AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 719 AM EDT TUE AUG 30 2011 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THROUGH FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... 11Z FORECAST UPDATE ON TRACK WITH NO CHANGES MADE. OTHERWISE...500 HPA TROUGH CURRENTLY STRETCHING FROM FAR EASTERN NY INTO N CENTRAL NC CROSSES THE REGION THIS MORNING. IR SATELLITE ONLY SHOWS A FEW CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS...AND WITH LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ONLY WOULD EXPECT A FEW CUMULUS ALONG SEA/SOUND BREEZE FRONTS THIS AFTERNOON...SO GOING SUNNY FOR TODAY. FOR HIGHS BLENDED FAIRLY SIMILAR MAV/MET GUIDANCE...ADDING IN A MIX DOWN FROM 850 HPA OVER INTERIOR AREAS AS WELL - PER MODEL SOUNDINGS. EXPECT HIGHS TO BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AS A RESULT. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/... DEEP LAYER RIDGE BUILDS IN TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE AND DRY LOW TO MID LEVELS SHOULD LIMIT CLOUD COVER...THOUGH WITH HINTS OF PASSING WEAK LOW-MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE...COULD END UP MOSTLY SUNNY VICE FORECAST OF SUNNY. WILL WAIT TO SEE IF FORECAST SHORTWAVE MATERIALIZES BEFORE UPPING SKY COVER ON WEDNESDAY. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKY CONDITIONS...WILL HAVE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT...SO UNDERCUT GUIDANCE A TAD IN USUALLY COOLER SPOTS...OTHERWISE FOLLOWED MAV/MET BLEND. EXPECT VALUES TO BE NEAR NORMAL IN THE NYC METRO AND AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ELSEWHERE (A TAD LARGER DEPARTURE IN NORMALLY COOLER SPOTS). AS SOILS CONTINUE TO DRY...WILL SEE LESS SOLAR HEATING GOING TOWARDS EVAPORATION VICE WARMING THE GROUND...AND HENCE THE AIR ABOVE IT...SO EVEN THOUGH 850 TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY/S...EXPECT WEDNESDAY TO BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER DUE TO THIS. THIS THINKING IS CONSISTENT WITH A MAV/MET BLEND...WITH A MIX DOWN FROM 825 HPA ACROSS THE INTERIOR PER MODEL SOUNDINGS. SEA/SOUND BREEZE FRONTS WILL SERVE AS A LIMITING FACTOR FOR HIGHS NEAR THE COAST. EXPECT VALUES 3-5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AS A RESULT. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. THEN...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS HIGH WILL PROVIDE MAINLY FAIR AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE ONLY EXCEPTIONS COULD BE A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA. ON SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EASTWARD...ALLOWING FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER TO RETURN TO THE TRI-STATE AREA WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WARM FRONT...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY. SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. ALSO...THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT IN RESPONSE TO A AMPLIFYING UPPER TROF DROPPING SE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION /11Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... HIGH PRES OVER THE REGION THRU THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. VFR THRU THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT N/VRB FLOW THIS MORNING. SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT IN THE 16-18Z TIME PERIOD IMMEDIATE S SHORES...THEN A SLOW NWD PROGRESSION THRU THE AFTN. WEAK GRADIENT MAY LIMIT NWWD EXPANSION...SO KEWR/KTEB STILL FCST TO REMAIN NON-SEA BREEZE FLOW. LIGHT AND VRB WINDS TONIGHT. NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT... DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE) KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD. KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED OUTLOOK FOR 06Z WED THROUGH SAT...VFR. && .MARINE... 44065 HAS REMAINED BELOW 4 FT OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...AND 44097 HAS VARIED AROUND 5 FT OVER THE SAME TIME FRAME. THIS CONSISTENCY YIELDS ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO CANCEL THE SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS IN ANZ-350 WITH THIS ISSUANCE. WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE WATERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WINDS WILL BE 10 KT OR LESS. WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE CURRENTLY RUNNING 1 TO 2 FT TOO HIGH...SO HAVE ADJUSTED DOWNWARD ACCORDINGLY THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT DID NOT ADJUST ON WEDNESDAY...AS IT SYNCHS UP WELL WITH ADJUSTED FORECAST TONIGHT. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS. THE NEXT CHANCE OF SCA CONDITIONS MAY BE ON SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. && .HYDROLOGY... AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS CONTINUE TO RECEDE...WITH ONLY THE RAMAPO RIVER AT MAHWAH AND THE HACKENSACK RIVER AT RIVERDALE REMAINING ABOVE FLOOD STAGE IN THE HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST RIVER AND AREAL FLOOD WARNINGS FOR DETAILS. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY MORNING...AND QUITE POSSIBLY THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... WITH CONTINUED FALLING ASTRONOMICAL TIDE LEVELS...EXPECT VALUES TO REMAIN BELOW FLOOD STAGE (THOUGH BY ONLY AROUND .5 FT ON THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS OF LONG ISLAND/NYC) AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE TODAY AND TONIGHT. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BC/MALOIT