AFDSJU Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Juan PR 437 AM AST Sat Feb 7 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 420 AM AST Sat Feb 7 2026 * Wind shift and moisture increase: A frontal boundary will promote a westerly to northwesterly wind flow, bringing a marked increase in moisture and more frequent showers from this afternoon through Sunday. * Primary hazard window tonightearly Sunday: Enhanced moisture convergence will raise the flooding risk to elevated levels across northern Puerto Rico. Expect ponding on roads and poorly drained areas, localized urban and small-stream flooding, and a low chance of isolated flash flooding. * Showery conditions will expand across the US Virgin Islands and eastern/northern PR on Sunday, with a limited flooding risk. * Pulses of northeasterly swell will maintain hazardous coastal conditions for beachgoers through the weekend; however, another, stronger long-period northerly swell will further deteriorate marine and coastal conditions late this weekend into early next week. && .Short Term(Today through Monday)... Issued at 420 AM AST Sat Feb 7 2026 Calm weather conditions prevailed overnight under mostly clear skies over Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands. The risk of rip currents along PR`s Atlantic Coastline remains high, while it is still moderate for the USVI`s north-facing beaches. The winds were mainly calm to light and variable, although a westerly component was present. Nighttime radiational cooling kept temperatures in the low-60s or even lower in the mountains of PR and in the low to mid-70s or upper 60s along the coast of PR and the USVI. The approaching frontal boundary will cause winds to veer from a weak westerly flow this morning to a north-northwesterly direction by this afternoon into the evening, eventually turning northerly on Sunday. Although a drier air mass will limit rain activity during the morning, this shift will drive a significant increase in moisture across the region from this afternoon into Sunday, associated with the arrival of this frontal boundary. Therefore, expect showery weather across the PR from this afternoon onward. Tonight/Early Sunday morning: This is the primary window for weather hazards. Increased moisture convergence will elevate the flooding risk to elevated levels for PR`s northern half. Residents in these areas should expect ponding of water in poorly drained areas, localized urban and small-stream flooding, without ruling out isolated flash flooding. Sunday: The pattern becomes wetter across the US Virgin Islands and eastern and northern PR as the frontal boundary lingers. Despite increased shower activity in the USVI, we have a limited risk of flooding in these areas, which means we can expect ponding in poorly drained areas and isolated urban flooding. However, we encourage residents and visitors to monitor weather updates in case we need to raise the flood risk. By Monday, the frontal boundary will remain in the vicinity, maintaining cloudy skies and showery conditions across the local islands. However, as drier air begins to advect behind the front, the risk of significant additional rainfall accumulation is low. This pattern will change as we approach next week; thus, monitor your official weather forecast for further updates. && .Long Term(Tuesday through Friday)... Issued at 420 AM AST Sat Feb 7 2026 A departing frontal boundary and building high pressure over the western Atlantic will promote strengthening north-to-northeasterly winds through Wednesday as the local pressure gradient tightens. Current precipitable water (PWAT) analysis suggests moisture levels will drop slightly below climatological normals (0.80 to 1.10 inches) during this period. Consequently, brief passing showers are expected across eastern and northern Puerto Rico, Culebra, Vieques, and the U.S. Virgin Islands, while afternoon convection driven by daytime heating and local effects may develop over southern and southwestern Puerto Rico. From Wednesday onward, the high-pressure system will shift into the central and eastern Atlantic, veering winds from the east on Wednesday and from the southeast on Thursday and Friday. This shift will pull the remnants of a stationary frontal boundary northward from the Caribbean. As a result, moisture levels will rise significantly (with PWAT values exceeding the climatological normal of approximately 1.50 inches), increasing the potential for widespread shower activity across Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. By the end of the week, weather patterns will move into more typical conditions, characterized by trade wind showers and moisture driven by persistent southeasterly flow. Residents and visitors are advised to monitor local weather updates and plan accordingly. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 420 AM AST Sat Feb 7 2026 VFR conditions will prevail this morning and early afternoon. Then, a frontal boundary will bring SHRA/-SHRA across the local flying area, creating MVFR or even IFR conditions as this activity move over the local terminals from the west. Winds will continue calm to light/VRB thru 07/13z, then will be mainly from the W-WNW, turning more N by late this evening, with speeds at 5 to 15 kt, but locally higher near SHRA. BKN to OVC from FL020-FL060 is possible btwn 07/18-0806 across W/N PR and possibly over the USVI. && .MARINE... Issued at 420 AM AST Sat Feb 7 2026 A cold front is approaching, leading to light to gentle west to northwesterly winds that will veer from the north. By tonight and into Sunday, these winds are expected to become moderate to fresh as a frontal boundary moves in from the northwest. Additionally, shower activity will increase. Two new swells are expected to spread across the Atlantic waters and passages, the first one on today, and a larger, long-period northwesterly swell on Monday. This will keep hazardous seas across most local waters through at least midweek next week. Small Craft Advisory are in effect from this afternoon across the offshore Atlantic waters, spreading to the rest of the coastal Atlantic Waters and Mona Passage by this evening. && .BEACH FORECAST... Issued at 420 AM AST Sat Feb 7 2026 Pulses of long period north-northwest swells will increase the threat of life-threatening rip currents along the west, north, and eastern beaches of the islands through at least midweek next week. High surf conditions and minor coastal flooding are likely on Monday and Tuesday, as seas build between 8 and 12 feet around 13 to 15 seconds. A High Rip Current Risk is in effect through the weekend for the northern beaches of PR, spreading to the northern USVI and Culebra from Sunday onward. High surf and coastal flood advisories will likely be issued in the upcoming days. Beachgoers are urged to continue monitoring forecast updates and heed all local advisories, warnings, and guidance from lifeguards and local officials as conditions deteriorate. && .SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PR...High Rip Current Risk through Monday afternoon for PRZ001-002- 005-008. High Rip Current Risk from this evening through Monday afternoon for PRZ010. High Rip Current Risk from Sunday morning through Monday afternoon for PRZ012. VI...High Rip Current Risk from Sunday morning through Monday afternoon for VIZ001. AM...Small Craft Advisory from noon today to noon AST Sunday for AMZ711. Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM Sunday to midnight AST Monday night for AMZ711. Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to noon AST Sunday for AMZ712-741-742. Small Craft Advisory from midnight Sunday night to midnight AST Monday night for AMZ712-716-741-742. && $$