AFDSJU Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Juan PR 145 AM AST Sat Mar 7 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 122 AM AST Sat Mar 7 2026 * Breezy to locally windy conditions will continue across Puerto Rico and the USVI through at least the middle of next week; unsecured and outdoor objects may blow around. * Fresh to strong winds will result in choppy to rough seas and high risk of rip currents across the region. Small Craft Advisories and Rip Current Statements continue in effect through at least early next week. * Patches of moisture will filter across the islands from the E to ENE at times during the forecast period, increasing fast-moving shower frequency. * A wet and unstable weather pattern may promote daily showers and thunderstorm development across the US Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico through much of the upcoming workweek. && .Short Term(Today through Monday)... Issued at 122 AM AST Sat Mar 7 2026 Unsettled weather conditions prevailed overnight across Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands as an atmospheric disturbance moved through the northeastern Caribbean. With precipitable water (PWAT) values exceeding 1.70 inches, this system brought in very moist, humid air, triggering scattered showers across portions of eastern and northern Puerto Rico, Vieques, Culebra, and the U.S. Virgin Islands. Because these showers are moving relatively quickly due to breezy conditions, Doppler radar has observed only minimal rainfall accumulations. Overnight lows remained in the mid-to-upper 70s across lower elevations and the mid-to-upper 60s in higher terrain. Winds have prevailed from the east at 10 to 12 knots, with higher gusts occurring near the heaviest showers. As the disturbance continues to move across the islands today, it will maintain high moisture levels and promote wet conditions through midday. The anticipated rainfall could lead to ponding of water in roads and poor drainage areas. By the afternoon, the disturbance will shift over the Mona Passage, allowing relatively drier air to filter into the region and causing PWAT values to decrease. However, the combination of lingering moisture, daytime heating, and local effects may still trigger shower activity and isolated thunderstorms across western Puerto Rico. Instability aloftsupported by 500 mb temperatures between -9 and -10C will further enhance the potential for these thunderstorms. From Sunday onward, conditions will gradually improve and return to seasonal conditions as a strong surface high over the central Atlantic dominates the local weather pattern. This high will maintain a tight pressure gradient, resulting in breezy to windy easterly flow through midweek. Sustained winds of 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts will continue, with higher gusts up to 30 mph. Therefore, posing a limited to locally elevated wind risk where unsecured items could be blown around. Temperatures at the 925 mb level are expected to remain seasonal throughout the period. Highs will range from the mid-80s across lower elevations to the upper 70s and low 80s in the higher elevations. && .Long Term(Tuesday through Saturday)... Issued at 122 AM AST Sat Mar 7 2026 An upper-level trough is expected to remain near the northeastern Caribbean through much of the upcoming workweek, with a persistent jet aloft supporting a more unstable atmospheric profile than typically observed in early March. Model guidance suggests that 500 mb temperatures will fall below climatological values, while mid-level lapse rates remain near or slightly above normal. At the same time, deep-layer moisture is forecast to gradually increase, with precipitable water values generally ranging from 1.4 to 1.75 inches, especially on Thursday and Friday. These conditions will weaken the trade wind inversion and support deeper convective development across the region. At the surface, building high pressure across the Atlantic will promote breezy to locally windy east-to-northeast winds through Thursday, gradually easing late in the week. Embedded moisture patches moving within this flow will result in passing showers across windward areas of Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands during the nighttime and morning hours, followed by locally driven convection across interior and western Puerto Rico each afternoon. If this scenario materializes, residents and visitors across Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands can expect occasional breezy to locally windy conditions, along with periods of moderate to locally heavy rainfall. These showers could result in ponding of water on roadways and in poorly drained areas, as well as localized urban and small-stream flooding. Additionally, isolated thunderstorms may produce lightning and brief periods of gusty winds. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 122 AM AST Sat Mar 7 2026 Mainly VFR conds will prevail across all TAF sites during the forecast period. An atmospheric disturbance will be moving across the area promoting SHRA and VCTS across TJSJ/TIST/TISX thru 07/22-23Z. VCSH possible over TJPS/TJBQ aft 07/14Z thru 07/23Z. E winds at 10 kt or less thru 07/14z. Increasing btwn 15-20 kt with gusts higher than 25 kt, and sea breeze variations aft 07/13-14Z thru 07/23Z. && .MARINE... Issued at 122 AM AST Sat Mar 7 2026 A series of high-pressure systems across the Atlantic will maintain fresh to locally strong east-northeasterly winds throughout the forecast period, resulting in choppy to rough seas across most regional waters and local passages. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect through at least Sunday, as offshore waters see seas reaching 8 feet and winds up to 25 knots, while coastal waters can expect 7-foot seas and similar wind speeds. Smaller vessels are strongly advised to avoid navigating in these hazardous conditions. Additionally, shower and thunderstorm activity is expected to increase across local waters as an easterly disturbance moves through the northeast Caribbean tonight into Saturday morning. && .BEACH FORECAST... Issued at 122 AM AST Sat Mar 7 2026 Hazardous beach conditions will persist across the islands as strengthening trade winds generate breezy conditions across regional waters and passages. Consequently, a Rip Current Statement remains in effect through Sunday for the northern and eastern beaches of Puerto Rico, Vieques, Culebra, and the U.S. Virgin Islands. Residents and visitors are urged to monitor conditions closely and strictly adhere to the advice of beach patrols, flag systems, and posted signage. While a moderate risk continues elsewhere for the next several days, all beachgoers should exercise caution, as life-threatening rip currents remain possible within the surf zone. && .SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PR...High Rip Current Risk through late Sunday night for PRZ001-002- 005-008-012-013. VI...High Rip Current Risk through late Sunday night for VIZ001-002. AM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM AST Monday for AMZ711-712-716- 723-726-733-741. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM AST this evening for AMZ735. && $$