AFDSJU Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Juan PR 156 PM AST Wed Jan 21 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 116 PM AST Wed Jan 21 2026 * Choppy to rough seas and life-threatening rip currents will result in hazardous conditions for small craft and beachgoers. Small Craft Advisories and High Rip Current Statements will remain in effect through at least Thursday afternoon. * Breezy to windy conditions will continue tonight and tomorrow, which could cause outdoor items to be blown around or damaged. * A surface trough moving westward across the region from early tomorrow into Friday will gradually deteriorate weather conditions, increasing the potential for showers and isolated thunderstorms. && .Short Term(This evening through Friday)... Issued at 116 PM AST Wed Jan 21 2026 Breezy condition prevailed across the islands today, with gusts up to 35 mph reported between eastern Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. Quick passing showers left mostly minor rainfall accumulations over land areas through the morning hours, while cloudiness and light showers were developing early in the afternoon over southwestern PR. Maximum temperatures were in the mid-80s in general across the lower elevations. Easterly winds between 15 and 25 mph with stronger gusts will continue during the next few days as a broad surface high pressure continues to build over the central Atlantic. An upper-level trough east of the Leeward Islands will induce a surface trough that will cross the local area on Thursday. This trough will bring a surge in moisture content through the end of the workweek, therefore, expect showers to increase in frequency and intensity from tonight onward. Due to the fast-moving nature of these showers, widespread flooding is not expected, however, expect ponding of water along roads and other poor drainage areas. Although the 500 mb temperatures are expected to drop around -7C, the position of the upper-level trough should not favor thunderstorm development, however, brief isolated thunderstorms cannot be ruled out over portions of the local waters late in the period. Seasonal temperatures will continue under the breezy winds and occasional trade wind showers. && .Long Term(Saturday through next Wednesday)... Issued at 508 AM AST Wed Jan 21 2026 Increased moisture and instability will carry from the short term period into Saturday, as the moisture field from the disturbance continues over the region promoting above seasonal precipitable water (PWAT) values (1.50 to near 2 inches). Saturday looks to be the wettest day in the long term period, with advective showers steered by easterly flow and convective afternoon showers over interior to western PR. Improved weather conditions are forecast from late Saturday through Sunday as the atmospheric disturbance and moisture field moves westward and out of the region and drier air advects into the area. Patches of drier and moist air will then promote seasonal (<1.50 in) to below seasonal (<1.20 in) PWAT values over the area. A dominant high-pressure system over the Atlantic will establish a generally more seasonal easterly steering flow, moving advective showers into windward areas, particularly in the morning and overnight hours. Subsidence in the mid-to-upper levels of the atmosphere will inhibit shower development; however, localized effects may still induce convective showers, though no flooding is anticipated. Most available moisture will be limited to below 800 mb. The limited wind risk will gradually subside during the weekend. 925 mb temperatures will remain at seasonal values, overnight patchy fog is also forecast over areas of the interior. Model guidance suggests that variations in this pattern will occur due to an upper trough moving east of the region to start the workweek and a shift in easterly flow on Wednesday to become more northeasterly. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 116 PM AST Wed Jan 21 2026 Mainly VFR conditions are expected to prevail across all terminals during the next 24 hours. However, -SHRA en route from the Leeward terminals will increase overnight into Thursday morning, causing brief MVFR conds at TISX/TIST/TJSJ. The 21/12z TJSJ sounding indicated E-ENE winds up to 28 kt blo FL080. Strong trades will continue overnight, with possible gusts btw 20-25 kt at times. && .MARINE... Issued at 116 PM AST Wed Jan 21 2026 A broad surface high pressure over the central Atlantic will continue to strengthen during the next few days, tightening the local pressure gradient and promoting fresh to locally strong easterlies through much of the rest of workweek. Shower activity is expected to increase on Thursday as a surface trough moves across the region. && .BEACH FORECAST... Issued at 116 PM AST Wed Jan 21 2026 A High Rip Current Risk remains in effect across the east and northern coasts of Puerto Rico, including Culebra, and the U.S. Virgin Islands, due to rough surf conditions with breaking waves up to 6 feet. Residents and visitors are urged to continue following the warning flag system and to favor beaches with a lower rip current risk, such as those along Puerto Rico`s western and southern coasts. The high risk of rip currents is likely to continue through the rest of the workweek due to the increase in winds and choppy seas. For the western and southern coastal areas, where the risk remains moderate, beachgoers can expect breezy to locally windy conditions to continue, which may still result in unsecured objects being blown around, particularly in the most exposed locations. Beachgoers should remain cautious both in and near the water until conditions improve further. && .SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PR...High Rip Current Risk through Thursday afternoon for PRZ001-002- 005-008-012. VI...High Rip Current Risk through Thursday afternoon for VIZ001-002. AM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM AST Thursday for AMZ711-712-716- 723-726-733-741. Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 6 PM AST Thursday for AMZ735. && $$