AFDSJU Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Juan PR 214 PM AST Thu Feb 19 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 214 PM AST Thu Feb 19 2026 * Life-threatening rip currents and dangerous surf continue across the Atlantic beaches of Puerto Rico (Rincon to Fajardo), and life-threatening rip currents along eastern PR, Culebra, St. Thomas, St. John, and nearby islands through at least Friday evening. * Expect above normal temperatures across the region, with limited flooding risk from scattered afternoon showers across the interior and western Puerto Rico each afternoon and brief passing showers across eastern PR and the U.S. Virgin Islands. * Rain chances increase by midweek next week, mainly across the interior and western Puerto Rico, from Wednesday through Thursday. Please, actively monitor forecasts for updates as conditions become more unsettled. && .Short Term(This evening through Saturday)... Issued at 214 PM AST Thu Feb 19 2026 Maximum temperatures were in the mid-80s to the upper-80s, with heat indices in the mid-90s. Winds were from the east at 10 to 15 mph, with higher gusts and sea-breeze variations. The skies were mostly clear through the morning hours. Hazardous coastal conditions will continue today as dangerous surf battered the Atlantic Coastline, causing life-threatening rip currents and very dangerous surf conditions for beachgoers from Rincon to Fajardo. At the same time, Culebra, eastern PR, St Thomas, St John, and the adjacent islands have a high risk of rip currents. These hazardous coastal conditions will last through at least Friday afternoon. Local effects will promote the formation of showers across western PR, so there is a limited chance of flooding rains later this afternoon into the evening. The limited chance of flooding rains means that moderate to locally heavy rains will result in ponding of water on roads and in poorly drained areas, with a low chance of urban and small streams flooding. The rest of the islands will be under the influence of easterlies, which could bring one or two quick, passing showers across windward locations in the US Virgin Islands and PR, but, in general, they can expect mostly clear skies. A ridge pattern at mid- to upper levels will promote a somewhat stable weather pattern over the Northeast Caribbean, limiting the development of showers or flooding rains across the US Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Friday and Saturday. However, overnight and morning hours will bring passing trade wind showers to eastern Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. In the afternoon, isolated to scattered showers will occur in the interior and western regions of Puerto Rico, driven by sea breeze variations and local effects. This activity is expected to remain mostly shallow due to the dry air and subsidence aloft. Overall, mostly fair weather conditions are anticipated to continue through the end of the short-term period. && .Long Term(Sunday through next Wednesday)... Issued at 450 AM AST Thu Feb 19 2026 To start the next week, southeasterly steering flow will bring patches of moisture to the region with Precipitable Water (PWAT) values at normal to slightly above normal for this time of the year. Patches of drier air with seasonal to below seasonal PWAT will also reach the region. As a frontal boundary approaches by mid week, steering flow will back to become more easterly and promote an increase in available moisture and PWAT values late Wednesday and Thursday. A surface high over the southwestern to central Atlantic will gradually move away from the region to start the week as a frontal low moves over the western Atlantic. However, another surface high will move into the western to central Atlantic by midweek. Upper level ridging will also be displaced out of the region to start the week with a deep layer trough will possibly approach the region by the latter half of the long term period. Available moisture can reach above 700 mb to the mid to upper levels, with cooler mid level temps and general instability. Overnight and morning shower activity over windward sectors of the islands and afternoon showers over sectors of the interior to W-NW PR, as well as lines of showers from the local islands and el Yunque are forecast under the southeasterly flow. Under the more easterly flow by midweek and increased moisture this pattern could be enhanced with afternoon convection over interior to western PR. Seasonal to above seasonal 925 mb temperatures are forecast for the long term period, particularly to start the next workweek. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 214 PM AST Thu Feb 19 2026 VFR conditions are expected over the next 24 hours. Brief VCSH are possible during the overnight period across TISX, TIST & TJSJ. Aft 20/17Z, VCSH will be possible near TJBQ. Winds becoming lighter overnight across all TAF sites, after 20/14Z winds will prevail mainly form the E at around 10 to 15 kts with gusts up to 20 to 22 kts and during typical sea breeze variations. && .MARINE... Issued at 214 PM AST Thu Feb 19 2026 A long-period northerly swell will continue to spread across the local Atlantic waters and passages through Friday evening. At the same time, a surface high pressure building over the Western Atlantic will promote light to moderate easterly winds through Friday, becoming moderate to locally fresh by Friday night. Thus, confused moderate to rough seas will result in hazardous seas for small craft during this period. Small Craft Advisories remain in effect over the Atlantic offshore and coastal waters through late Friday night. A gradual improvement in marine conditions is expected later in the weekend. Another swell could reach the islands by the middle of next week. && .BEACH FORECAST... Issued at 214 PM AST Thu Feb 19 2026 Beach conditions will become more hazardous as a long-period northerly swell continues to spread across the Atlantic waters and local Caribbean passages through the rest of today and into tonight. NDBC buoy observations at San Juan and Rincon are already showing wave heights of 5 to 6 feet at 12 to 13 seconds, as a result, breaking waves are currently around 10 to 11 feet. Observations at Buoy 41043 have been showing seas of 8 to 10 feet at 13 to 14 seconds from the north, and part of that energy will continue to arrive tonight. The latest model guidance indicates that the swell will peak tonight through Friday morning. Therefore, high surf conditions and life-threatening rip currents will continue along the beaches from northwestern to northeastern Puerto Rico, including Culebra, as well as St. Thomas and St. John in the U.S. Virgin Islands. A High Surf Advisory is in effect through at least through Friday afternoon, as well as the High Rip Current Risk Statement. Beachgoers and inexperienced surfers are urged to stay out of the water, continue monitoring forecast updates, and follow all local advisories, warnings, and guidance from lifeguards and local officials as conditions deteriorate. && .SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PR...High Rip Current Risk through late Friday night for PRZ001-002- 005-008-010-012. High Surf Advisory until 6 PM AST Friday for PRZ001-002-005-008- 010. VI...High Rip Current Risk through late Friday night for VIZ001. AM...Small Craft Advisory until midnight AST Friday night for AMZ711- 712. && $$