AFDMOB AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 421 AM CDT MON APR 18 2011 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)FOR TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH ONSHORE FLOW RE-ESTABLISHED...MOISTURE LEVELS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE. NAM A BIT MORE ENTHUSIASTIC IN BRINGING A MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK OVER NORTHERN PARTS OF THE LAND FA...THUS A BIT LOWER WITH THE TEMPS. HAVE WENT BETWEEN THE NAM AND GFS SOLUTIONS AS FEEL THE ANSWER LIES IN THE MIDDLE..MORE IN LINE WITH THE 00Z ENSEMBLES. /16 TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY WILL BEGIN TO DRAW DEEPER MOISTURE NORTHWARD TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. ABSENCE OF A DECENT LIFTING MECHANISM AND WITH THE AREA STILL SOMEWHAT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A RIDGE EXTENDING WEST FROM THE ATLANTIC...WOULD NOT EXPECT ANY SHOWERS DURING THE DAY...DOES LOOK LIKE IT WILL BE A BREEZY DAY AND MAY APPROACH WIND ADVISORY GUIDELINES. THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL PRODUCE OUTFLOW THAT MIGHT MAY IT TO THE NORTHWEST ZONES BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY MORNING. IF SO WOULD EXPECT SOME DEVELOPMENT SOUTHWARD DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL WEDNESDAY AS H5 LOW PULLS TO THE NORTHEAST STATES AND STRENGTHENS. POPS WILL RANGE FROM 10 PERCENT OVER THE SOUTHERN ZONES TO 30 O4 40 PERCENT OVER THE FAR NORTH. HIGHS MOSTLY MID 80S. /11 .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)THE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MAKE IT CLOSEST APPROACH ON THURSDAY...POSSIBLY JUST TAPPING THE NORTHERN ZONES BEFORE RETREATING BACK NORTH THURSDAY EVENING. WILL HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTH ON THURSDAY. THE WESTERN ATLANTIC SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS BACK WEST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND KEEPS POPS TO A MINIMUM. WILL PUT A LOW POP IN FOR SUNDAY AS DEEPER MOISTURE RETURNS IN ADVANCE OF WEAK UPPER TROUGHING TO THE WEST. HIGH TEMPERATURES REMAIN MID TO UPPER 80S AND SOMEWHAT HUMID WITH THE FLOW COMING OFF THE GULF. /11 && .AVIATION...(12Z ISSUANCE)VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD....UNDER SOME MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. ONSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE MOISTURE LEVELS...WITH PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT. /16 && .MARINE...LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL BECOME MODERATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A SYSTEM DEVELOPS OVER THE PLAINS AND MOVES EAST. THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL SETTLE LATER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT REMAIN ONSHORE...AND REMAIN ONSHORE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AND THE WEEKEND. WITH THE STEADY ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD...AM EXPECTING SEAS TO RISE HIGHER THROUGH THE WEEK THAN WOULD BE EXPECTED FOR THE SPEED DUE TO EXTENDED DURATION AND LONG FETCH...OFF THE OPEN GULF. /16 && .FIRE WEATHER...SURFACE HUMIDITY WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TODAY WITH THE HIGHER AFTERNOON READINGS OVER SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...STILL SOME VALUES UNDER 40 PERCENT OVER THE FAR EAST ZONES OF SOUTH ALABAMA. A FEW PATCHES OF FOG AROUND THIS MORNING AND EXPECT MORE FOG TONIGHT AND AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT. SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. WILL BE CLOSE TO RED FLAG CONDITIONS EXCEPT FOR HUMIDITY EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE 35 PERCENT AND FOR FLORIDA THE ERC REMAINS IN THE LOW 30S. /11 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MOBILE 82 67 83 70 / 05 10 10 10 PENSACOLA 76 67 81 72 / 05 10 10 05 DESTIN 74 67 78 71 / 05 10 05 05 EVERGREEN 82 61 87 68 / 05 10 10 05 WAYNESBORO 82 65 87 69 / 05 05 10 10 CAMDEN 82 62 86 68 / 00 05 10 10 CRESTVIEW 82 57 88 65 / 05 10 10 05 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...NONE. FL...NONE. MS...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$