AFDSJU Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Juan PR 229 PM AST Mon Mar 2 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 214 PM AST Mon Mar 2 2026 * Breezy to windy conditions are expected across the islands through the rest of the week. Unsecured items could blow around. * Fresh to strong winds producing choppy to rough seas, are expected to continue across the offshore Atlantic and Caribbean Waters, as well as in the local passages, where Small Craft Advisories are in effect. Inexperienced mariners should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions. * A moderate risk of rip currents will persist through late Tuesday across most of the local beaches. A high rip current risk is forecast by early Wednesday for the northern and eastern beaches of the islands as a northeast to easterly swell arrives and breezy to windy conditions persist. * Hazy skies are likely through Tuesday due to low concentrations of Saharan Dust filtering into the region. && .Short Term(This evening through Wednesday)... Issued at 214 PM AST Mon Mar 2 2026 For the rest of the short-term period, the primary weather feature for Puerto Rico will be breezy to windy conditions driven by a tight pressure gradient from a broad surface high over the central Atlantic. These elevated winds, between 15 and 25 knots at the 925 mb level, will continue from the east-southeast before backing to a more easterly direction by late Tuesday and to an east- northeasterly direction by late Wednesday. The prevailing winds will continuously steer intervals of patchy moisture and drier air toward the islands. While fast-moving showers are expected across the region, favoring the windward areas of the islands during the night/early morning hours, brief afternoon showers could still develop over western Puerto Rico. The overall moisture content will remain relatively shallow during this period, with precipitable water (PWAT) values fluctuating between 1.10 and 1.70 inches as moisture patches move through the area. Consistent with recent TJSJ upper air soundings showing substantial dry air in the mid-to-upper levels, the forecast soundings indicate that most of the available moisture will remain confined below the 850 mb level. Furthermore, relatively warm temperatures at the 500 mb level are expected to cap the atmosphere and limit the vertical development of any showers. Therefore, flood concerns are not anticipated from the expected weather conditions. The low concentrations of Saharan Dust are forecast to persist over the region on Tuesday before gradually decreasing late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. && .Long Term(Thursday through next Sunday)... Issued at 214 PM AST Mon Mar 2 2026 Over the long term, a strong high-pressure system will develop over the western Atlantic, then shift and become anchored in the north- central Atlantic. This will maintain a prevailing northeasterly wind flow and a tight pressure gradient throughout the forecast period. As a result, breezy to windy conditions will be a primary hazard, with wind risk levels fluctuating between limited and elevated, particularly along the coastal areas of the islands. Residents are advised to secure loose outdoor objects, as strong winds may displace or damage them. Also, windy conditions will lead to choppy to rough seas and life-threatening rip currents. The latest model guidance indicates that moisture levels will remain fragmented and variable on Thursday, fluctuating between near- seasonal and slightly above-normal values based on climatological data, as patches of moisture move within the trade wind flow. Precipitable water values are forecast to range between 1.30 and 1.65 inches. This pattern will support frequent passing showers, especially during the overnight and morning hours across windward areas, followed by afternoon convection over the interior and western Puerto Rico each day. By Friday, moisture levels are expected to stabilize as moisture moves in from the northeast, potentially increasing the frequency or intensity of showers. Although strong winds should limit rainfall accumulation and reduce flood potential, current data suggests a limited flood threat for eastern Puerto Rico in the mornings and for western Puerto Rico in the afternoons. Showers may lead to ponding in areas with poor drainage. Across the U.S. Virgin Islands, mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies are expected, with passing showers primarily occurring during the nighttime and early morning hours. Winds will also remain the primary hazard throughout the long-term period across the islands. The temperature outlook indicates near-average temperatures for the duration of the period. Daytime maximum temperatures are expected to range from the low to mid-80s at lower elevations and from the mid- 70s at higher elevations. Overnight lows are expected to range from the 70s to the 60s, respectively. In summary, breezy to windy conditions, variable moisture levels, and frequent passing showers are expected throughout the forecast period, with localized flooding risks in some areas. The main hazards will be focused on winds, marine, and beach conditions, including rough seas and hazardous coastal conditions. Residents and visitors should continue to monitor the forecast for updates. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 214 PM AST Mon Mar 2 2026 Mainly VFR conditions are expected to prevail across all terminals during the next 24 hours. However, passing trade wind showers are expected to move at times across the USVI terminals and TJSJ/TJPS, particularly during the evening hours. Winds will continue E-ESE at 15-20 kt with stronger gusts, decreasing to 12-16 kt overnight. && .MARINE... Issued at 214 PM AST Mon Mar 2 2026 Mariners can expect fresh to locally strong (20-25 kt) east- southeast winds, which are forecast to shift and become east- northeasterly by midweek as a new surface high pressure builds over the Central Atlantic. These sustained winds will generate choppy to rough seas across the regional waters, especially within the Atlantic and Caribbean offshore waters and the local passages. Due to the expected hazardous marine conditions, Small Craft Advisories (SCAs) are in effect for all offshore waters and both Anegada and Mona Passage due to seas up to 8 feet, and the expected 20-25 kt winds. Additionally, the coastal waters are expected to be included in the SCA in the upcoming days. Inexperienced mariners should avoid navigating in these hazardous conditions. && .BEACH FORECAST... Issued at 214 PM AST Mon Mar 2 2026 A moderate risk of life-threatening rip currents will persist across most local beaches to start the workweek, with the exception of Puerto Rico`s west coast. However, coastal conditions are expected to deteriorate further by Wednesday. Confused seas driven by the strong trade winds, combined with the arrival of a northeast to easterly wind swell, will likely elevate the threat to a high risk of rip currents for the northern and eastern beaches of the islands, through the end of the week. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 214 PM AST Mon Mar 2 2026 Latest observations from Cabo Rojo indicate that conditions are approaching Red Flag Conditions, with RH dropping to 53%, with winds up 19 mph, and the KBDI was at 652. Fire and emergency officials should be aware that weather conditions are becoming more conducive for the ignition and spread of wildfires. Similar conditions are expected through the workweek. && .SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PR...None. VI...None. AM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM AST Thursday for AMZ711-723-733- 741. && $$