AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
405 AM EDT SAT JUL 9 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE WATERS THIS MORNING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES FOR THIS AFTERNOON. THE
HIGH WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE
IN THE AFTERNOON. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH LATE
MONDAY...AND MOVE INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE FROM
CENTRAL CANADA BUILDS IN ON WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LOW PRESSURE AND RAIN RAPIDLY EXITING TO THE EAST. LAST OF THE
RAIN SHOULD BE CLEAR OF MONTAUK BY 530 AM. CLOUDS NOT FAR BEHIND
WITH CLEARING REACHING MONTAUK BY AROUND 9 AM. SOME FOG TO
START...BUT NOT EXPECTING THAT TO BE DENSE.

OTHERWISE BECOMING SKC AND SLOWLY FALLING DEW POINTS TO THE UPPER
50S BY LATE AFTERNOON.

USE WARMER GFS MOS FOR TEMPS, FULL SUN GETS US TO THE UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S. HAVE A LATE SEA BREEZE FOR LONG ISLAND...THOUGH THIS
DOES NOT GET TOO FAR (PERHAPS MONTAUK HIGHWAY) DUE TO THE NW
SYNOPTIC FLOW. THE LATEST HRRR AND LOCAL WRF.

MODERATE RIPS TODAY DUE TO ENHANCED WAVE ACTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
NICE WITH SKC...PERHAPS SOME THIN CIRRUS AT TIMES...AND LOW DEW POINT
TEMPS.

SOME AREAS OF FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT DUE TO LEFT OVER
MOISTURE FROM FRIDAY NIGHT`S RAIN. TEMPS INTO THE 50S INLAND AND
OUT TOWARDS THE PINE BARRENS. BLENDED MOS WAS USED AND SEEMS GOOD.

GOOD SEA BREEZE SUNDAY AFTERNOON WHICH KEEPS SOUTH SHORE AND CT
COAST TEMPS CAPPED AT AROUND 80. ELSEWHERE GENERALLY MID 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SW FLOW SUNDAY NIGHT STARTS THE RETURN OF THE HUMIDITY.

FOR MONDAY...MARITIME TROPICAL AIR MASS RETURNS AS DEW POINTS
APPROACH 70. ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TOWARDS INTERIOR LOCATIONS. PW VALUES INCREASE TO
BETWEEN 1.5 AND 2 INCHES.

MAX TEMPS CLOSE TO LATEST GUIDANCE MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH TUESDAY
POTENTIALLY INTO THE MID 90S FOR NYC METRO DEPENDING ON CLOUD
COVER WITH COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SEVERE POTENTIAL REALLY DEPENDS ON
FRONTAL TIMING...BUT CONSISTENCY OF MODELS APPEARS TO POINT
TOWARDS AFTERNOON AND FAVORED SEVERE CONVECTION WITH 00Z GFS
GIVING 35 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR AND 3000+ J/KG OF SBCAPE. SPC
DISCUSSES THIS...BUT HAS NOT PUT US IN SLIGHT RISK YET DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY OF TIMING AND THE RELATIVELY LONG RANGE. THUS WILL
WAIT AT LEAST ANOTHER DAY TO HIGHLIGHT IN OUR HWO. MORE HEAVY RAIN
IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THE HIGH PW VALUES.

COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT AS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TAPER OFF. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL BE SHIFTING
EAST OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AS WELL...TAKING BEST DYNAMIC
FORCING WITH IT.

THEREAFTER WEDNESDAY THROUGH REST OF LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES. 850MB TEMPS WILL BE NEAR 10 TO 11
DEGREES C. WNW FLOW ALOFT WILL TRANSITION TO MORE WESTERLY BY END OF
NEXT WEEK WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING IN. LAYER PW VALUES
DECREASE TO NEAR 0.5 AND THEN SLIGHTLY INCREASE BY END OF NEXT WEEK.
MAX TEMPS WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LEFTOVER IFR CIGS AT KISP/KGON AND MVFR CIGS AT KJFK SHOULD
GRADUALLY LIFT BY ABOUT 09Z. AFTER THAT...THERE IS A BRIEF WINDOW
WHERE SOME TERMINALS COULD SEE MVFR VSBY UNTIL ABOUT 12Z WHEN
STRONGER NORTHERLY FLOW SHOULD KICK IN...WITH 10-12 KT AND GUSTS
15-18 KT THIS MORNING UNTIL AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDDAY.

VFR THIS AFTERNOON WITH NW FLOW 10-15 KT...MOSTLY RIGHT OF 310.
COASTAL TERMINALS SHOULD SEE AT LEAST A PARTIAL SEA BREEZE COMPONENT
TO THE WIND LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH WINDS BACKING MORE WESTERLY.

SKC THIS EVENING...WITH DIMINISHING N WINDS.

OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

LATE TONIGHT...INLAND TERMINALS COULD SEE SOME SUB-VFR
VSBY...OTHERWISE SKC.

SUNDAY-MON...VFR.

MON NIGHT-TUE...CHANCE OF SUB-VFR. LOW STRATUS/FOG POSSIBLE LATE MON
NIGHT/TUE MORNING. SHOWERS/TSTMS ALSO POSSIBLE AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT...ESPECIALLY TUE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
TUE EVENING.

WED...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS ARE UP ON THE OCEAN AND WILL BUILD SLIGHT THROUGH THE DAY.
SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW 5 FT OVER ALL WATERS BY SUNDAY
MORNING. WIND SHIFTS LATE THIS AFTERNOON ON THE OCEAN ARE THE
RESULT OF THE SEA BREEZE TRYING TO FORM. BETTER SEA BREEZES ON
SUNDAY.

SUB SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH OCEAN WATERS SE OF MONTAUK
APPROACHING 5 FT BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. GUSTS UP
TO MOSTLY 20 KT AHEAD OF COLD FRONT AND THEN UP TO 25 KT IN SOME
OCEAN LOCATIONS BEHIND COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY.
OTHERWISE...SUB SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO PCPN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NEXT CHANCE FOR ORGANIZED HEAVY PCPN
COMES ON TUESDAY WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ350-353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JST