AFDSJU Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Juan PR 231 AM AST Sat Feb 21 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 205 AM AST Sat Feb 21 2026 * Life-threatening rip currents continue across the northern beaches of Puerto Rico, Culebra, St. Thomas, and St. John. * Near to above-normal daytime temperatures will continue through the next few days. However, mostly clear skies at night will allow for cooler temperatures overnight. * Across the U.S. Virgin Islands, breezy, sunny to partly cloudy skies, and passing showers are expected today. && .Short Term(Today through Monday)... Issued at 205 AM AST Sat Feb 21 2026 Clear to partly cloudy skies prevailed across the islands during the overnight and early morning hours. Passing trade wind showers were observed across the U.S. Virgin Islands and eastern portions of Puerto Rico. This activity is expected to continue through the rest of the morning hours. Followed by limited shower development in the afternoon hours over portions of central and western PR. Flooding is not anticipated, but ponding of water on roads and in poor drainage areas is possible. Minimum temperatures were from the upper 50s across the higher elevations of PR, to the upper 60s and low 70s across the lower elevations of the islands. The wind was from the east between 8 and 12 mph with land breeze variations. The main hazard today will be the life-threatening rip currents along the northern beaches of PR, Culebra, St. Thomas, and St. John. A Rip Current Statement is in effect through this evening for these areas. The local area will continue under the influence of a low-to mid- level ridge, and a broad surface high pressure over the Central Atlantic. This pattern is supporting moderate to fresh trade winds, drier air aloft, and overall stable conditions in general. Winds will gradually turn more east to southeast late in the period as a surface low and associated cold front moves over the Western Atlantic. In terms of precipitation, patches of low-level moisture embedded in the trade winds will move at times from the Tropical Atlantic. This will promote passing showers across the USVI and windward areas of the islands for most of the period. In the afternoon, the combination of the available moisture content with daytime heating, and the sea breeze convergence should lead to the development of showers over portions of west/northwest PR. However, flooding is not anticipated with this activity through the rest of the weekend. Daily high temperatures should range from the upper 80s to low 90s across the lower elevations of the islands, to the mid-70s across the higher elevations. Minimum temperatures are expected to remain from the upper 50s across the higher elevations to the low 70s across coastal areas. Winds will continue from the east to east- southeast in general between 15 and 20 mph, with sea/land breeze variations during the day/night. && .Long Term(Tuesday through Saturday)... Issued at 205 AM AST Sat Feb 21 2026 Unstable conditions are expected at the beginning of the long- term period as a pre-frontal trough, associated with an approaching frontal boundary, moves northwest of the area and north of Hispaniola. Meanwhile, a broad high-pressure system over the Central Atlantic continues to promote a southeasterly wind flow across the region. Under these conditions, a weak pressure gradient resulting from this interaction will cause winds to become light and variable through at least Wednesday. Precipitable water content will remain above normal during this period, with values reaching 1.50 to 1.90 inches. This moist and unstable pattern will favor the development of afternoon convective activity across central and northwestern Puerto Rico. Temperatures at the 500 mb level will range between -7 to -8C; combined with instability aloft from an upper-level trough, this could enhance the potential for a few isolated thunderstorms. During this period, the risk of excessive rainfall remains limited, though ponding of water in urban and poor drainage areas and minor flooding may occur in the aforementioned areas. By Wednesday, winds are expected to shift from the east in response to a surface high pressure building over the western Atlantic. As this high migrates toward the central Atlantic, winds will gradually increase. From Thursday onward, a more stable weather pattern will return to the local area as the surface high strengthens over the Central Atlantic and a mid-to-upper level ridge establishes over the region. Therefore, passing showers carried by the trade winds are anticipated to affect windward portions of the U.S. Virgin Islands and eastern Puerto Rico during the early morning hours, followed by afternoon convection across the interior and western Puerto Rico. This pattern is expected to prevail through the end of the period. Temperatures at the 925 mb level will remain above climatological values each day due to the combination of available moisture and southeasterly wind flow. Highs are forecast to reach the mid-to- upper 80s in lower elevations and the upper 70s to low 80s across the higher elevations. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 205 AM AST Sat Feb 21 2026 Mainly VFR conditions are expected to prevail across all terminals during the next 24 hours. However, SHRA en route from the Leeward terminals may cause brief MVFR cigs across the USVI terminals thru 21/20z, meanwhile, locally induced -SHRA expected to develop in and around TJSJ/TJBQ btw 21/16-22z. East winds expected to increase around 15 kt with stronger gusts and sea breeze variations aft 21/14z. && .MARINE... Issued at 205 AM AST Sat Feb 21 2026 Marine conditions will continue to improve across the local waters as a northerly swell subsides, resulting in seas up to 6 feet across the Atlantic waters during the day. However, small craft operators are still urged to exercise caution across most local waters due to seas up to 6 feet and winds up to 20 knots. Seas are forecast to deteriorate once again on Tuesday as another northerly swell reaches the local waters and builds seas up to 8 feet. Mariners are encouraged to stay tuned for further updates. && .BEACH FORECAST... Issued at 205 AM AST Sat Feb 21 2026 A fading long-period northerly swell will continue to generate life-threatening rip currents across the northern beaches of the islands. A High Rip Current Risk remains in effect for the north- facing beaches of St. Thomas, St. John, Puerto Rico, and Culebra through this evening. Breaking waves up to 6 feet and higher at times are expected along these beaches. A moderate risk of rip currents is expected on Sunday across most east and north facing beaches of the islands. Another northerly swell will once again deteriorate coastal conditions by the middle of the upcoming workweek, resulting in dangerous rip currents along the northern coasts of the islands. Beachgoers are urged to stay out of these exposed waters, continue monitoring forecast updates, and follow all local advisories, warnings, and lifeguard and official guidance. For more information, visit: weather.gov/beach/sju. && .SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PR...High Rip Current Risk through this afternoon for PRZ001-002-005- 008-010-012. VI...High Rip Current Risk through this afternoon for VIZ001. AM...None. && $$