AFDSJU Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Juan PR 256 PM AST Wed Feb 4 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 255 PM AST Wed Feb 4 2026 * Hazardous marine and beach conditions persist along the Atlantic coast and north- and west-facing beaches of Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. Although swell energy is gradually diminishing, dangerous breaking waves and life-threatening rip currents continue, with a limited risk of coastal flooding in low- lying areas through this evening. * Marine and coastal conditions are expected to briefly improve on Friday. However, additional pulses of northerly swell will reach the region through the weekend, leading to renewed hazardous marine and surf conditions. * Another very strong northerly to northwesterly swell is expected early next week, which may prolong or reintroduce hazardous marine conditions and very dangerous surf, including the potential for high surf and coastal flooding along exposed coastlines. * Another frontal boundary is expected to reach the islands this weekend, increasing cloudiness, showery weather, and gusty wind conditions once again. && .Short Term(This evening through Friday)... Issued at 255 PM AST Wed Feb 4 2026 Remnants of a frontal boundary that is now well east and southeast of the region along with up to breezy N-NE winds continued to promote a cloudy and showery cool advective pattern over the region. From midnight to noon, radar estimated rainfall accumulations registered the highest accumulations at north-central to the metro area to northeast PR. Light to locally moderate but persistent rainfall during the period left radar estimated accumulations over the northwestern to southeastern half of Puerto Rico, Culebra, eastern Vieques, eastern St. Croix and areas of St. Thomas and St. John. Showers have also begun developing over the interior to southern and western PR. Current satellite derived precipitable water (PWAT) values indicate 1.75 to 2 inches over the region as moisture related to the frontal boundary continues to be steered by the N-NE flow from a surface high over the southwestern Atlantic. This surface high will continue gradually moving eastward as the period progresses due to a frontal low moving out of east CONUS. As the high moves eastward the steering flow will veer (and decrease in speed) to become more easterly tonight, southeasterly tomorrow and southeasterly to southerly on Friday. PWAT values are forecast to remain around 1.6 to 1.9 inches on Thursday but decrease to around 1.3 inches on Friday, leading to lower rain chances and moisture remaining generally below 800 mb, as opposed to reaching around 550 mb tonight and tomorrow. A limited flooding risk will continue tonight and tomorrow, as showers over the eastern region continue tonight, as well as afternoon to evening showers over interior to southern and western PR, promote ponding of water over roads and poorly drained areas with a low chance of urban and small stream flooding. As winds veer, showers will still reach the eastern region with afternoon convection over interior to western PR. Reduced visibility due to patchy fog is also possible over the interior during the overnight to early morning hours. Official and unofficial stations have reported highs in the mid 70s to low 80s over lower elevations of western, northern and eastern Puerto Rico, up to the low 80s over the USVI, Vieques and Culebra and in the mid 80s to locally around 90 at the southwestern lower elevation areas of Puerto Rico. Stations are currently reporting temperatures in the upper 60s to mid 70s over interior. Lows are forecast in the upper 50s to low 60s over the interior and in the low to mid 70s at lower elevations of PR and the USVI. 925 mb temperatures are forecast to increase to normal and above normal values as the period progresses. && .Long Term(Saturday through next Tuesday)... Issued at 411 AM AST Wed Feb 4 2026 Conditions from next weekend into early next week will be influenced by the arrival of another deep polar trough and its associated frontal boundary, which will likely increase rain chances and elevate the flood risk. Current guidance suggests the front will pass on Saturday, with the trough lingering through the weekend and increasing moisture values to above-normal levels near 1.8 inches. At this time, the flood risk on Saturday remains from limited to elevated, then limited on Sunday. Low-level winds are expected to remain very light on Saturday, which could result in slow moving showers and localized ponding. From Sunday through midweek, winds are forecast to increase and turn from the north- northeast as a strong high-pressure system builds across the western Atlantic, tightening the pressure gradient across the region. Areas exposed to northerly and northeasterly flow will have the highest rain chances as showers are advected inland. By early next week, moisture levels are expected to remain near seasonal norms, then slightly increase from Tuesday through Wednesday as the high shifts farther east into the Atlantic and lifts the remnant frontal boundary, allowing enhanced moisture convergence over the region. Additionally, mid to upper-level are expected to become more dynamically favorable as an upper level trough swings across the area. Temperature guidance indicates seasonal to below normal temperatures, with the coolest conditions expected on Sunday. Please continue to monitor forecast updates and remain informed. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 255 PM AST Wed Feb 4 2026 SHRA/-SHRA will continue across the region tonight and can promote brief MVFR conditions. Winds are now ENE and will continue veering tonight, becoming E by 05/03z and SE by 05/13Z. Winds will continue at 10 to 20 kts, with higher gusts through 04/23Z, decreasing thereafter as they veer and picking up again by 05/13z at around 15 kts. BR possible at terminals with patchy FG over areas of the interior. BKN/OVC cigs FL020FL070 expected at times. && .MARINE... Issued at 255 PM AST Wed Feb 4 2026 Offshore and nearshore buoy observations indicate that northerly swell energy is gradually diminishing across the Atlantic waters this afternoon. As a result, hazardous marine conditions will slowly improve, with seas subsiding below advisory levels in some areas later tonight into Friday. However, Small Craft Advisories will remain in effect through late tonight as residual swell and moderate to fresh northerly winds continue to produce hazardous conditions for small craft. Marine conditions are expected to improve on Friday as seas temporarily subside and winds weaken. This will likely be the only period of relative improvement. Pulses of northerly swell will continue to reach the Atlantic waters through the weekend, causing marine conditions to once again become hazardous at times, particularly across the offshore Atlantic waters. Looking ahead, another very strong northerly to northwesterly swell is forecast to arrive early next week. This swell will likely result in widespread hazardous marine conditions and the reissuance of Small Craft Advisories across most of the regional Atlantic waters. && .BEACH FORECAST... Issued at 255 PM AST Wed Feb 4 2026 Offshore and nearshore buoy data show a gradual decrease in northerly swell energy this afternoon. Due to this diminishing swell, the Coastal Flood Advisory is expected to expire this evening as the threat of coastal flooding and significant beach erosion decreases. Despite the improving trend, a High Surf Advisory will persist through at least late tonight as hazardous breaking waves and strong nearshore currents continue. A high risk of rip currents will remain in effect for most of the period, posing life-threatening swimming conditions. The rip current risk is expected to briefly decrease on Friday as hazardous surf subsides. Conditions will deteriorate again over the weekend as additional pulses of northerly swell reach the Atlantic coast, leading to renewed hazardous surf and elevated rip current risk. Early next week, a very strong northerly to northwesterly swell is expected to arrive, likely resulting in very hazardous coastal conditions, including the potential for High Surf Advisories and the reissuance of a Coastal Flood Advisory. For localized and updated rip current information, visit weather.gov/beach/sju. && .SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PR...Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 PM AST this evening for PRZ001- 002-005-008-010>012. High Rip Current Risk through Thursday afternoon for PRZ001-002- 005-008-010-012. High Surf Advisory until 6 AM AST Thursday for PRZ001-002-005- 008-010-012. High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for PRZ011-013. High Surf Advisory until 6 PM AST this evening for PRZ011. VI...Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 PM AST this evening for VIZ001. High Rip Current Risk through Thursday afternoon for VIZ001. High Surf Advisory until 6 AM AST Thursday for VIZ001. High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for VIZ002. AM...Small Craft Advisory until noon AST Thursday for AMZ711-712-716. Small Craft Advisory until midnight AST tonight for AMZ723-726- 733-735-741-742-745. && $$