AFDMOB AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 356 PM CDT MON JUN 27 2011 .SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT]...A LARGE UPPER HIGH CENTERED OVER TEXAS WILL BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH MIDWEEK IN THE WAKE OF A FAST MOVING UPPER LOW MOVING EASTWARD OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A SERIES OF UPPER SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH OVER THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...WITH THE STRONGEST SHORTWAVE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE...A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL REMAIN INTACT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...AND THEN BEGIN TO BREAKDOWN WEDNESDAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH MOVES INTO THE FORECAST AREA. ISOLATED TO LOW END SCATTERED (20-30 PERCENT) SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY MAINLY SCATTERED (30 TO 50 PERCENT) COVERAGE MID WEEK. LOW TEMPERATURES EACH NIGHT WILL MAINLY FALL INTO THE LOWER 70S INLAND AREAS...WITH MIDDLE/UPPER 70S ALONG THE COASTAL SECTIONS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM 93 TO 97 DEGREES INLAND AREAS...WITH COASTAL SECTIONS REACHING 88 TO 93 DEGREES. WENT A COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVERAGE AND EARLY ONSET OF PRECIPITATION...BUT HIGHS WILL STILL MANAGE TO REACH 91 TO 95 DEGREES INLAND AREAS...WITH COASTAL SECTIONS REACHING 87 TO 92 DEGREES. /22 && .LONG TERM [THURSDAY THROUGH INDEPENDENCE DAY WEEKEND]...A LARGE UPPER HIGH CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL EXPAND FURTHER OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN CONUS BY LATE IN THE WEEK. THE SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WILL WEAKEN AND LIFT NORTHWARD BY LATE IN THE WEEK AS A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE REFORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH OVER THE WEEKEND. WILL MAINTAIN ISOLATED TO LOW END SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE DURING THE COURSE OF THE LONG TERM...MAINLY INLAND AREAS DURING THE DAY AND EARLY EVENING HOURS AND ISOLATED COVERAGE DEVELOP OVER GULF WATERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING HOURS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOUT 3 TO 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...REACHING THE LOW TO MID 90S. /22 && .MARINE...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. A WEAK FRONT WILL STALL NORTH OF THE COAST DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A GENERALLY LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE FORECAST. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR SHORE EACH MORNING BECOMING ISOLATED IN THE AFTERNOON. /13 && .AVIATION [27/18Z ISSUANCE]...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. /13 && .FIRE...SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL MAINTAIN A THE LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A DAILY GULF BREEZE WILL ORGANIZE AND MOVE INLAND OVER THE COASTAL SECTIONS BEGINNING AROUND NOONTIME ON TUESDAY. THE SOUTHERN THIRD TO HALF OF THE FA WILL SEE A GENERALLY SOUTHERN TRANSPORT WIND IN THE MIXING LAYER THROUGH THE WEEK. A WEAK BOUNDARY SAGGING OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY WILL BRING A SHIFT IN THE MIXING LAYER WINDS FROM SOUTHERLY TO NORTHERLY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...BUT SOUTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO RETURN BY FRIDAY. /22 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MOBILE 74 94 74 92 / 20 30 30 50 PENSACOLA 76 93 77 92 / 20 30 40 50 DESTIN 78 91 77 89 / 20 30 40 50 EVERGREEN 70 95 72 94 / 20 40 40 40 WAYNESBORO 73 97 73 95 / 10 30 50 40 CAMDEN 72 95 72 95 / 10 40 50 40 CRESTVIEW 73 94 74 94 / 20 40 40 50 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...NONE. FL...NONE. MS...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$