AFDSJU Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Juan PR 440 AM AST Thu Jan 8 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 403 AM AST Thu Jan 8 2026 * Life-threatening rip currents are expected along the north and east-facing beaches of Puerto Rico through this afternoon due to a persistent northeasterly swell across the local Atlantic waters. A moderate risk will continue for north and east- facing beaches of the U.S. Virgin Islands. * Expect passing morning showers across the windward areas of Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands, and afternoon showers across the interior and southwest Puerto Rico. * Seasonal temperatures will prevail across the islands through the next several days, with cooler conditions continuing in the higher elevations. && .Short Term(Today through Saturday)... Issued at 403 AM AST Thu Jan 8 2026 Clear to partly cloudy skies were observed across the islands during the overnight hours. Passing showers were noted mainly across the regional waters, and briefly along the northern and eastern sections of Puerto Rico. Little to no rainfall was observed across the U.S. Virgin Islands. Minimum temperatures were from the upper 60s to low 70s across the lower elevations of the islands to the upper 50s and mid-60s across the higher elevations of Puerto Rico. Mostly light winds prevailed over land areas with a northeasterly component and gusts around 12 mph. A weak, broad trough east/northeast of the region is expected to increase the overall moisture content today. However, pockets of dry air will also be carried by the light to moderate east to northeast trades. This weather pattern will continue during the next few days, and as the trough pulls further into the central Atlantic, a surface high pressure building over the western Atlantic will promote stronger winds by Saturday and increase the frequency of passing showers across the islands in general. Therefore, expect showers to move at times during the nighttime across the USVI, and east/northern sections of PR during the night. In the afternoon, the available limited moisture content in combination with daytime heating and the sea breeze convergence will cause showers to develop over portions of the Cordillera, including the southern and western slopes. Seasonal temperatures will prevail throughout the short-term period, resulting in generally pleasant conditions across the islands. High temperatures will remain near climatological normals. However, slightly warmer temperatures are expected each day along the southern portions of PR, where max temps could reach the upper 80s. Cooler conditions are expected at night under mostly clear skies across the higher elevations and valleys of PR. && .Long Term(Sunday through Thursday)... Issued at 403 AM AST Thu Jan 8 2026 Surface high pressure over the north-central Atlantic will promote moderate to locally fresh east-northeast winds through late Tuesday night. From Wednesday onward, winds are expected to shift from the east as the high pressure migrates toward the eastern Atlantic. At the mid-to-upper levels, a ridge will build over the southwestern Atlantic while a Tropical Upper Tropospheric Trough (TUTT) begins to develop over the central Atlantic, northeast of the Lesser Antilles. The latest model guidance continues to suggest precipitable water (PWAT) values will remain near normal on Sunday before dropping below seasonal averages by Monday (0.85 to 1.21 inches). Despite the strength of the TUTT low to the northeast, dry air intrusion associated with the mid-to-upper level ridge will promote stable conditions aloft. This will inhibit shower development across Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands throughout the period. Temperatures at the 925 mb level will remain near seasonal averages. Consequently, expect maximum temperatures in the low to mid-80s across lower elevations and in the mid to upper 70s across higher terrain. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 403 AM AST Thu Jan 8 2026 Mainly VFR conditions are expected to prevail across all terminals during the next 24 hours. However, brief periods of -RA/VCSH are expected thru the early morning hours at TJSJ/TJBQ. Locally induced SHRA over central PR, may cause tempo MVFR cigs at TJPS btw 08/17z- 21z. E-ENE winds up to 12 kt with sea breeze variations and higher gusts expected aft 08/13z. && .MARINE... Issued at 403 AM AST Thu Jan 8 2026 A long-period northeasterly swell will continue to spread across the Atlantic waters and local Caribbean passages through today, resulting in building seas between 4 to 6 feet. A surface high pressure over the western Atlantic, along with weak induced surface troughs northeast of the region, will promote moderate east to northeast trade winds today through the the rest of the week. && .BEACH FORECAST... Issued at 403 AM AST Thu Jan 8 2026 Hazardous coastal conditions will continue across the local beaches through at least this afternoon due to a spreading northeasterly swell affecting the Atlantic waters. This swell will maintain life- threatening rip current conditions along the northwest to northeast-facing beaches of Puerto Rico, where a High Rip Current Risk remains in effect until later today. Life-threatening rip currents are possible along north and east-facing beaches of the U.S. Virgin Islands, where a moderate rip current risk is expected. For localized and updated risk levels, visit weather.gov/beach/sju. && .SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PR...High Rip Current Risk through this afternoon for PRZ001-002-005- 008. VI...None. AM...None. && $$