AFDSJU Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Juan PR 305 AM AST Tue Feb 10 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 305 AM AST Tue Feb 10 2026 * Life-threatening surf and rip current conditions will continue along north-facing beaches, with high surf impacts through Wednesday afternoon, a high rip current risk through Thursday afternoon, and minor coastal flooding possible in vulnerable low-lying areas through this afternoon, especially around high tide. * Hazardous marine conditions will persist through midweek due to elevated seas and long-period swell, creating dangerous conditions for mariners and small craft. * Breezy to locally windy conditions will persist across coastal and exposed areas, contributing to hazardous conditions. * Cloudy but generally tranquil conditions will persist, with cooler-than-normal temperatures through Wednesday, followed by a gradual warming trend and increasing rain potential late in the week, with more stable conditions expected into the weekend. && .Short Term(Today through Thursday)... Issued at 305 AM AST Tue Feb 10 2026 Fair weather conditions largely prevailed overnight, though skies remained mostly cloudy due to persistent mid- to upper-level cloud cover associated with a nearby frontal boundary. Radar indicated an area of light to occasionally moderate rainfall streaming eastward through much of the night before gradually dissipating; rainfall amounts were generally under a quarter of an inch across parts of northern Puerto Rico, portions of the local islands, and the U.S. Virgin Islands, with no significant impacts observed. Overnight minimum temperatures so far have dropped into the upper 50s across higher elevations, while coastal areas and the U.S. Virgin Islands remain in the upper 70s, with some additional cooling possible toward sunrise. Northerly winds persisted overnight at 510 mph across most coastal areas, increasing to around 15 mph with occasional gusts in more exposed locations. A broad and strong surface high pressure system over the western Atlantic will dominate the synoptic pattern today and tonight, maintaining a tight pressure gradient and driving strong northerly to north-northeasterly winds across the region. Sustained winds around 2025 knots, with higher gusts exceeding 30 mph, will affect coastal areas and higher terrain, supporting continued cool air advection and keeping temperatures below normal through tonight. Strong low-level flow will result in a higher frequency of trade-wind showers, mainly affecting northern Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra, and the U.S. Virgin Islands, while an upper-level disturbance and associated short-wave trough brushing the northeastern Caribbean may briefly weaken the trade- wind inversion and allow for limited periods of deeper moisture. Despite this, rainfall amounts are expected to remain light, with any impacts confined to localized ponding of water and isolated minor urban flooding. Overall, strong non-thunderstorm winds will remain the primary hazard, with only a very low potential for thunderstorms and localized minor flooding, neither of which is included in the general forecast. As the surface high shifts farther east, winds will veer from northeasterly to east-northeasterly on Wednesday, remaining breezy through Wednesday night before gradually weakening late Wednesday night into Thursday while continuing to veer to east-southeasterly to southeasterly. A weak mid-level ridge moving across the region Wednesday into early Thursday will allow the trade-wind inversion to briefly rebuild and limit vertical moisture development. By Thursday, a short-wave trough digging deeper into the Caribbean, combined with veering low-level flow, will pull a band of deeper tropical moisture northeastward across the area. Increased deep- layer moisture and more favorable conditions aloft, including cooling and upper-level divergence, will support heavier rain showers on Thursday, with localized flooding possible, mainly in urban and poor-drainage areas. Temperatures will begin a gradual warming trend on Thursday, especially as winds shift to the southeast and cooler air advection weakens. Drier air will move in behind the moisture band late Thursday night, with the departure of the trough and the development of a mid-level ridge promoting increased subsidence and more stable conditions. Winds will remain the primary hazard on Wednesday, while localized flooding becomes the main concern on Thursday; a low potential for isolated thunderstorms exists but is not included in the forecast. && .Long Term(Friday through Tuesday)... Issued at 305 AM AST Tue Feb 10 2026 The long-term forecast remains on track as a weak upper-level trough approaches the local islands from the northwest. At the surface, a high-pressure system over the central Atlantic will continue to shift eastward, promoting light to moderate southeasterly winds through Sunday. Winds will then shift from the east as another surface high builds over the western Atlantic and migrates toward the central Atlantic through the end of the period. By Monday and Tuesday, a mid-to-upper-level ridge will establish across the region, promoting stable conditions aloft. The latest precipitable water (PWAT) analysis reflects this stability, showing values within the seasonal climatological range of 1.20 to 1.50 inches. Under this pattern, trade-wind moisture will bring passing morning showers to portions of eastern Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands, followed by afternoon convective activity over central and western Puerto Rico. Given the current outlook, the flooding threat remains limited, particularly through the first half of the period. Temperatures at the 925 mb level will gradually rise to above-normal levels starting Friday as southeasterly flow brings abundant moisture. Consequently, humid and warm conditions are expected to persist through the weekend and into early next week. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 305 AM AST Tue Feb 10 2026 All TAF sites will remain VFR thru the fcst pd under persistent midupper lvl clds, with ocnl brief vsby reductions psbl in trade- wind SHRA. VCSH may affect most terminals thru the day, with the highest coverage and impacts over nrn PR and USVI sites, though no sig flt cat restrictions xpctd. Sfc winds NNNE will persist thru the pd, 812 kt early, incrg to 1620 kt aft 10/13Z, then easing to 1015 kt aft 10/23Z, with ocnl gsts. Overall, the fcst pd will be dominated by strong N flow and gsty conds, which will be the primary aviation concern, with ocnl mech turb psbl near trrn and coastal terminals. && .MARINE... Issued at 305 AM AST Tue Feb 10 2026 A surface high pressure moving off the US coast will yield moderate to fresh northerly winds through late tonight. A weak frontal boundary will linger over the region during the next few days, promoting cloudiness and light to moderate showers. A large, long period north-northwest swell will continue to bring hazardous seas across the Atlantic waters and passages through at least early Thursday. Seas will peak overnight around 13 feet. Small Craft Advisories are in effect for most local waters exposed to the NW swell. && .BEACH FORECAST... Issued at 305 AM AST Tue Feb 10 2026 A large, long-period north-northwest swell will continue to spread across the Atlantic waters and local Caribbean passages over the next few days. The peak of this swell event is expected through this morning. Current observations at the San Juan buoy (41053) show seas around 12 feet with periods of 14 to 15 seconds, which could result in breaking waves of approximately 13 to 16 feet, and occasionally higher. High surf conditions, life-threatening rip currents, and minor coastal flooding are expected with this large breaking wave action along the northwest to northeast coasts of Puerto Rico, Culebra, Vieques, and the northern U.S. Virgin Islands. A Coastal Flood Advisory, High Surf Advisory, and High Rip Current Statements remain in effect. Life-threatening rip currents will be the main coastal hazard across the northern exposed beaches of St. Croix. Beachgoers are urged to stay out of the water, continue monitoring forecast updates, and follow all local advisories, warnings, and guidance from lifeguards and local officials as conditions continue to deteriorate. && .SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PR...Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 PM AST this evening for PRZ001- 002-005-008-010-012. High Rip Current Risk through Thursday afternoon for PRZ001-002- 005-008-010-012. High Surf Advisory until 6 PM AST Wednesday for PRZ001-002-005- 008-010-012. High Rip Current Risk through late Wednesday night for PRZ011- 013. High Surf Advisory until 6 PM AST this evening for PRZ013. VI...Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 PM AST this evening for VIZ001. High Rip Current Risk through Thursday afternoon for VIZ001. High Surf Advisory until 6 PM AST Wednesday for VIZ001. High Rip Current Risk through late Wednesday night for VIZ002. AM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM AST Thursday for AMZ711-712-716- 723-726-733-741-742-745. && $$