AFDMOB AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 528 AM CDT FRI JUL 8 2011 .SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL GULF COMBINED WITH A WEAK TROF OVER LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GULF WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW DEEPER MOISTURE TO ADVECT INLAND ALONG THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST... INCLUDING MOST COASTAL AND EASTERN AREAS OF THE CWFA. DUE TO WEAK FORCING IN THE MID LEVELS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SPARKED MOSTLY FROM DAYTIME HEATING AND INSTABILITY IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. HAVE TRIMMED POPS DOWN A TAD FOR TODAY DUE TO THE LIMITED FORCING IN THE MID LEVELS AND WEAK LAPSE RATES IN THE LOWER TO MID LEVELS FOR MOST AREAS. BETTER MOISTURE IS NOTED OVER EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWFA FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT SUGGESTING THE BEST COVERAGE FOR PRECIP WILL BE GENERALLY EAST OF THE I 65 CORRIDOR AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE SW AL AND NWFL COAST. GUSTY STRAIGHT LINE WINDS FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND PERIODS OF VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH SOME OF THE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. AS FOR TEMPS WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE WARMER MAV GUIDANCE THROUGH TONIGHT. 32/EE THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK IS MODERATE. .LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHERN GULF IS FORECAST TO BEGIN QUICKLY RETROGRADING WEST... APPROACHING THE TEXAS COAST BY SATURDAY EVENING AND INTO WESTERN TEXAS BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND. MEANWHILE...MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING THAT HAS BEEN CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL BUILD EAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BECOMING CENTERED OVER THE MID SOUTH. INCREASINGLY HOT TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW THE RIDGE EASTWARD...RESULTING IN HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S INLAND OVER THE WEEKEND WITH UPPER 90S PREVALENT BY EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK. THE GFS IS EVEN SUGGESTING HIGHS ABOVE THE CENTURY MARK BY EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH 1000-850 MB SOARING ABOVE 1450 METERS. THE ECMWF IS ABOUT 20 METERS LOWER THAN THE GFS...DUE TO SLIGHTLY LOWER 850 MB TEMPS AND SFC TEMPS BEING TEMPERED SLIGHTLY BY A GREATER COVERAGE OF CONVECTION. FOR NOW...WILL CAP HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S INLAND. AS USUAL...TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES LOWER CLOSER TO THE COAST. WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR HEAT INDICES AS WE HEAD INTO THE NEW WEEK AS GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING DEWPOINTS STAYING IN THE LOW TO MID 70S DURING THE DAY. WENT A FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN GUIDANCE ON DEWPOINTS TO ACCOUNT FOR GOOD AFTERNOON MIXING. EVEN WITH THESE SLIGHTLY LOWER DEWPOINTS... HEAT INDICES ARE FORECAST TO CLIMB INTO THE 105-110 DEGREE RANGE... BEGINNING ON SUNDAY...BUT MAXIMIZING MON-WED. HEAT ADVISORIES MAY BECOME NECESSARY. THERE WILL ALSO BE LITTLE RELIEF AT NIGHT WITH LOWS ONLY DROPPING IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...STAYING IN THE LOW 80S AT THE BEACHES. WHILE THERE WILL BE SOME INCREASED SUBSIDENCE WITH THE BUILDING RIDGE...THE AIRMASS WILL BE VERY MOIST WITH PRECIPITABLE WATERS AT OR ABOVE 2 INCHES THROUGH THE PERIOD. IN ADDITION...WITH THE INCREASE IN HIGH TEMPERATURES...THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION WILL BECOME MORE VIGOROUS. THEREFORE...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. WILL MAINTAIN AFTERNOON POPS OF 30-50 PERCENT. 34/JFB && .AVIATION (12Z ISSUANCE)...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 12Z SAT EXCEPT MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS NEAR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MOSTLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. WINDS WILL BE WEST TO SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS LATER TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT DECREASING TO LESS THAN 5 KNOTS OVERNIGHT. 32/EE && .MARINE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL GULF COMBINED WITH A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN GULF WILL HELP MAINTAIN A LIGHT TO MODERATE WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE MARINE AREA THROUGH EARLY NEXT. SEAS...MOSTLY WELL OFFSHORE...WILL CONTINUE TO RUN SLIGHTLY HIGHER...2 TO 3 FEET... DUE TO A SLIGHT INCREASE IN SWELLS GENERATED FROM THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GULF. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE HIGHER NEAR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. 32/EE && .FIRE WEATHER...HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL STAY WELL ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS MAINTAIN HIGH DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE REGION. SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. HOT DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL YIELD DEEP MIXING HEIGHTS...BUT TRANSPORT WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...RESULTING IN FAIR AFTERNOON DISPERSIONS. 34/JFB && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MOBILE 96 75 96 76 / 20 20 40 20 PENSACOLA 92 78 94 78 / 30 30 40 20 DESTIN 90 78 92 79 / 30 30 50 30 EVERGREEN 96 73 96 73 / 30 30 50 20 WAYNESBORO 96 73 97 73 / 20 30 30 20 CAMDEN 96 73 96 73 / 30 30 40 20 CRESTVIEW 96 74 95 73 / 30 30 50 20 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...NONE. FL...NONE. MS...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$