AFDSJU Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Juan PR 234 AM AST Sun Mar 15 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 203 AM AST Sun Mar 15 2026 * Limited ponding of water on roadways and poorly drained areas is anticipated today, particularly over eastern and western PR. * Breezy to windy conditions from today into early next week will create hazardous marine and coastal conditions across Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands. Small Craft Advisories and a High Risk of Rip Currents are in effect for many local waters and beaches. * Warmer temperatures are forecast by early next week with limited rainfall potential. && .Short Term(Today through Tuesday)... Issued at 203 AM AST Sun Mar 15 2026 Overnight, partly cloudy skies prevailed across Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. Passing showers affected mainly eastern and northern Puerto Rico, with radar-estimated rainfall totals between 0.10 and 0.30 inches. Winds remained light and variable, while temperatures stayed in the 70s across coastal areas and 60s across higher elevations. Today (Sunday), a trade-wind perturbation will move across the region, leading to a gradual increase in wind speeds and moisture. This pattern will promote periods of passing showers across windward areas, particularly eastern Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands, during the early morning and afternoon hours. A limited flooding risk is anticipated for today, meaning ponding of water on roads and in poorly drained areas is possible. Rainfall amounts are expected to remain light to moderate. Breezy to locally windy conditions will develop, especially across the U.S. Virgin Islands and coastal areas of Puerto Rico. By Sunday evening, a drier air mass will move into the region, leading to a decrease in shower activity overnight. This drier air mass will reduce the overall flooding potential across the islands, though brief passing showers may still occur Monday. By Tuesday, a more typical seasonal pattern will prevail. Expect a mix of sunshine and brief passing showers, mainly affecting windward areas during the night and morning hours, followed by isolated afternoon activity across western interior sections. && .Long Term(Wednesday through Sunday)... Issued at 203 AM AST Sun Mar 15 2026 A broad surface high pressure system over the central Atlantic will dominate the regional pattern early in the period. This will maintain easterly trade winds on Wednesday, gradually veering to east-southeasterly and south-southeasterly by Saturday as the pressure gradient relaxes with a frontal boundary approaching from the northwest. A mid-level ridge will persist through Friday before being displaced southeastward by a broad trough dipping into the northern Caribbean late in the period. Moisture will remain mostly shallow through midweek, generally below 700 mb, briefly extending near 650 mb Thursday afternoon into the night before gradually deepening toward the weekend. As a result, conditions will transition from relatively drier-than-normal on Wednesday to more variable moisture Thursday and Friday, with a gradual increase in shower activity by Saturday. Temperatures will remain within typical seasonal ranges, with slightly warmer afternoons locally and a gradual warming trend into the weekend likely responding to the increasing southerly wind component. Hazards through most of the period will be mainly wind-driven. Breezy to occasionally windy conditions early in the period may create an elevated wind risk across exposed and coastal areas and will promote fast-moving trade wind showers across windward sectors, particularly overnight and during the morning hours. These showers may occasionally produce brief downpours but will generally move quickly across the area. As winds weaken and moisture deepens toward the weekend, hazards may gradually shift toward a slightly higher risk of locally heavier showers, which could increase the potential for excessive rainfall and localized ponding in urban and poorly drained areas. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 203 AM AST Sun Mar 15 2026 All TAF sites should experience VFR condt. VCSH possible at TJSJ, TIST, and TJBQ through 15/14Z. After 15/17Z VCSH will affect TJBQ and TJSJ. E winds gradually increasing after 15/14Z btwn 13-20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt and sea breeze variations aft 15/13Z. && .MARINE... Issued at 203 AM AST Sun Mar 15 2026 Surface high pressure building over the western and central Atlantic will result in an increasing pressure gradient, leading to moderate to locally fresh easterly winds that will gradually strengthen today. These wind-driven seas will result in choppy to rough conditions across all exposed local waters for the latter part of the week. From Monday through midweek, fresh to strong easterly winds will make additional areas of the regional waters hazardous, with seas building to 7 to 9 feet and winds up to 25 knots and higher gusts. Small Craft Advisories are currently in effect for the offshore Atlantic waters and the Mona Passage, starting Sunday morning, with Advisories spreading to coastal areas and the Anegada Passage by Sunday evening. Small craft operators should stay tuned for further updates, as additional Small Craft Advisories may be required. && .BEACH FORECAST... Issued at 203 AM AST Sun Mar 15 2026 The beach forecast remains on track. As mentioned in the marine section, strengthening winds today are expected to generate choppy to rough seas across the regional waters, leading to breaking waves around 6 feet and a high potential of rip currents along the surf zone. As a result, a Rip Current Statement has been issued for northern and eastern beaches of Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra, and the U.S. Virgin Islands through Monday night. Residents and visitors are urged to monitor conditions and heed the advice on the flag systems. Beachgoers should remain alert to changing coastal conditions and continue monitoring the latest updates, as hazardous beach conditions will likely persist over the next few days, and an extension of the Rip Current Statement may be required. Although a moderate risk continues elsewhere, beachgoers should exercise caution, as life-threatening rip currents remain possible along the surf zone. For additional information, please visit: weather.gov/beach/sju. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 203 AM AST Sun Mar 15 2026 The fire weather threat is LOW, but localized higher fire weather conditions can not be ruled out today. Winds will gradually become stronger but due to previous rains, RH values remain near to above criteria. Regardless, we encourage partners to continue monitoring conditions for any changes in the forecast later today. && .SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PR...High Rip Current Risk from 6 AM AST this morning through late Monday night for PRZ001>003-005-008-012-013. VI...High Rip Current Risk from 6 AM AST this morning through late Monday night for VIZ001-002. AM...Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM this morning to 2 AM AST Wednesday for AMZ711-723. Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM Monday to 2 AM AST Wednesday for AMZ712-735. Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 2 AM AST Wednesday for AMZ716-726-733-741. && $$