AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 137 PM EDT MON APR 18 2011 .SYNOPSIS... A STATIONARY FRONT JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION THE NEXT TWO DAYS WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA AS A WARM FRONT EARLY WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO EASTERN CANADA. THAT LOW/S COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE TO END THE WEEK. ANOTHER WARM AND COLD FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE REGION ON SATURDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING FOR SUNDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... FCST REMAINS ON TRACK THIS AFTN. SHORTWAVE OVER WRN PA APPROACHING THE AREA...WITH RADAR ECHOES APPROACHING THE CWA BUT NO PCPN REPORTED UPSTREAM. IT APPEARS THAT THE DRY LOW LEVELS WILL INHIBIT THE DEVELOPMENT OF RAIN. LOW CHANCES THEREFORE REMAIN IN THE FCST FOR TODAY. UPPER LEVEL VORT/CLOSED LOW SEEN OVER THE MARITIMES IS LIFTING OUT QUICKLY LEAVING A ZONAL PATTERN OVER THE EASTERN U.S. FRONT STALLS JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION THIS MORNING AND WEAKENS. WEAK WESTERLY FLOW AT SFC THIS MORNING BACKS TO SOUTHERLY THIS AFTN. PSEUDO SEA BREEZE ENHANCES FLOW AT COAST WITH AFFECT ON TEMPS. CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY DRY WITH MODEST 1000-500 MB RELATIVE HUMIDITIES...HOWEVER AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR SPRINKLE IS POSSIBLE LATE IN THE DAY NORTH AND WEST OF NYC...WHERE THERE WILL BE MORE MOISTURE TO LIFT OVER THE WARM FRONT...AND THICKNESS GRADIENTS WILL BE TIGHTER. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE...MAXING OUT IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S IN MOST SPOTS. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AFOREMENTIONED TIGHT THICKNESS GRADIENT SLOWLY PUSHES EAST THROUGH THE CWA MONDAY NIGHT...AS WEAK OVERRUNNING FLOW LEADS TO ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS...MAINLY OVER NORTHERN AREAS. WINDS AT THE SURFACE WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WITH A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT IN PLACE. A BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN ARRIVES FOR TUESDAY...IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND WARM AIR ADVECTION. KEPT THUNDER OUT OF FORECAST AS MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND LIFTED INDICES ARE NOT CONDUCIVE. LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE 50S. A MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE ADVANCES FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY. MODELS DIVERGE ON THE STRENGTH OF THIS TROUGH...AS WELL AS THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOWS. THE DETAILS ASIDE...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF RAIN WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN DUE TO DECENT WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT. DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE COLD FROPA...CONVECTION IS ALSO POSSIBLE. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... A DEPARTING COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO TREK EASTWARD ON THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE. THIS HIGH GRADUALLY BUILDS OVERHEAD BY FRIDAY MORNING AND MOVES EAST OF THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT DRY WEATHER THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD. ANOTHER PAC STORM SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES NEXT WEEKEND...FIRST IMPACTING THE AREA WITH OVERRUNNING RAIN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. ADDITIONAL RAIN...WITH POSSIBLE CONVECTION...WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. UNSETTLED WEATHER MAY CONTINUE INTO MONDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA WILL BECOME STATIONARY TONIGHT AS A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. VFR EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD...ALTHOUGH MVFR CONDS ARE POSSIBLE IN BR LATE TONIGHT. WIND FORECAST A BIT TRICKY TODAY WITH WEAK SFC RIDGING SLIDING EAST AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLED JUST S OF THE AREA. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK TO THE S THIS AFTN...THEN SE THIS EVE. SEABREEZE ENHANCEMENT POSSIBLE AT KJFK AFTER 19Z. WINDS LIGHTEN TONIGHT...BUT GUIDANCE DIVERGES ON DIRECTION AFTER 03Z OR SO. CURRENT FORECAST SHIFTS WINDS TO THE N-NE BUT THIS COULD VERY WELL BE MORE EASTERLY DEPENDING ON LOCATION OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND TIMING OF LOW. SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH WHERE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS AND HENCE AXIS OF PRECIP...COULD BE CONFINED MAINLY TO AREAS N OF NYC. ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT... DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE) KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS MAY NOT MATERIALIZE WITH SEA BREEZE ENHANCEMENT AFTER 20Z. KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CHANCE OF GUSTS UP TO 20 KT BETWEEN 20Z AND 00Z. KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CHANCE OF GUSTS UP TO 20 KT BETWEEN 20Z AND 00Z. KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS IN THE UPPER TEENS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY 17Z. KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS IN THE UPPER TEENS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY 17Z. KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS IN THE UPPER TEENS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BETWEEN 16Z AND 18Z. OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PERIODS OF SUB-VFR LIKELY IN SHOWERS. GUSTY WINDS/LLWS POSSIBLE. THUNDER ALSO POSSIBLE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THURSDAY...VFR WITH GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS. FRIDAY...VFR. && .MARINE... SCA CONVERTED TO A SCA FOR SEAS. NO OTHER CHANGES TO THE FCST. WINDS OVER ALL WATERS HAVE DROPPED TO BELOW SCA LEVELS...WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20 KT ATTM. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL SHORT OF SCA LEVELS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK. WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE 5 FT THROUGH WEDNESDAY FOR OCEAN FACING WATERS...DUE TO RESIDUAL WAVE ENERGY AND DEVELOPING SOUTHEAST FETCH AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WILL LIKELY EXTEND A SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS BEYOND THE CURRENT EXPIRATION TIME OF THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTY WINDS AND HIGH SEAS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THE AREA WATERS ON THURSDAY AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF THURSDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS. && .HYDROLOGY... ALL FLOOD WARNINGS AND STATEMENTS FOR THE OKX HSA HAVE BEEN EXPIRED OR CANCELLED. LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT AS A FRONT APPROACHES. PCPN AMOUNTS HOWEVER WILL BE LESS THAN 1/4 INCH SO NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED ON AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS. RAIN ALONG AND N OF A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT TUE AND TUE NIGHT. THIS EVENT WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING AROUND 1/2 INCH OF LIQUID...DEPENDING ON EXACTLY WHERE THE MAIN BAND OF FORCING SETS UP. ATTM THE MOST FAVORED AREAS WILL BE THE NRN HALF OF THE HSA AS WELL AS ACROSS NERN NJ. BASED ON FFG...RAINFALL APPROACHING MAX MODEL PROGS...LIKE THE NAM...MAY ALLOW SOME SMALL RIVERS AND STREAMS ACROSS THE LOWER HUSON VALLEY AND NERN NJ TO REACH MINOR FLOOD LEVELS. FOR THE MAIN RIVERS...PLEASE REFER TO THE AHPS PAGE FOR POINT SPECIFIC FCST LEVELS. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES TONIGHT BUT SURGE IS EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL WITH LIGHT WINDS FCST. NO COASTAL FLOODING IS THEREFORE FCST ATTM. NE FLOW AS A COLD FRONT STALLS S OF THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND TUE. THIS WOULD LEAD TO A MINOR SURGE. THIS SURGE...COUPLED WITH THE HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES...MAY LEAD TO AREAS OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING DURING THE TUE NIGHT HIGH TIDE CYCLE. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ350-353-355. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JST