AFDSJU Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Juan PR 300 AM AST Thu Feb 12 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 257 AM AST Thu Feb 12 2026 * A more unsettled and variable weather pattern is expected with frequent passing isolated to moderate showers along eastern sections of the islands during most of the day, spreading across the area during the day. Given the expected conditions, there is a limited flood threat across eastern sections of Puerto Rico, Culebra, Vieques and the U.S. Virgin islands. * For the U.S. Virgin Islands, variable weather conditions will persist with cloudiness and showers affecting the islands. * There is a high risk of rip currents across the northern exposed coastal areas during the day, with dangerous breaking waves. * From today into Friday, a warming pattern is expected due to a southeasterly wind flow. && .Short Term(Today through Saturday)... Issued at 257 AM AST Thu Feb 12 2026 A deteriorating weather pattern prevailed across the region tonight with the arrival of an induced surface trough and moisture with PWAT of 1.5 in, as shows the derived Satellite imagery. Although the mainland and adjacent islands have mostly cloudy skies and limited shower activity, the local waters, especially the Caribbean waters, have experienced periods of continuous moderate to heavy showers. Some brief showers were observed very early in the morning across the San Juan metro area, with minimal rainfall accumulation. Winds remained from the east veering more into the southeast up to 8 knots. Overnight temperatures were very pleasant, with the low to mid 70s across coastal and urban areas and the low 60s across the mountain areas. A broad surface high pressure over the Central Atlantic will continue to promote a moderate east-to-southeasterly wind flow across the islands. Under this pattern, moisture associated with the previous frontal band will move across the region due to the prevailing wind flow and the presence of a surface trough. This pattern will support the development of cloudy skies during the morning hours, with shower activity across southeastern and southern Puerto Rico, as well as across Saint Croix in the U.S. Virgin Islands. As the day progresses, upper and mid-level divergence resulting in colder temperatures at 500 mb, in combination with available surface moisture, will enhance periods of moderate to locally strong showers focused across the southeastern sections and portions of the western interior into northwestern Puerto Rico. Although the forecast does not call for widespread thunderstorm activity, one or two isolated thunderstorms cannot be ruled out within the heaviest activity. The rainfall threat today will remain limited, with minor flooding possible in low-lying and urban areas, mainly across the eastern sections. Similar conditions are forecast for Friday, with southeasterly winds driven by the interaction between the surface high pressure and the approach of a prefrontal boundary, which is sinking north of the region. By Friday afternoon, most of the surface moisture will have moved out of the area, allowing a much drier airmass to dominate, with precipitable water values dropping to around 1.2 inches. Therefore, although conditions may begin slightly variable in the morning, reduced shower activity is expected for most of the day. On Saturday, as the prefrontal trough moves closer to the region, winds will back from the east- southeast to more east-northeast. Additionally, given the proximity of the prefrontal boundary, a weak pressure gradient is expected, leading to variable winds across the islands. This surface change will influence the direction and development of showers. As a result, the forecast calls for widespread light to moderate showers across the interior due to increased moisture. Temperature-wise: Due to the change in the surface winds becoming more from the southeast, a warming trend is expected, as suggest the 925 MB temperatures with a considerable increase in Daytime temperatures. As a result, maximum temperatures will range from the upper 80s to the lower 90s across coastal and urban areas, and from the low to mid 80s across the mountains. && .Long Term(Sunday through Thursday)... Issued at 257 AM AST Thu Feb 12 2026 As of right now, the wettest portion of the forecast period is expected from Sunday into Monday, as another frontal boundary approaches the forecast area from the northwest. This feature, combined with a prevailing mid- to upper-level trough, will promote enhanced moisture convergence and instability across the region. Increasing precipitable water values and favorable upper-level dynamics will support a higher coverage of showers, particularly across northern and western Puerto Rico, with periods of locally heavy rainfall possible. On Monday, winds will gradually veer to an easterly direction as a surface high builds over the western Atlantic and migrates toward the central Atlantic through the latter part of the period. By Tuesday, a mid- to upper-level ridge is forecast to establish across the region, promoting a gradual stabilization of the atmosphere. Latest precipitable water (PWAT) guidance supports this trend, with values returning closer to the seasonal values for this time of the year around 1.20 to 1.55 inches. Under this pattern, trade-wind moisture will favor brief passing morning showers across eastern Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands, followed by afternoon convective development over interior and western Puerto Rico. Overall, the flooding threat should decrease after Monday as more stable conditions take hold. Warm and humid conditions are expected to persist through the remainder of the period. Residents are encouraged to continue monitoring future forecasts, especially regarding rainfall trends early in the week. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 257 AM AST Thu Feb 12 2026 VFR conditions will remain for all TAF sites during the period, with some brief MVFR periods due to an increase in SHRA at 12/15Z across TJSJ, TISX & TIST. Winds will remain VRB increasing at 12/15Z from the E-SE up to 15 knots with gusty winds near the showers. RA to SHRA are expected to increase during the day resulting in lower Cigs and a VIS reduction, especially across the mountains. && .MARINE... Issued at 257 AM AST Thu Feb 12 2026 Offshore and nearshore buoy observations indicate that northerly swell energy is gradually diminishing across the Atlantic waters this evening. As a result, hazardous marine conditions will slowly improve, with seas subsiding below advisory levels in some areas by Thursday onwards. However, Small Craft Advisories will remain in effect through at least early Thursday as residual swell and moderate to locally fresh easterly winds continue to produce hazardous conditions for small craft. Marine conditions are expected to improve through the weekend as seas subside and winds weaken. However, pulses of another northerly swell will reach the Atlantic waters by Monday of next week, causing marine conditions to once again become hazardous at times, particularly across the offshore Atlantic waters. Moderate to heavy showers will develop over the regional waters at times as remnants of a frontal boundary continue to persist over the region. This could result in localized hazardous seas near the strongest showers. && .BEACH FORECAST... Issued at 257 AM AST Thu Feb 12 2026 Offshore and nearshore buoy data show a gradual decrease in northerly swell energy this evening. Despite the improving trend, with breaking waves now between 7-9 ft across all the northern exposed local beaches. Therefore, a high risk of rip currents will remain in effect through Thursday, posing life- threatening swimming conditions. Conditions will deteriorate again late in the weekend into early next week as additional pulses of northerly swell reach the Atlantic coast. For localized and updated rip current information, visit weather.gov/beach/sju. && .SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PR...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for PRZ001-002-005- 008-010-012. High Rip Current Risk until 6 AM AST early this morning for PRZ011-013. VI...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for VIZ001. High Rip Current Risk until 6 AM AST early this morning for VIZ002. AM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM AST this evening for AMZ711-712- 716-741. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM AST early this morning for AMZ723-726-733-742-745. && $$