AFDSJU Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Juan PR 132 PM AST Sat Dec 27 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1230 PM AST Sat Dec 27 2025 * Choppy to rough seas, localized beach erosion, and life- threatening rip currents will continue along exposed waters and beaches across the islands, hazardous for small craft and beachgoers through late Sunday night. * U.S. Virgin Islands: Weather conditions will remain generally stable, with occasional passing showers during the midweek period. No significant inland weather impacts are anticipated. * New Years Eve: Showers may become more frequent across the islands, with a limited flooding and lightning risk. Forecast confidence is moderate, as model guidance continues to fluctuate. && .Short Term(This evening through Monday)... Issued at 1230 PM AST Sat Dec 27 2025 Mostly sunny skies were observed across the islands today. A few clouds were developing around noon over the Cordillera Central and downwind of the USVI. Scattered showers can develop over these areas this afternoon, but mostly minor rainfall amounts are anticipated. Maximum temperatures were from the mid 80s across coastal areas to the mid 70s in the higher elevations of Puerto Rico. The wind was light from the east to northeast. Fair weather conditions are expected to prevail for the rest of the short-term period. The region will remain between a low-to mid-level ridge to the west and deep low pressure/trough over the central Atlantic. This will promote zonal flow aloft and overall dry and stable conditions for the next several days. At the surface, a front near 26N will remain north of the region, while a surface high pressure builds slowly by Monday over the western Atlantic. This will promote weak steering winds at the surface, with weak land and sea breeze variations prevailing each day over the islands. Moisture content is expected to remain below normal levels (less than 1 inch), as GFS guidance suggest the precipitable water content dropping to -2 STD of near 0.80 inches by Monday morning. This moisture content is trapped near the surface, and the weak steering winds with a northerly component could bring a few showers at night over the windward areas of the islands. && .Long Term(Tuesday through next Friday)... Issued at 419 AM AST Sat Dec 27 2025 From Tuesday through Thursday, a dry and stable winter pattern will dominate, supported by post-frontal dry air pushing southward and weak mid-level ridging. This will favor mostly fair weather, limited shower activity, and cooler nighttime temperatures typical for this time of year. During this same period, an eastward-moving surface high north of the region will mainly influence the wind pattern, maintaining a gentle to moderate east-southeast breeze through Thursday. A slight transition is expected later in the period as a short- wave trough approaches from the west. Although the latest guidance indicates its axis will remain west of the islands, it will still influence the region by weakening the mid-level ridge and supporting the development of a weak surface trough late Friday into Saturday. This setup may allow moisture to shift back toward the area, with the highest sensitivity across western Puerto Rico and the Mona Passage, while other areas experience more limited effects. From Wednesday night into Saturday, showers may become more frequent in favored areas, especially across western and interior Puerto Rico and exposed coastal locations, with a few periods of locally heavy rainfall possible. A low chance of isolated thunderstorms exists late Friday into early Saturday, mainly over western Puerto Rico and nearby waters, producing brief heavy rain, gusty winds, and lightning. Winds are expected to weaken and become more variable late Friday into Saturday due to the surface trough, which may support a warmer-than-normal feel on Friday, particularly during the afternoon. Forecast confidence is moderate, as moisture fields continue to shift and guidance oscillates between wetter and drier solutions. This variability is not necessarily negative, as New Years Eve currently trends drier with generally favorable conditions, though marine and beach hazards may continue. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1230 PM AST Sat Dec 27 2025 Mainly VFR conditions are expected to prevail across all terminals during the next 24 hours. However, brief MVFR cigs are possible at TJPS fm 27/18-22z due to -SHRA developing over central PR. The 27/12z TJSJ sounding indicated ENE winds up to 12 kt blo FL060. && .MARINE... Issued at 1230 PM AST Sat Dec 27 2025 A surface high pressure system over the western Atlantic will maintain light to moderate northeast winds across the local waters over the next few days. Meanwhile, pulses of long-period northerly swell will continue to spread into the region, maintaining hazardous marine conditions. Small Craft Advisories remain in effect through this afternoon due to seas around 7 feet. Looking ahead, additional pulses of northerly swell are expected early next week, which may bring another round of hazardous seas for small craft across the local waters. && .BEACH FORECAST... Issued at 1230 PM AST Sat Dec 27 2025 High surf and life-threatening rip current conditions continue across the north-facing beaches of Puerto Rico, including Culebra and the northern USVI. A High Surf Advisory remains in effect for northern PR through this afternoon, while a High Rip Current Risk continues through late Sunday night for the rest of the northern beaches of PR, Culebra and St. Thomas/St. John. Pulses of long period northerly swells will continue to arrive through midweek, and the High Rip Current Risk will likely remain in effect through at least Wednesday. && .SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PR...High Rip Current Risk through late Sunday night for PRZ001-002- 005-008-010-012. High Surf Advisory until 6 PM AST this evening for PRZ001-002- 005-008-010. VI...High Rip Current Risk through late Sunday night for VIZ001. AM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM AST this evening for AMZ711-712- 716-723-741-742. && $$