AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 842 PM EDT THU JUL 7 2011 .SYNOPSIS... A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND TONIGHT AND REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY. WEAK AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE ALONG THE FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN FOR THE WEEKEND...SLIDING OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST MONDAY...THEN CROSSES THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... 2330Z UPDATE...MINOR TWEEKS TO HOURLY TEMPS AND DEW POINTS TO REFLECT LATEST CONDITIONS. HAVE LOWERED POPS A BIT ACROSS THE CWA...BUT CHANCE AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST WITH CONVECTION POSSIBLE ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE CWA. THE COLD FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE REGION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY OVERNIGHT. POPS GRADUALLY EXPAND ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH CONVECTION POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT. MAV/MET GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OVERNIGHT. MOIST AIR AND CLOUD COVER WILL PREVENT SIGNIFICANT COOLING. LOWS RANGE FROM THE LOW 60S OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS TO THE LOW 70S SOUTH. THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS AT OCEAN-FACING BEACHES THIS EVENING. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... FRONT REMAINS STALLED TO THE SOUTH FRIDAY...WITH WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST OF THE REGION AND RIDING ALONG THE FRONT. WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC SCENARIO...A PRIMARILY PERSISTENCE FORECAST CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH CHANCE POPS OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY. MODEL CONSENSUS DEVELOPS A CLOSED LOW NEAR THE DELMARVA LATE IN THE DAY...WITH THE GFS BEING MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN THE ECMWF AND THE NAM IN CLOSING OFF THE LOW AND MOVING IT TOWARDS THE COAST. POPS INCREASE TO LIKELY OVER SOUTHWESTERN LATE IN THE DAY AS THE LOW BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE TO OUR SOUTHWEST. ONGOING CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT OVERALL INSTABILITY...BUT AROUND 500 J/KG OF CAPE AND POTENTIAL GREATER INSTABILITY ALOFT WILL BE ENOUGH TO KEEP TSTMS IN THE FORECAST. COOLER HIGH TEMPS LIKELY FRIDAY WITH ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER...ONSHORE FLOW AND SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO THE REGION. IN THE AFTERNOON...HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S. THE LOW PASSES SOUTH OF THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN QUICKLY MOVES INTO THE NEW ENGLAND COASTAL WATERS BY SATURDAY MORNING. POPS GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. LOWS IN THE 60S EXPECTED. THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS AT OCEAN-FACING BEACHES ON FRIDAY. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... A COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRAVELING ALONG THIS FRONT DEPARTS. HIGH PRESSURE NORTHWEST OF THE CWA BUILDS INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY MORNING. THEREFORE...WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD. A FRONTAL SYSTEM THEN APPROACHES EARLY IN THE NEW WEEK...POSSIBLY BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION MON AFTERNOON/NIGHT THROUGH TUE...THEN DRY WX RETURNS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL REMAIN AT OR ABOVE NORMAL. && .AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AIRMASS HAS RECOVERED FROM SCATTERED CONVECTION EARLIER THIS EVENING WITH GENERALLY AN S/SE FLOW AT 5 TO 10 KT NEAR THE COAST...AND E/NE 5 TO 10 KT ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY TERMINALS. GENERALLY VFR OVERNIGHT...WITH MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FROM DISSIPATED CONVECTION. ISOLATED CONVECTION THOUGH IS STILL POSSIBLE THIS EVENING WITH BRIEF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WINDS. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY SETTLE JUST TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. POTENTIAL FOR MVFR OR LOWER AFTER 06Z AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLS OVER THE AREA. STRATUS AND FOG POSSIBLE. UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM APPROACHES AND BRINGS INCREASED CHANCES FOR TSTMS TOWARD MORNING. WILL INCLUDE SHOWERS IN TERMINAL FORECAST BY FRIDAY MORNING AS COVERAGE EXPECTED TO BE HIGHER AT THAT TIME. WINDS BECOME E/NE TONIGHT...AND VERY LIGHT. EAST TO SOUTHEAST FRIDAY MORNING...REMAINING LIGHT. NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT... DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE) KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS LIKELY ON FRI DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING AND INTENSITY OF CONVECTION AND VARIABILITY OF WINDS WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN CLOSE PROXIMITY. SUB-VFR STRATUS POSSIBLE IN MORNING. KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS LIKELY ON FRI DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING AND INTENSITY OF CONVECTION AND VARIABILITY OF WINDS WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN CLOSE PROXIMITY. SUB-VFR STRATUS POSSIBLE IN MORNING. KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS LIKELY ON FRI DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING AND INTENSITY OF CONVECTION AND VARIABILITY OF WINDS WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN CLOSE PROXIMITY. SUB-VFR STRATUS POSSIBLE IN MORNING. KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS LIKELY ON FRI DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING AND INTENSITY OF CONVECTION AND VARIABILITY OF WINDS WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN CLOSE PROXIMITY. SUB-VFR STRATUS POSSIBLE IN MORNING. KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS LIKELY ON FRI DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING AND INTENSITY OF CONVECTION AND VARIABILITY OF WINDS WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN CLOSE PROXIMITY. SUB-VFR STRATUS POSSIBLE IN MORNING. KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS LIKELY ON FRI DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING AND INTENSITY OF CONVECTION AND VARIABILITY OF WINDS WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN CLOSE PROXIMITY. SUB-VFR STRATUS POSSIBLE IN MORNING. OUTLOOK FOR 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... FRI NIGHT...SUB VFR IN SHRA/TSRA LIKELY. SAT...IMPROVING CONDITIONS BEHIND A FRONT. SUN-MON...VFR. TUE...CHANCE OF MVFR OR LOWER IN THE MORNING. TSRA POSSIBLE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. && .MARINE... SCT CONVECTION POSSIBLE TONIGHT...OTHERWISE...WINDS/WAVES WILL BE TRANQUIL. A 2-FT SWELL WITH 15-SECOND PERIOD COULD MAKE FOR ROUGH CONDITIONS AT THE OCEAN INLETS THROUGH TONIGHT. A WAVE OF LOW PRES APPROACHES ON FRIDAY AND THEN PASSES THROUGH THE WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. CHANCES FOR CONVECTION INCREASES THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON AND PEAK IN THE EVENING. WINDS/WAVES WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE WATERS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE WATERS ON TUESDAY. ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. SOME 5 FT SEAS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS. && .HYDROLOGY... NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS HOWEVER POSSIBLE WITH ANY STRONGER CONVECTION. HOWEVER...IF THE ECMWF ENDS UP BEING CORRECT WITH THE STRENGTH AND LOCATION OF THE COASTAL LOW TRACKING TO OUR S FRIDAY NIGHT...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A SOAKING RAIN OF 0.5-1 INCH...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN STRONGER EMBEDDED CONVECTION. WHILE THIS DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY...THE POSSIBILITY IS HIGH ENOUGH THAT IT WARRANTS WATCHING AT THIS TIME. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$