AFDSJU Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED National Weather Service San Juan PR 350 AM AST Fri Nov 7 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 243 AM AST Fri Nov 7 2025 * Life-threatening rip currents are likely along the Atlantic shorelines as a northerly swell continues to affect the local waters. * The flooding risk will increase on Sunday, particularly across the eastern portions of Puerto Rico, as a tropical wave moves across the forecast area. * After Monday, decreasing flooding risk to limited and none is forecast with the gradual improvement in weather conditions across the islands. * Across the US Virgin Islands, passing showers to continue with a high risk of rip currents for Saint Thomas and Saint John today. && .Short Term(Today through Sunday)... Issued at 243 AM AST Fri Nov 7 2025 Partly cloudy skies prevailed overnight, with passing showers observed across the local waters, eastern Puerto Rico, and the outlying islands. Temperatures were in the mid-70s to around 80 degrees at lower elevations and from the mid- to upper-60s at higher elevations. A mid-level ridge will continue to dominate the local region, with some strengthening expected toward the end of the forecast period. At the surface, a high-pressure system over the central Atlantic will maintain east-southeast winds across the islands, while a tropical wave/easterly disturbance is forecast to move through the area on Sunday. As this feature approaches the eastern Caribbean, moisture advection is expected to increase. The GFS model remains more aggressive in its depiction of this moisture surge compared to the ECMWF guidance. Nevertheless, precipitable water values are expected to rise steadily, reaching or exceeding 2.0 inches by Sunday. As a result, the likelihood of showers and thunderstorms will then increase late Saturday into Sunday as the tropical wave moves across the local islands. Shower and thunderstorm activity will focus over eastern Puerto Rico from Saturday night into Sunday morning, spreading westward through the day on Sunday. Although these showers are expected to move quickly as the 925 mb winds strengthen, the flooding risk will increase on Sunday, with the potential for urban and small stream flooding under the heaviest activity. Meanwhile today and Saturday, continue to expect afternoon showers and isolated thunderstorms across western Puerto Rico, driven by sea breeze convergence. Elsewhere, passing showers at times, particularly eastern Puerto Rico, Vieques, Culebra and the US Virgin Islands Friday night into early Saturday morning. && .Long Term(Monday through Friday)... Issued at 243 AM AST Fri Nov 7 2025 Residual moisture from the passage of the tropical wave on Sunday will linger across the region on Monday, maintaining a moist environment conducive to scattered showers throughout the day and isolated thunderstorms, particularly during the afternoon. Although mid-level instability will gradually weaken, localized flooding remains possible, particularly over western and northwestern portions of Puerto Rico, where diurnal and local effects may enhance convection. By Tuesday, model guidance continues to suggest a gradual improvement in weather conditions as a mid- to upper-level ridge strengthens over the area. This ridge will promote increased atmospheric stability and a gradual drying trend. Relative humidity values between 700 and 500 mb are expected to range between the 50th and 25th percentiles, corresponding to near- normal to below-normal moisture levels for this time of year. Through at least Friday, the ridge will remain the dominant feature, maintaining mostly stable and fair weather conditions. Under the easterly wind flow, expect brief passing showers over windward and coastal areas during the nighttime and early morning hours, followed by isolated to scattered afternoon showers and a few thunderstorms across western Puerto Rico each day, driven mainly by local and diurnal effects. Overall, a return to a more typical trade wind pattern is anticipated for mid-to-late week, with below-average Relative Humidity and Precipitable Water values, and limited flooding potential. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 243 AM AST Fri Nov 7 2025 VFR conditions are expected to prevail at all TAF sites through the forecast cycle. However, SHRA/TSRA may develop across W PR after 07/17Z, possibly affecting JBQ through about 07/22z. This may result in brief MVFR conditions. ESE winds at 10-15 kts and typical sea breeze variations to continue. && .MARINE... Issued at 243 AM AST Fri Nov 7 2025 A surface high pressure, building from the western to central Atlantic, will result in a moderate to locally fresh east to east- southeasterly wind flow. A north to northeasterly swell will spread across the local Atlantic Waters and Caribbean Passages, peaking by this morning, followed by a smaller secondary northeasterly swell during the weekend. A tropical wave will move across the Lesser Antilles by Saturday, reaching the USVI and PR on Sunday. This tropical wave is expected to bring unsettled weather conditions, and an increase in local winds and seas. && .BEACH FORECAST... Issued at 243 AM AST Fri Nov 7 2025 A northerly swell will begin to build across the Atlantic waters and northern coastlines, causing seas to increase and the rip current risk to expand westward posing a risk for high rip currents along the north and east-facing beaches of Puerto Rico, Culebra, and the northern U.S. Virgin Islands through Saturday, where life- threatening rip currents will be possible. Weather- wise, a few afternoon showers or isolated thunderstorms could develop near the coast, particularly across western Puerto Rico. If you hear thunder, move indoors immediately. For the latest updates on coastal and marine conditions, visit weather.gov/beach/sju. && .SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PR...High Rip Current Risk from 6 AM AST this morning through late tonight for PRZ001-002-005-008-012. High Rip Current Risk from 6 AM AST this morning through this afternoon for PRZ010. VI...High Rip Current Risk from 6 AM AST this morning through late tonight for VIZ001. AM...None. && $$