AFDSJU Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Juan PR 115 PM AST Fri Nov 21 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 100 PM AST Fri Nov 21 2025 * Limited shower activity is expected across Puerto Rico over the next few days, with no hazard threats anticipated at this time. *A fair-weather pattern will continue to prevail across the U.S. Virgin Islands, with no hazards expected. *Life-threatening rip currents will remain possible along the north- and east-facing beaches of Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands through Saturday evening. && .Short Term (This evening through Sunday)... Issued at 100 PM AST Fri Nov 21 2025 Mostly sunny skies prevailed during the morning hours, becoming partly cloudy by the afternoon, particularly across western and southwestern Puerto Rico. Isolated afternoon showers have begun to develop over western areas; however, these are expected to dissipate near sunset, leaving partly cloudy skies. Maximum temperatures ranged from the mid-80s to 90 degrees across the lower elevations. A mid-level ridge will continue to build over the forecast area as a deep polar trough shifts eastward and gradually dissipates. At lower levels, a surface high-pressure system over the western tropical Atlantic will maintain a moderate east-northeast wind flow through the next few days. As the upper-level ridge strengthens, moisture across the eastern Caribbean will steadily erode, with precipitable water values remaining below 1.5 inches. Nevertheless, the surface high will continue to bring patches of moisture at times. As a result, a seasonable weather pattern will dominate the forecast cycle, with limited afternoon shower development across southwest Puerto Rico. Elsewhere, fair weather conditions are expected to prevail. High temperatures will continue to range from the mid-80s to around 90F across the lower elevations, while nighttime lows in the higher terrain may drop into the mid-50s under clearer skies. && .LONG TERM (Monday through Friday)... Issued at 423 AM AST Fri Nov 21 2025 Model guidance is trending toward greater consensus, suggesting a potential climatological pattern across the Northeast Caribbean, including Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands. However, a short- wave trough aloft will swing by the region from the west, increasing the potential for afternoon convection (30-50 percent chance of precipitation), especially around Monday afternoon into the evening along the Cordillera Central and crossing the USVI. From Tuesday into Thursday, there is a better agreement that high pressure at mid levels will promote subsidence and a trade wind inversion over the region, trapping all the moisture at low levels. Thus, we expect a mixture of sunshine and clouds, with occasional patches of moisture embedded in the trades bringing showery weather over the windward locations of PR and the USVI. However, this activity does not represent a flooding threat for the region. Temperatures across the islands are expected to continue cooling. Model forecasts suggest that temperatures at 925 mb will be slightly below normal, roughly at the 25th percentile compared to typical November conditions. However, there may be instances, particularly during peak heating in the afternoon, when temperatures can reach near-normal levels (around the 50th percentile). && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 100 PM AST Fri Nov 21 2025 VFR will prevail thru the prd across all TAF sites. However, brief VCTS psbl nr TJPS after 22/1700Z. VCSH possible after 22/23Z over TISX/TIST during the overnight hours, Winds from the northeast up to 15 kts and some sea breeze variations through 22/22Z, bcmng light and VRB after 22/23Z. && .MARINE... Issued at 100 PM AST Fri Nov 21 2025 A surface high will build over the western Atlantic during the next few days, promoting a moderate east-northeast wind flow. A surface low over the eastern Atlantic will generate pulses of long-period northeasterly swells, arriving around Tuesday or Wednesday of next week. Seas below SCA criteria at least through the upcoming workweek. && .BEACH FORECAST... Issued at 100 PM AST Fri Nov 21 2025 A moderate risk of rip currents will prevail for the north and east-facing beaches through at least late Saturday night. The risk is forecast to be low from Sunday to Tuesday evening. Then, another long-period northeasterly swell will increase the risk to moderate or high from late Tuesday night into the middle of next week. && .SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PR...None. VI...None. AM...None. && $$