AFDSJU Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Juan PR 214 PM AST Tue Feb 24 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 153 PM AST Tue Feb 24 2026 * Hazardous seas, life-threatening rip currents and high surf conditions are expected from this evening through at least Friday along northern beaches of the islands. Continue to monitor the forecast in the coming days and follow flag warnings. * Moderate to heavy showers expected to continue for the rest of the afternoon, with an elevated flooding threat over the mountain ranges of Puerto Rico. * Across the USVI, weather conditions will gradually improve tonight, with a drying trend on Wednesday. * Minor concentrations of Saharan dust are expected to filter late tonight. && .Short Term(This evening through Thursday)... Issued at 153 PM AST Tue Feb 24 2026 Weather conditions were relatively calm during the morning hours, with a few showers developing over the regional waters that remained offshore. Overall, mostly clear to partly cloudy skies prevailed. For the rest of the day, the forecast remains on track. GOES-19 imagery shows an area of abundant tropical moisture over the Caribbean waters being advected northward by southerly winds as a pre-frontal trough approaches from the northwest. Most of the activity is expected through the rest of the afternoon as increased moisture and an unsettled weather pattern combine with sea breeze convergence and surface heating, with the latter fueling convection across the area. Therefore, expect shower and thunderstorm activity to persist through the evening hours. Additionally, steering winds are light due to the presence of a col northwest of the area, which will move eastward through tonight. The 24/12Z TJSJ sounding indicates a surface to 3 km mean wind of 5 knots. These light steering winds will result in slow-moving showers and thunderstorms, increasing rainfall accumulation. They will also lead to erratic storm movements as showers and thunderstorms drift toward the coast and redevelop along outflow boundaries. Therefore, expect a limited to elevated flood threat across Puerto Rico, with the highest risk over interior areas and urban locations where excessive runoff may exacerbate flooding. However, activity should gradually diminish overnight with the loss of daytime heating. Light steering flow early in the evening may still allow for brief ponding of water in areas that receive persistent showers, but the overall flooding threat is expected to decrease after sunset. By Wednesday, a drier air mass filtering in will begin to overspread the region. Although precipitable water values will remain near climatological levels, mid-level drying and traces of Saharan dust will promote more stable conditions, particularly during the morning hours. By the afternoon, convection should be limited to isolated to scattered showers, favoring western Puerto Rico due to local effects and daytime heating. Any rainfall accumulations are expected to be localized and generally light, resulting in a reduced flood threat compared to today. Additionally, surface high pressure over the central Atlantic will strengthen, tightening the pressure gradient and promoting moderate to locally fresh easterly winds. By Thursday, these stronger trades will result in faster-moving showers embedded within the flow, mainly affecting windward coastal areas during the overnight and morning hours. Afternoon convection across the interior and western sections of Puerto Rico will remain possible but should be less widespread due to the drier mid-level air. Overall, flooding concerns should remain limited given the progressive nature of the showers and decreasing moisture content, with precipitable water values trending near to below climatological normals. Temperatures will remain seasonable through the period. && .Long Term(Friday through next Monday)... Issued at 153 PM AST Tue Feb 24 2026 A broad surface high pressure system across the Central Atlantic will be the dominant weather feature for most of the period across the forecast area. This system will promote moderate to locally fresh easterly winds on Friday. Under this wind pattern, patches of shallow moisture with precipitable water values from 1.4 to 1.7 inches will move across the islands, enhancing cloudiness and supporting a showery pattern, especially across the U.S. Virgin Islands and eastern Puerto Rico during the morning hours. On Saturday, a slight variation in the wind pattern is forecast, with winds veering as the surface high interacts with an induced pre- frontal trough over the western Atlantic and its associated frontal boundary. This interaction will maintain moderate southeasterly winds from Saturday through Monday. Therefore, the islands can expect persistent patches of shallow but sufficient moisture to sustain a variable and showery weather pattern during this period. Morning showers are expected across portions of the U.S. Virgin Islands, followed by afternoon convection, particularly across the northwestern quadrant of Puerto Rico and the San Juan metropolitan area, aided by showers developing near the El Yunque region in streamers. Although showers may be locally significant, especially in the afternoon, widespread flooding is not anticipated. Minor flooding may occur in low-lying and urban areas. Breezy conditions are also expected, as suggested by 925 mb winds ranging between 18 and 20 knots. By Tuesday, an increase in surface moisture is forecast as a frontal boundary approaches north of the islands, with associated cloudiness and moisture slightly above the climatological normals reaching the northern sections of Puerto Rico. The approach of this system will promote a more pronounced easterly wind pattern across the region. As a result, showers are expected across eastern Puerto Rico and along the north and northeast coasts. Residents and visitors are urged to stay tuned for further updates. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 153 PM AST Tue Feb 24 2026 Mainly VFR conditions expected across all terminals through the period. However, SHRA/VCTS will continue across portions of PR this afternoon, with VCTS at TJPS/TJBQ with brief MVFR/IFR possible in heavier TSRA, mainly at TJBQ. Mtn obscurations possible this afternoon due to SHRA/TSRA. Activity will diminish aft 24/23Z, though VCSH may persist at times. ESE winds 10-12 kt with higher gusts through the afternoon, becoming lighter and variable overnight. Sea breeze variations expected. && .MARINE... Issued at 153 PM AST Tue Feb 24 2026 The proximity of a pre-frontal trough associated with a frontal boundary north of the Hispaniola will promote light and variable winds for the rest of the day. Shower activity and isolated thunderstorms will continue this afternoon through tonight, small craft should exercise caution. A long-period north-northwesterly swell is expected to spread across the Atlantic waters and passages from late tonight into Wednesday morning, building seas between 6 and 9 feet. Hazardous seas are expected to linger through Friday, and Small Craft Advisories are in effect. Moderate to fresh trades will return during the second part of the workweek, as surface high pressure builds over the Central Atlantic. && .BEACH FORECAST... Issued at 153 PM AST Tue Feb 24 2026 NDBC buoys are currently reporting an increase in wave height and period, as a long-period north-northwesterly swell spreads across Atlantic waters. Based on these observations and the latest model guidance, the forecast has been adjusted, as the swell is expected to arrive later this evening and spread across the local Atlantic waters and passages through at least Friday. A Rip Current Statement is in effect from 6 PM AST today, as life- threatening rip currents are expected along northern exposed beaches of Puerto Rico, including Culebra, and St. Thomas and St. John in the U.S. Virgin Islands. Theres a high chance of High Surf Conditions tomorrow, Wednesday, leading to large breaking waves and minor beach erosion, hazardous for beachgoers. Beach conditions will start to improve by the weekend as the swell gradually subsides. For safety, always check local conditions before swimming. Beachgoers and inexperienced surfers are urged to avoid beaches exposed to the northerly swell. Remember to swim near a lifeguard, never swim alone, and, if caught in a rip current, remain calm, do not exhaust yourself, and stay afloat while waiting for help. && .SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PR...High Rip Current Risk from 6 PM AST this evening through Thursday afternoon for PRZ001-002-005-008-010. High Surf Advisory from 6 AM Wednesday to 6 PM AST Thursday for PRZ001-002-005-008-010. VI...None. AM...Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM Wednesday to noon AST Friday for AMZ711-712-716-723-741-742. && $$