONES AND MID/UPPER 60S CLOSER TO THE COAST AND EVEN A FEW LOWER 70S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. 12/DS .LONG TERM [FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY]...AXIS OF UPPER LVL RIDGE ADVANCES EWD OFF THE SE US COAST ON FRI AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROF PIVOTS ACRS THE MS RIVER VALLEY. THE UPPER LVL MASS FIELDS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY DIVERGENT. COUPLE THIS WITH AN EWD MOVG FRONT OUT OF LA DURING THE DAY FRI ALG W/RAIN COOLED OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM OLD TSTM COMPLEXES WILL FOCUS LIFT WITHIN A WARM...MOIST AND UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR ADDITIONAL TSTM INITIATION THROUGH THE DAY. ALTHOUGH THERE IS A LACK OF A WELL DEFINED...LOW LEVEL WIND MAXIMA NECESSARY FOR SVR STORMS...THE THERMAL PROFILES IN THE LOWER LVLS DOES SUPPORT AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IN ANY LATE DAY STORMS AS WELL AS ISOLATED INSTANCES OF LARGE HAIL GREATER THAN 1" IN DIAMETER OVR THE SRN STATES. AT THIS TIME...A SLIGHT RISK OF SVR STORMS EXISTS FM LA NWD THRU THE MID S ON FRI AND THE EASTERN EDGES OF THE RISK AREA IS VERY CLOSE TO THE INTERIOR SE MS AND FAR INTERIOR SW AL ZONES. ELSEWHERE...STORMS ARE FCST TO REMAIN BLO SEVERE LIMITS FRI...BUT CAN STILL PRODUCE BRIEF STRONG WIND GUSTS FROM 35 TO 45 MPH AND SMALL HAIL. FRONTAL PASSAGE IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE HEART OF THE FA BETWEEN 12-15 UTC (7-10AM LOCAL) SAT. THE FRONT SCOURS OUT THE DEEP LYR MOISTURE AND WILL SEE A DECLINE IN CHC`S OF RAIN LATE SAT AND CONT INTO SUN. NEXT UPPER LVL STORM SYSTEM PIVOTS INTO THE SE ON MON AND UP ACRS THE MID ATLC BY MID WEEK. THE XTNDD RNG GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED LOWER ON PROBABILITIES OF PCPN ON MON AS THE DEEPER LYR MOISTURE IS LOWER THAN WHAT WAS SEEN 24H AGO. WE WILL MAINTAIN...THOUGH...A MENTION OF A SMALL CHC OF SHWRS/TSMS ON MON OVER THE INTERIOR N AND NE ZONES AS THESE AREAS COULD SEE SOME A BIT OF MEASURABLE PCPN BEING SQUEEZED OUT FROM AXIS OF LOWER HGHTS/MID LVL FORCING MOVG INTO THE SE. A DEEP LYR...DRY NRLY FLOW EXPECTED TUE-WED WITH TEMPS TRENDING MUCH BLO SEASONAL NORMALS. COOLEST AM TUE...WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER/MID 50S OVER THE INTERIOR. ALMOST UNHEARD OF IN MID MAY. DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S. WILL BE ENJOYING THE COOLER MORNINGS NEXT WEEK AS THE SUMMER HEAT/HUMIDITY WILL NOT BE TOO FAR OFF THE HORIZON. /10 && .AVIATION (12/12Z ISSUANCE)...MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS AT MANY LOCATIONS THIS ONCE AGAIN THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY COASTAL COUNTIES. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...A FEW LOCATIONS WITH LIFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS...PRIMARILY OVER THE COASTAL COUNTIES AND PARTS OF INTERIOR SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL BURN OFF BY AROUND 12/15Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. VFR WILL CONTINUE UNTIL AFTER 13/06Z...BUT ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA MAY DEVELOP OVER FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF FCST AREA BY 13/12Z...BUT REMAINING WEST OF TAF SITES. LIGHT TO OCNLY MODERATE SLY FLOW TODAY AND EARLY THIS EVENING BECOMING MORE SWLY TO EVEN WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. 12/DS && .MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN GULF THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...THEN BREAK DOWN FRIDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE MARINE AREA FROM THE WEST. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS ON SATURDAY AND THEN EAST OF THE MARINE AREA BY SATURDAY NIGHT. LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 15 TO 20 KNOTS BY SATURDAY...THEN SHIFT TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST...APPROACHING 20 TO 25 KNOTS AT TIMES BY SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. MODERATE TO OCNLY STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT WILL END WITH THE WIND SHIFT LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. SEAS 2 FEET OR LESS THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN STEADILY BUILDING SATURDAY AND ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY AS THE STRONGER OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS. 12/DS && .FIRE WEATHER...SFC HIGH PRES PERSISTS OVR THE ERN GULF TO END THE WEEK. DAYTIME HUMIDITY CONTINUES TO MODIFY IN THE NEAR TERM WITH PERSISTENT FLOW OFF THE GULF. /10 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MOBILE 88 68 85 67 / 05 10 40 40 PENSACOLA 87 71 83 71 / 05 05 20 40 DESTIN 84 71 82 72 / 05 05 10 30 EVERGREEN 90 64 88 66 / 00 10 30 40 WAYNESBORO 89 64 85 63 / 05 20 50 50 CAMDEN 90 64 86 66 / 05 20 40 50 CRESTVIEW 91 60 90 67 / 05 05 20 40 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...NONE. FL...NONE. MS...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$