AFDSJU Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Juan PR 149 PM AST Tue Mar 3 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 138 PM AST Tue Mar 3 2026 * Breezy to windy conditions will persist across the islands through early next week. Unsecured items could blow around. * Fresh to strong winds will continue to produce choppy to rough seas across the offshore and nearshore Atlantic and Caribbean Waters, and the local passages. Small Craft Advisories are in effect for those areas. Inexperienced mariners should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions. * A moderate risk of rip currents will persist through late Wednesday night across most of the local beaches. A high rip current risk is forecast by early Thursday for the northern and eastern beaches of the islands due to the arrival of a northeast to easterly swell and breezy to windy conditions. * Patches of moisture will continue to filter across the islands dragged by the trade winds, producing passing showers from time to time. && .Short Term(This evening through Thursday)... Issued at 138 PM AST Tue Mar 3 2026 Tranquil conditions prevailed this morning as a drier airmass moved across the region. GOES-19 satellite imagery indicated a dry slot, with precipitable water (PWAT) values below 1.0 inch overspreading the area. As a result, several stations reported relative humidity values below 55 percent, with King Airport in St. Thomas recording a minimum of 43 percent as of 16Z. Breezy to windy conditions accompanied the drier air, with wind gusts reaching the lower 30s mph at times. For the remainder of the afternoon, expect isolated to scattered showers, mainly across interior and western Puerto Rico. Limited moisture and relatively warm mid-level temperatures will keep shower activity brief and localized. Looking ahead, a surface high pressure over the western Atlantic will maintain breezy to windy east to east-northeast flow through Wednesday and Thursday. Moisture levels are forecast to gradually increase, with PWAT values rising to around 1.5 to 1.7 inches by midweek, near to slightly above climatological normals. Shower activity will follow a typical seasonal pattern, with passing showers affecting windward areas during the overnight and morning hours, followed by isolated afternoon development over western Puerto Rico. Mid-level relative humidity values are forecast to fluctuate near seasonal averages; however, periods of patchy moisture streaming across the region will temporarily push values above normal. During these surges, enhanced cloud development and showery weather can be expected, particularly across windward coastal areas. Outside of these moisture pulses, drier air aloft will help limit rainfall coverage and duration. Overall, expect variable cloudiness, passing showers, and continued breezy conditions through Thursday, with no significant weather impacts anticipated. && .Long Term(Friday through next Monday)... Issued at 138 PM AST Tue Mar 3 2026 A broad and strong surface high pressure system over the western Atlantic will remain the dominant feature through the weekend into early next week, maintaining a tight local pressure gradient before gradually shifting northeast. This pattern will support persistent easterly winds with minor directional variations, ranging from strong breeze to moderate gale at times based on Beaufort scale equivalents. Aloft, a segment of the subtropical jet will extend across the northeastern Caribbean early in the period, followed by a short-wave trough approaching from the northeast. The trough is expected to linger west of the area near Hispaniola, promoting gradual cooling aloft and increasingly favorable upper-level conditions into early next week. Moisture will remain somewhat fragmented on Friday but will consolidate Friday night into the weekend, with above-normal precipitable water lingering through Monday before drier air filters in by Tuesday. From a hazards perspective, breezy to windy conditions will remain the primary concern, particularly across coastal and exposed areas, contributing to hazardous marine and beach conditions. Although periods of above-normal low-level moisture may increase the frequency of passing showers, persistent mid-level dryness should limit vertical development and rainfall efficiency. As a result, showers are expected to be mostly fast-moving, with brief moderate rainfall possible across windward areas during the overnight and morning hours and isolated afternoon activity over interior and western Puerto Rico. Widespread flooding is not anticipated; however, localized ponding in poor drainage areas cannot be ruled out. A gradual drying trend by Tuesday should further reduce shower coverage, while breezy conditions and hazardous seas may persist. Overall, wind and marine hazards will remain the dominant impacts through the period. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 138 PM AST Tue Mar 3 2026 Mainly VFR conds expected thru the period. E to ENE sfc winds 1525 kt with gusts 2530 kt will continue to impact all terminals, producing areas of turb blo FL080, especially leeward of terrain. VCSH will affect TJSJ/TJBQ/TJPS at times thru 04/06Z. Aft 04/06Z, increasing SHRA activity may result in brief MVFR CIGs/VIS, mainly at TIST, TISX, and TJSJ. CIGs could lower to SCT/BKN025-035 with reduced VIS in heavier SHRA. Winds diminish slightly overnight to 10- 12 kt with higher gusts, remaining ENE. && .MARINE... Issued at 138 PM AST Tue Mar 3 2026 A surface high-pressure system over the central Atlantic, along with another building over the north western Atlantic, will promote fresh to locally strong east to northeasterly winds throughout the forecast period. These conditions will maintain choppy to rough seas. Small Craft Advisories are in effect for most of the regional waters and local passages. Small craft operators should exercise caution elsewhere and continue to monitor the forecast for any update or adjustments. && .BEACH FORECAST... Issued at 138 PM AST Tue Mar 3 2026 A moderate risk of life-threatening rip currents will persist today for most local beaches due to breezy to windy coastal conditions. From Wednesday onward, beach conditions are expected to deteriorate further, increasing the likelihood of life-threatening rip currents. Confused seas driven by strong trade winds, combined with the arrival of a northeast to easterly wind swell, will likely elevate the risk to high for the northern and eastern beaches of Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. For additional information and location- specific rip current details, please visit: weather.gov/beach/sju. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 138 PM AST Tue Mar 3 2026 Elevated fire weather conditions have been occurring since late this morning across portions of southern Puerto Rico and are expected to persist for a prolonged period through the remainder of today, compared to the more brief episodes observed in previous days. Relative humidity values have dropped to around 50-52 percent, while the Keetch-Byram Drought Index (KBDI) at Cabo Rojo is 652, indicating critically dry fuels highly receptive to ignition and rapid fire spread. Sustained winds have exceeded 15 mph, with peak sustained winds over 20 mph and gusts between 30 and 35 mph, and no rainfall is expected. Some locations may observe critical fire danger conditions at times. These breezy to locally windy conditions combined with very dry fuels will support rapid fire growth if a fire starts, and outdoor burning is strongly discouraged. && .SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PR...None. VI...None. AM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM AST Friday for AMZ711-716-723- 726-733-741. Small Craft Advisory from noon Wednesday to 6 AM AST Friday for AMZ712. && $$