AFDSJU Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Juan PR 300 AM AST Wed Feb 11 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 300 AM AST Wed Feb 11 2026 * High surf will continue across northern exposed coastlines today, with localized beach erosion possible. Life-threatening rip currents will persist through Friday. * Hazardous seas will continue through late tonight, creating dangerous conditions for mariners and small craft, with gradual improvement expected from Thursday onward. * Breezy to locally windy conditions will persist today, particularly across coastal and exposed areas, where unsecured items may be blown around. * Cooler-than-normal temperatures will persist today, followed by a gradual warming trend beginning tonight and continuing into Thursday and beyond, along with increasing rain potential late in the week. && .Short Term(Today through Friday)... Issued at 300 AM AST Wed Feb 11 2026 An upper-level short-wave trough that moved across the region produced light showers and widespread cloudiness, with variable to occasionally overcast skies expected to linger into the morning as the feature departs. During this period, temperatures ranged from the low to mid 50s at night to the upper 70s to low 80s during the day, accompanied by breezy conditions with sustained NNENE winds of 1520 mph and occasional gusts around 3540 mph. In the wake of the trough, a weak mid-level ridge will build over the area, promoting subsidence, mid-level drying, and the redevelopment of the trade-wind inversion, leading to increasingly stable conditions. At the surface, a broad high shifting eastward into the central Atlantic will maintain breezy NE to ENE winds, gradually veering to easterly while weakening from a strong to moderate breeze through tonight. This evolution will support continued cooling early, followed by a slight warming trend as cooler air advection weakens. Drier air advection and subsidence will limit rainfall, with isolated, brief trade-wind showers mainly affecting eastern exposed coastal areas, and localized afternoon activity over far western Puerto Rico driven by sea- breeze and local effects, with no significant impacts expected. Patchy fog may develop late tonight across portions of the interior and higher terrain. Temperatures will remain near to slightly below normal, while winds remain the primary hazard, particularly along exposed coastal areas and higher elevations. Thursday into Friday, conditions will become increasingly unsettled as low-level flow veers to the southeast, allowing a band of deeper tropical moisture to return to the area ahead of a short-wave trough approaching and crossing the northeastern Caribbean Thursday night. PWAT values will rise to above or locally well-above normal, while cooling aloft and enhanced upper- level divergence will support increased shower activity, with occasionally heavy rainfall possible. On Thursday, activity will favor windward sectors, expanding during the afternoon across the interior and western to northwestern Puerto Rico, as well as downwind of the local islands and El Yunque, while abundant moisture and increased cloud cover will persist into early Friday as the moisture band lifts northwestward, supporting lingering morning showers. As drier air closer to seasonal or locally below- normal PWAT values moves in from Friday afternoon into Friday night, shower coverage will gradually decrease, while southeasterly winds persist through Friday before backing to easterly and weakening further Friday night. A gradual warming trend will continue, although cloud cover and lingering moisture may still support cooler-feeling conditions early Thursday. The primary hazard through this period will be localized excessive rainfall, with a limited risk of urban and poor-drainage flooding. && .Long Term(Saturday through Wednesday)... Issued at 300 AM AST Wed Feb 11 2026 The inherited forecast remains on track as a weak upper-level trough approaches the local islands from the northwest. At the surface, a high-pressure system over the central Atlantic will continue shifting eastward, promoting light to moderate southeasterly winds through Sunday. Winds will then veer to an easterly direction as another surface high builds over the western Atlantic and migrates toward the central Atlantic through the remainder of the period. During the upcoming workweek, a mid- to upper-level ridge is expected to establish across the region, fostering more stable conditions aloft. The latest precipitable water (PWAT) analysis supports this pattern, with values remaining within the seasonal climatological range of 1.20 to 1.55 inches. Under these conditions, trade-wind moisture will support brief passing morning showers across portions of eastern Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands, followed by afternoon convective development over central and western Puerto Rico. Given this setup, the flooding threat remains limited, particularly through the first half of the period. As a result, warm and humid conditions are expected to persist through the weekend and into early next week. We urge people to monitor the forecast for any changes. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 300 AM AST Wed Feb 11 2026 Mainly VFR conds expected at all TAF sites with persistent mid- to upper-lvl clds. NNE winds, veering thru the pd, will prevail at up to 15 kt with higher gusts, mainly at the most exposed USVI TAF sites, thru 14Z. Winds will increase again aft 13Z, becoming ENE at 1820 kt with higher gusts. VCSH psbl at windward TAF sites, with ptchy fog psbl over portions of the interior PR. VCSH covg incr aft 23Z, mainly across TJSJ and USVI TAF sites. && .MARINE... Issued at 300 AM AST Wed Feb 11 2026 A surface high pressure over the western Atlantic will promote moderate to fresh northeasterly winds through early this morning, gradually veering to the east and weakening through Thursday. A weak frontal boundary will linger over the region during the next few days, promoting cloudiness and light to moderate showers. A large, long period north-northwest swell will continue to bring hazardous seas across the Atlantic waters and passages through at least early Thursday. Small Craft Advisories are in effect for most local waters exposed to the NW swell. && .BEACH FORECAST... Issued at 300 AM AST Wed Feb 11 2026 A large, long-period north-northwest swell will continue to spread across the Atlantic waters and local Caribbean passages over the next few days. Latest buoy observations at Rincon and San Juan indicated seas between 9 and 12 feet with periods of 14 to 15 seconds, which translates to breaking waves of approximately 10 to 15 feet, and occasionally higher. High surf conditions, life- threatening rip currents, and minor coastal flooding are expected with this large breaking wave action along the northwest to northeast coasts of Puerto Rico, Culebra, Vieques, and the northern U.S. Virgin Islands. A Coastal Flood Advisory, High Surf Advisory, and High Rip Current Statements remain in effect. As the swell diminishes, beach conditions should improve by Friday, though they may deteriorate once again in the weekend as the latest model guidance suggests pulses of another long-period north- northwesterly swell arriving and spreading across the region. Beachgoers are urged to stay out of the water, continue monitoring forecast updates, and follow all local advisories, warnings, and guidance from lifeguards and local officials as conditions continue to deteriorate. && .SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PR...High Rip Current Risk through late Thursday night for PRZ001-002- 005-008-010-012. High Surf Advisory until 6 PM AST this evening for PRZ001-002- 005-008-010-012. High Rip Current Risk through this afternoon for PRZ011-013. VI...High Rip Current Risk through late Thursday night for VIZ001. High Surf Advisory until 6 PM AST this evening for VIZ001. High Rip Current Risk through this afternoon for VIZ002. AM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM AST Thursday for AMZ711-712-716- 741. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM AST Thursday for AMZ723-726-733- 742-745. && $$