AFDSJU Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Juan PR 318 PM AST Thu Feb 5 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 238 PM AST Thu Feb 5 2026 * Improving weather conditions are forecast from Friday into Saturday, with less cloud cover and more periods of sun. * Winds will shift from the south and southwest over the next two days, increasing the potential for slightly warmer daytime temperatures. * Hazardous coastal conditions will persist during the afternoon and night hours with breaking waves up to 10 feet in the north of Puerto Rico. * Another frontal boundary will move southward into the Caribbean, increasing the potential of cloudiness coverage and showers. && .Short Term(This evening through Saturday)... Issued at 238 PM AST Thu Feb 5 2026 During the morning and early afternoon hours, most of the region was covered by an extensive area of cloudiness. Early in the morning, an area of moisture and showers moved across eastern sections of Puerto Rico, resulting in light to moderate rainfall mainly affecting northeastern municipalities. Although showers were widespread, they were light enough to prevent minor flooding and hazardous driving conditions. Winds were from the east, veering to the southeast during the morning; by 10 AM, winds were predominantly from the southeast. By 12 PM, Doppler radar showed the development of shower activity across north-central areas, affecting municipalities near Arecibo. Daytime temperatures remained in the low to mid-80s across most coastal and urban areas. An interesting weather pattern will persist through the rest of the day and into the night. At the surface, a high-pressure system over the central Atlantic will continue to promote southeasterly winds across the region, allowing areas of cloudiness and moisture to enhance afternoon showers. Surface conditions will begin to change late tonight into Friday as a frontal boundary over the western Atlantic sinks southward into the Caribbean. Interaction between this boundary and the surface ridge will strengthen southerly winds, while a drier Caribbean airmass filters in, with precipitable water values ranging from 0.75 to 1.00 inches, limiting cloud development and shower coverage. Although conditions will generally remain unfavorable for widespread rainfall due to a lack of instability and warmer mid-level temperatures, afternoon convection is still expected across the interior and mountainous areas, with no significant rainfall threat. Weather conditions are forecast to deteriorate again on Saturday night as moisture associated with the frontal boundary increases cloudiness and showers. && .Long Term(Sunday through next Wednesday)... Issued at 238 PM AST Thu Feb 5 2026 The long-term period will begin with the presence of a deep polar trough and its associated frontal boundary, which will likely increase rain chances and elevate the flood risk as it crosses the region. Current meteorological models indicate that the front will move through the area on Sunday. Precipitable water values are expected to increase to near-seasonal to above-normal levels. At this time, the potential for ponding of water on roads and in poorly drained areas will increase on Sunday across Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. From Sunday through midweek, winds are forecast to increase and shift from the north-northeast as a strong high-pressure system builds across the western Atlantic, tightening the pressure gradient over the region. By early next week, moisture levels are expected to remain near seasonal norms, then increase slightly from Tuesday through Wednesday as the high shifts farther east into the Atlantic and lifts the remnant frontal boundary, allowing enhanced moisture convergence over the area. Limited flood potential for portions of Puerto Rico and also the USVI. Additionally, mid- to upper-level conditions are expected to become more dynamically favorable as another trough moves across the region. By Thursday, more typical conditions are expected, driven by available moisture and local effects under a persistent northeasterly wind flow associated with the high-pressure system moving eastward across the central to eastern Atlantic. A mid-level ridge will also begin to establish, bringing increased stability to the region. Temperature guidance indicates seasonal to below-normal temperatures, with the coolest conditions expected from Sunday through Tuesday. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 238 PM AST Thu Feb 5 2026 VFR conditions will persist across most TAF sites. However, lower ceilings associated with cloudiness across the area and SHRA may result in brief MVFR conditions. Winds will remain from the SE, veering to the S and becoming light around 06/08Z, then increasing to around 10 knots by 06/14Z. VCSH to SHRA are expected from 06/0006/12Z across TIST, TISX, and TJSJ. Lower VIS and CIGs are forecast for TJPS around 06/16Z as showers move near the mountainous areas. && .MARINE... Issued at 238 PM AST Thu Feb 5 2026 A high pressure system over the central North Atlantic will promote moderate southeasterly winds tonight, gradually veering more from the south by Friday. A dissipating long-period north-northwesterly swell will maintain hazardous conditions for small craft across the northern coastal waters of Puerto Rico for the rest of the night and into the night hours. Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions. Gentle to moderate winds are expected on Friday and Saturday, then increasing by Sunday in the wake of a frontal boundary approaching from the northwest, along with increased rain potential. A long-period northerly swell will arrive tomorrow. Another stronger, long-period northerly swell will likely arrive early next week, deteriorating marine conditions and prompting marine hazards again. && .BEACH FORECAST... Issued at 238 PM AST Thu Feb 5 2026 Energy from a dissipating, long-period northerly to north to northwesterly swell will continue to reach northern areas this afternoon and tonight, resulting in hazardous swimming conditions across Atlantic exposed beaches. The High Surf Advisory remains in effect for the northwest, east, and north-facing coastlines of Puerto Rico, Culebra, and the northern U.S. Virgin Islands through midnight tonight, with breaking waves of around 9 to 10 feet. A High Surf Advisory means that high surf will affect beaches in the advisory area, producing localized beach erosion and dangerous swimming conditions. Additional pulses of energy will likely maintain a high risk of rip currents through at least next Wednesday. A long-period northerly swell will arrive tomorrow. Another stronger, long-period northerly swell will likely arrive early next week, once again deteriorating coastal conditions and prompting additional High Surf Advisories. The public is urged to stay out of the water and continue monitoring official forecasts for updates. && .SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PR...High Rip Current Risk through late Friday night for PRZ001-002- 005-008. High Surf Advisory until midnight AST tonight for PRZ001-002-005- 008. High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for PRZ010-012. VI...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for VIZ001. AM...Small Craft Advisory until midnight AST tonight for AMZ711. && $$