AFDMOB AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 130 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2011 .AVIATION (18Z ISSUANCE)...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 09Z WED FOLLOWED BY MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS FROM 09Z THROUGH 13Z THEN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 18Z WED. CEILINGS LOWERING TO AROUND 1K FT FROM 09Z THROUGH 13Z WED. WINDS WILL BE SOUTH AT 8 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS THROUGH 23Z TODAY BECOMING SOUTHWEST AT 3 TO 5 KNOTS OVERNIGHT INCREASING TO AROUND 6 KTS FROM 13Z THROUGH 18Z WED. 32/EE && .SHORT TERM [TODAY AND TONIGHT]...FOG NOT QUITE AS WIDESPREAD THIS MORNING AS YESTERDAY MORNING...AND EVEN FEWER LOCATIONS REPORTING DENSE FOG. THOSE LOCATIONS THAT ARE OCCASIONALLY REPORTING VSBYS DOWN IN THE 1/4-1/2 MILE RANGE ARE MOSTLY OVER PARTS OF THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE. DOES NOT APPEAR THAT DENSE FOG IS WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR ANY PORTION OF THE FCST AREA. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG SHOULD BURN OFF BY AROUND 9 AM IN ANY LOCATIONS WHERE IT DEVELOPS THIS MORNING. WITH PATTERN RELATIVELY UNCHANGED...LOOK FOR SIMILAR CONDITIONS AGAIN TONIGHT. OTHERWISE... RIDGING BOTH SFC AND ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER TODAY AND TONIGHT. AFTER THE EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS/FOG BURNS OFF...LOOK FOR MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND HOT TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN. SUBSIDENCE AND COMPRESSIONAL HEATING RESULTING FROM THE DEEP LAYER HIGH PRESSURE WILL AGAIN ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO RISE TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL TODAY (APPROACHING RECORD HIGHS AT SOME LOCATIONS)... GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S ACROSS THE FCST AREA. LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL ALSO BE ABOVE NORMAL...RANGING FROM THE LOW/MID 60S OVER THE INTERIOR TO THE LOWER 70S ALONG THE COAST. 12/DS .LONG TERM [THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY]...AXIS OF THE HIGH LVL RIDGE SHIFTS EWD...INTO THE SE ON THU. STILL ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY WARM DAY THOUGH WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 90S OVER THE INTERIOR AND MID/UPPER 80S ALG THE COAST. MID LVL HEIGHT FALLS EXPAND SE INTO THE SRN STATES THU NIGHT AND FRI IN RESPONSE TO UPPER LVL LOW PRES SYSTEM ADVANCING OUT OF THE PLAINS INTO THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY. ENHANCED LIFT FM HIGH LVL DIFFLUENT FLOW OPERATING ON MODIFIED GULF MOISTURE SUGGESTS AN INCREASED CHC OF SHOWERS AND STORMS DURING THE DAY FRI AS LOCAL ENVIRONMENT BECOMES UNSTABLE. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SVR STORMS JUST TO THE NW OF FORECAST AREA ON FRI POSITIONED...FM THE MID SOUTH DOWN ACRS LA. CANNOT TOTALLY RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL OF A FEW SVR STORMS OVER INTERIOR SE MS/FAR INTERIOR SW AL FRI AFTN WITH THE REPRESENTATION OF MOISTURE/LIFT/INSTABILITY MOVING IN FM THE NW. CONSIDERING SE ADVECTION OF COLDER H50 TEMPS -12/-14C...THE ENVIRONMENT WOULD SUPPORT LRG HAIL IN ANY SVR STORMS AS WELL AS ISO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS LATE FRI. UPPER LOW DROPPING INTO THE SE SAT LIFTS NE UP ACRS THE APPALACHIANS ALLOWING FOR A SHORT WAVE UPPER RIDGE TO MOVE OVHD ON SUN. THIS FEATURE WOULD ACT TO LIMIT RAIN CHC`S AND HAVE DIMINISHED THESE TO LESS THAN 10% ON SUN. HOWEVER...ANOTHER UPPER LOW DROPPING SE INTO MS/AL ON MON BRINGS ANOTHER RAIN CHC AS WE START THE NEW WEEK. MON`S UPPER LOW PIVOTS E TO OFF THE SE US COAST BY TUE. MID LVL HEIGHT RISES IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW SHUTS OFF RAIN CHC`S FOR TUE. DUE A COMBINATION OF INCRD CLOUD COVER...PCPN CHC`S...WEEKEND FRONTAL PASSAGE BRINGING MORE OF A NW FLOW LATER IN THE PD FAVORS DAILY HIGHS/LOWS TRENDING BLO SEASONAL SUN-TUE. /10 && .AVIATION (11/12Z ISSUANCE)...MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS AT MANY LOCATIONS THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY COASTAL COUNTIES. EVEN A FEW LOCATIONS WITH LIFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS...BUT THOSE ARE RATHER ISOLATED IN NATURE SO FAR THIS MORNING. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL BURN OFF BY AROUND 11/15Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TOO PREVAIL FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. VFR WILL CONTINUE AFTER 12/00Z...BUT LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL AGAIN BEGIN TO DEVELOP BY LATE EVENING (AROUND 12/06Z). LIGHT S TO SWLY FLOW (5 TO 10 KNOTS) THROUGH THE PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR A MODERATE 10 TO 15 KNOTS NEAR THE COAST (AT TAF LOCATIONS) THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO ENHANCED FLOW OFF GULF OF MEXICO. 12/DS && .MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN GULF THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN BREAK DOWN OVER THE WEEKEND AS DEEP LAYER LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH LATE FRIDAY... BECOMING MORE WESTERLY OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE LOW PRESSURE DROPS SOUTH INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE MARINE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...BRINGING AN INCREASE IN WINDS AND A SHIFT MORE TO THE WEST AND THEN NORTHWEST BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND. SEAS GENERALLY 2 FEET OR LESS THROUGH LATE FRIDAY...THEN BUILDING SLIGHTLY BY SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW INCREASES. 12/DS && .FIRE WEATHER...SFC HIGH PRES PERSISTS OVR THE ERN GULF THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. STILL DRY...BUT LATEST FCST GRIDDED LOWEST DAYTIME HUMIDITIES DO NOT MEET CRITERIA FOR FIRE WEATHER WATCHES/WARNINGS IN THE NEAR TERM. /10 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MOBILE 90 67 90 67 / 00 05 05 20 PENSACOLA 87 70 88 70 / 00 05 05 10 DESTIN 84 71 85 73 / 00 05 05 05 EVERGREEN 92 63 93 64 / 00 05 05 10 WAYNESBORO 90 63 90 64 / 05 05 10 30 CAMDEN 92 64 92 64 / 00 10 05 20 CRESTVIEW 92 63 93 63 / 00 05 05 10 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...NONE. FL...NONE. MS...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$