AFDSJU Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Juan PR 427 AM AST Wed Feb 18 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 420 AM AST Wed Feb 18 2026 * Afternoon showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected across interior and western Puerto Rico today. Although faster winds should limit rainfall totals, localized flooding remains possible, particularly in areas affected by repeated activity. * Hazardous seas and life-threatening rip currents are expected to develop Thursday and Friday with the arrival of a northerly swell. Small Craft Advisories and High Rip Current Risk statements will likely be required, and a High Surf Advisory cannot be ruled out. * Across the U.S. Virgin Islands, brief passing showers will continue mainly during the nighttime and early morning hours, followed by generally fair weather conditions each afternoon. && .Short Term(Today through Friday)... Issued at 420 AM AST Wed Feb 18 2026 A similar weather pattern will persist through today as troughiness aloft lingers across the northeastern Caribbean. The upper-level jet continues to exit the region, but cool 500 mb temperatures remain in place, maintaining modest instability aloft. At the surface, the col gradually shifts eastward, allowing east to east-northeast winds to increase once again across the local area. During the morning hours, mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies are expected, with passing showers moving across windward coastal areas of Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. As the day progresses, diurnal heating combined with local effects and residual troughiness aloft will promote the development of convective activity. Showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop primarily across the interior and western portions of Puerto Rico during the afternoon hours. However, steering flow will be stronger compared to previous days, resulting in faster-moving showers. This should limit rainfall accumulations somewhat, and therefore, the flood threat is expected to be lower than yesterday. Nevertheless, a limited flooding risk remains in place across interior and western Puerto Rico, with localized elevated flooding risk possible in areas that receive repeated activity. By Thursday and Friday, a transition toward a more stable pattern is anticipated as a mid- to upper-level ridge builds over the region. Mid-level dry air intrusion will gradually increase, while low-level moisture remains below to near-normal levels. This will promote generally fair weather conditions. Overnight and morning hours will feature a few passing showers across windward coastal areas, followed by isolated to scattered afternoon showers over interior and western Puerto Rico, driven mainly by local effects. Overall, a drying and stabilizing trend is expected through the end of the short-term period. && .Long Term(Saturday through Wednesday)... Issued at 420 AM AST Wed Feb 18 2026 No major changes to the long term forecast. To start the weekend, east to southeast flow will bring patches of moisture towards the islands with Precipitable Water (PWAT values) up to seasonal to slightly above normal for this time of the year. Patches of drier air will also filter into the area during the weekend. A Surface high over the southwestern to central Atlantic will persist during the weekend along with mid level ridging. These will promote warm 500 mb temperatures, sinking air, and stability aloft. Overnight and morning shower activity over windward sectors of the islands and afternoon showers over sectors of the interior to W-NW PR, as well as lines of showers from the local islands and el Yunque are possible. However, under this pattern, this activity should remain limited without much vertical extent (most available moisture should remain below 800 mb). Although this pattern will persist to start the workweek, uncertainty remains for Tuesday and into midweek as a deep-layered trough can move near and over the area and result in more unstable conditions. Seasonal to above seasonal 925 mb temperatures are forecast for the long term period, particularly to start the next workweek. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 420 AM AST Wed Feb 18 2026 Mainly VFR conds expected at all TAF sites thru the next 24 hrs. VCSH will persist across TIST/TISX/TJSJ overnight and during the morning. This aftn, VCTS possible at TJPS btwn 18-21Z. Brief MVFR conds possible in heavier SHRA/TSRA. Iso TSRA may result in tempo MVFR vsby/cigs and mtn obscurations across interior PR. Sfc winds ENE 8-15 kt with higher gusts near SHRA/TSRA. The 18/00Z TJSJ sndg indicated ENE winds up to 15 kt blo FL030. && .MARINE... Issued at 420 AM AST Wed Feb 18 2026 Winds will gradually increase today, as the weak front and associated pre-frontal trough move over the Central Atlantic. A surface high pressure building over the Western Atlantic will promote light to moderate easterly winds through the latter part of the week. Based on the latest model guidance, a long-period northerly swell is expected to arrive late tonight into early tomorrow and spread across the local waters and passages. Combined with strengthening winds, choppy to rough seas are likely, particularly over the Atlantic water, resulting in hazardous conditions for small craft. Hence, additional Small Craft Advisories may be required over the aforementioned zones. && .BEACH FORECAST... Issued at 420 AM AST Wed Feb 18 2026 Today, mainly tranquil beach conditions are expected across the islands, with a moderate risk of rip currents along the northern beach of Puerto Rico, including Culebra, for tonight and a low risk elsewhere. Although moderate rip current risk conditions will develop by this evening, beachgoers should exercise caution as life-threatening rip currents are possible along the surf zone as the day progresses. The beach conditions will likely deteriorate by tomorrow, Thursday, with the arrival of a long-period northerly swell combined with strengthening winds. Breaking waves between 6 and 7 feet are likely along north-facing beaches of Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands on Thursday and likely higher by Friday, resulting in life-threatening rip currents. Hence, a high risk of rip currents continues on the forecast for tomorrow, likely to persist through Saturday. Beach conditions should gradually improve by Sunday, lowering the rip current risk. Residents and visitors are encouraged to follow the flag warning system and to stay tuned for the next updates. && .SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PR...None. VI...None. AM...Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM Thursday to midnight AST Friday night for AMZ711. && $$