AFDSJU Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Juan PR 157 PM AST Sat Feb 21 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 157 PM AST Sat Feb 21 2026 * Moderate risk of life-threatening rip currents will continue tonight and Sunday along the north and east-facing beaches of Puerto Rico, including Culebra and Vieques, as well as St. Thomas, St. John, adjacent islands, and St. Croix. * Near to above normal temperatures will persist through early next week, with warm days and seasonably mild nights. * East to southeast winds will bring passing showers to windward areas through Monday, with isolated afternoon showers possible across interior and western Puerto Rico. * Across the U.S. Virgin Islands, breezy, sunny to partly cloudy skies, and passing showers the rest of today and Sunday. && .Short Term(This evening through Monday)... Issued at 157 PM AST Sat Feb 21 2026 Mostly clear skies prevailed today across Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands, with maximum temperatures reaching the mid- to upper 80s and heat indices climbing into the mid-90s in some lower- elevation areas. East to east-southeast winds between 10 and 20 mph, with higher gusts and localized sea breeze variations, supported a few brief showers across the local waters, the USVI, and windward locations in PR earlier in the day. The main hazard tonight and through Sunday remains the moderate risk of life-threatening rip currents. Thus, life-threatening rip currents are possible along the north and east-facing beaches of Puerto Rico, including Culebra and Vieques, as well as across St. Thomas, St. John, adjacent islands, and St. Croix. Although wave energy is gradually subsiding compared to previous days, the persistent trade wind flow and seas will maintain hazardous surf conditions, particularly for inexperienced swimmers and those entering the water near piers, jetties, and reef gaps. Moderate to locally fresh east-to-east-southeast winds, shifting to southeasterly by Monday, will continue as a surface high-pressure system over the central Atlantic sustains the regional pressure gradient. This pattern will continue to advect shallow moisture patches across the islands, resulting in passing trade wind showers, mainly during the overnight and morning hours over windward areas. During the afternoon, local effects and sea breeze convergence may trigger isolated to scattered showers across interior and western Puerto Rico. Most rainfall activity is expected to be brief and light to moderate in intensity. A mid- to upper-level ridge will dominate the short-term pattern, promoting relatively stable conditions and limiting widespread or organized convection. Near to above normal temperatures will persist through the next several days. Daytime highs will range from the upper 80s to near 90 degrees across lower elevations and urban areas, while higher elevations remain in the mid 70s. Overnight lows will generally fall into the upper 50s to low 60s in the mountains and into the low to mid 70s along coastal areas. Mostly clear skies overnight will allow for radiational cooling, supporting seasonably mild nighttime conditions despite the continued warm pattern. && .LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Saturday)... Issued at 205 AM AST Sat Feb 21 2026 Unstable conditions are expected at the beginning of the long- term period as a pre-frontal trough, associated with an approaching frontal boundary, moves northwest of the area and north of Hispaniola. Meanwhile, a broad high-pressure system over the Central Atlantic continues to promote a southeasterly wind flow across the region. Under these conditions, a weak pressure gradient resulting from this interaction will cause winds to become light and variable through at least Wednesday. Precipitable water content will remain above normal during this period, with values reaching 1.50 to 1.90 inches. This moist and unstable pattern will favor the development of afternoon convective activity across central and northwestern Puerto Rico. Temperatures at the 500 mb level will range between -7 to -8C; combined with instability aloft from an upper-level trough, this could enhance the potential for a few isolated thunderstorms. During this period, the risk of excessive rainfall remains limited, though ponding of water in urban and poor drainage areas and minor flooding may occur in the aforementioned areas. By Wednesday, winds are expected to shift from the east in response to a surface high pressure building over the western Atlantic. As this high migrates toward the central Atlantic, winds will gradually increase. From Thursday onward, a more stable weather pattern will return to the local area as the surface high strengthens over the Central Atlantic and a mid-to-upper level ridge establishes over the region. Therefore, passing showers carried by the trade winds are anticipated to affect windward portions of the U.S. Virgin Islands and eastern Puerto Rico during the early morning hours, followed by afternoon convection across the interior and western Puerto Rico. This pattern is expected to prevail through the end of the period. Temperatures at the 925 mb level will remain above climatological values each day due to the combination of available moisture and southeasterly wind flow. Highs are forecast to reach the mid-to- upper 80s in lower elevations and the upper 70s to low 80s across the higher elevations. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 157 PM AST Sat Feb 21 2026 VFR conds expected during the next forecast period. Brief VCSH are possible across TISX, TIST, TJSJ, TJBQ utl 21/23Z, then quiet conds tonight and Sunday morning. Aft 22/17Z, VCSH will be possible near TJSJ, TJBQ. Winds becoming lighter aft 21/23Z, then E to SE winds at around 13 to 16 kts with gusts up to 20 to 25 kts aft 22/14Z. && .MARINE... Issued at 132 PM AST Sat Feb 21 2026 A fading northerly swell will dissipate by late this evening, allowing seas to subside gradually. Surface high pressure over the central Atlantic will maintain moderate to locally fresh east to east-southeast winds across the regional waters through Sunday. Winds will gradually veer to the southeast and south on Monday and Tuesday ahead of an approaching frontal boundary. By midweek, the arrival of the front will increase shower activity, possibly leading to thunderstorms, and shift winds. In addition, a long- period northerly swell is expected to move into the Atlantic waters by the middle of next week, leading to deteriorating marine conditions and building seas. Mariners should monitor later forecasts for updates on increasing seas and changing weather conditions. && .BEACH FORECAST... Issued at 157 PM AST Sat Feb 21 2026 A High Rip Current Risk remains in effect for the north-facing beaches of St. Thomas, St. John, north-exposed beaches of Puerto Rico and Culebra until 6 pm AST this evening due to breaking waves up to 6 feet and higher at times. By tonight and Sunday, a moderate risk of rip currents is expected across most areas, expect southern central Puerto Rico. Similar conditions are forecast to prevail during the first part of the week. Another northerly swell will once again deteriorate coastal conditions by the middle part of next workweek, resulting in life-threathening rip currents along the northern coasts of the islands. Beachgoers are urged to stay out of these exposed waters, continue monitoring forecast updates, and follow all local advisories, warnings, and lifeguard and official guidance. For more specific location information, visit: weather.gov/beach/sju. && .SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PR...High Rip Current Risk until 6 PM AST this evening for PRZ001-002- 005-008-010-012. VI...High Rip Current Risk until 6 PM AST this evening for VIZ001. AM...None. && $$