AFDSJU Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Juan PR 138 PM AST Sat Mar 7 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 134 PM AST Sat Mar 7 2026 * Breezy to locally windy conditions will continue across Puerto Rico and the USVI by mid next week. Unsecured and outdoor objects may blow around. * Fresh to strong winds will continue to result in choppy to rough seas and a high risk of rip currents across the region. Small Craft Advisories and Rip Current Statements continue in effect through at least Monday. * A wet and unstable weather pattern will increase shower activity and the potential of isolated thunderstorms across the US Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico through the upcoming workweek. && .Short Term(This evening through Monday)... Issued at 134 PM AST Sat Mar 7 2026 Todays weather across Puerto Rico was dominated by variable and breezy conditions, with the most significant impacts occurring during the morning hours. A line of showers associated with a Culebra streamer developed and moved across portions of eastern Puerto Rico, producing periods of moderate rainfall across the San Juan metropolitan area. Rainfall totals generally ranged between 0.50 and 1.60 inches, which led to ponding of water on roads and poorly drainage areas, prompting the issuance of a Flood Advisory. Overall, the eastern half of Puerto Rico experienced the majority of the rainfall activity during the morning, while the western half remained mostly calm with cloudy skies. By the afternoon hours, showers started to develop over the western sections of PR. Looking ahead, the latest model guidance continues to suggest 500 mb humidity values around the 75th percentile or above normal, along with 500 mb temperatures between -8C and -10C. This combination indicates continued mid-level instability, which will support periods of shower development through the short-term period, particularly through Monday. Given this pattern, there is a low to moderate probability of additional passing showers, mainly across eastern and windward sectors. While widespread flooding is not anticipated, localized ponding of water remains the primary rainfall hazard, especially where showers repeatedly move over the same locations. From Sunday onward, conditions are expected to gradually stabilize and return closer to seasonal norms as a strong surface high over the western to central Atlantic becomes the dominant weather feature. This high will maintain a tight pressure gradient across the northeastern Caribbean, resulting in breezy to locally windy easterly trade winds. Sustained winds will generally range from 15 to 20 mph with gusts occasionally reaching 25 to 30 mph, resulting in a low but locally elevated probability of minor wind impacts, particularly where unsecured outdoor items could be blown around or minor tree limb movement occurs. && .Long Term(Tuesday through next Friday)... Issued at 134 PM AST Sat Mar 7 2026 An upper-level trough is expected to remain near the northeastern Caribbean through much of the upcoming workweek, with a persistent jet aloft supporting a more unstable atmospheric profile than typically observed in early March. Model guidance suggests that 500 mb temperatures will fall below climatological values, while mid-level lapse rates remain near or slightly above normal. At the same time, deep-layer moisture is forecast to gradually increase, with precipitable water values generally ranging from 1.4 to 1.75 inches, especially on Thursday and Friday. These conditions will weaken the trade wind inversion and support deeper convective development across the region. At the surface, building high pressure across the Atlantic will promote breezy to locally windy east-to-northeast winds through Thursday, gradually easing late in the week. Embedded moisture patches moving within this flow will result in passing showers across windward areas of Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands during the nighttime and morning hours, followed by locally driven convection across interior and western Puerto Rico each afternoon. If this scenario materializes, residents and visitors across Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands can expect occasional breezy to locally windy conditions, along with periods of moderate to locally heavy rainfall. These showers could result in ponding of water on roadways and in poorly drained areas, as well as localized urban and small-stream flooding. Additionally, isolated thunderstorms may produce lightning and brief periods of gusty winds. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 134 PM AST Sat Mar 7 2026 Mostly VFR conds thru the period across all TAF sites. Variable winds btwn 15-20 kt with gusts higher than 30 kt through 07/23Z. VCSH possible over TJPS and TJBQ after 07/16Z through 07/22Z. VCSH could affect TIST, TISX, TSJU terminals through the overnight. && .MARINE... Issued at 134 PM AST Sat Mar 7 2026 No major changes were introduced to the marine forecast. A surface trough over the region will continue to produce isolated to scattered showers over the local Atlantic and Caribbean waters, including passages. Small craft operators should remain weather alert as isolated thunderstorms over Caribbean waters and the Mona passage this afternoon into the evening. A series of high-pressure systems across the Atlantic will maintain fresh to locally strong east-northeasterly winds throughout the forecast period, resulting in choppy to rough seas across most regional waters and local passages. Local buoys reported seas between 5 and 7 feet and wind gusts up to 25 - 26 kt, while scatterometer observations show winds between 20 and 25 mph across most waters. Small Craft Advisories remain in effect through at least Tuesday, although they are likely to be extended again. Smaller vessels are strongly advised to avoid navigating in these hazardous conditions. && .BEACH FORECAST... Issued at 134 PM AST Sat Mar 7 2026 Hazardous beach conditions will persist across the islands as trade winds continue to generate breezy to windy conditions across regional waters and passages. As mentioned in the Marine section, seas remain between 5 and 7 feet and gusts up to 26 kt, while scatterometer scans show 20 to 25 kt. Additionally, model guidance suggests 6 to 8 feet across local Atlantic waters through at least Tuesday. Given the current conditions and guidance, the Rip Current Statement remains in effect for the northern and eastern beaches of Puerto Rico, Vieques, Culebra, and the U.S. Virgin Islands through at least Monday. Residents and visitors are urged to monitor conditions closely and strictly adhere to the advice of beach patrols, flag systems, and posted signs. While a moderate risk continues elsewhere for the next several days, all beachgoers should exercise caution, as life-threatening rip currents remain possible along the surf zone. Beach conditions should gradually improve by mid next week. && .SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PR...High Rip Current Risk through Monday morning for PRZ001-002- 005-008-012-013. VI...High Rip Current Risk through Monday morning for VIZ001-002. AM...Small Craft Advisory until midnight AST Tuesday night for AMZ711. Small Craft Advisory until noon AST Monday for AMZ712-716-723- 726-733-741. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM AST this evening for AMZ735. && $$