AFDSJU Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED National Weather Service San Juan PR 400 AM AST Thu Feb 26 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 237 AM AST Thu Feb 26 2026 * Hazardous marine and beach conditions continue along the Atlantic coastlines of Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. Life- threatening rip currents and dangerous breaking waves are expected from Rincon to Fajardo, including Culebra, St. Thomas, and St. John. * Breezy trade winds will bring passing showers across the USVI and PR`s windward sections through the end of the week. Most showers will be brief and fast-moving, but isolated periods of moderate to heavy rain could cause ponding on roads and reduced visibility. * Friday appears to be the wettest day of the short term, with warmer temperatures and a slightly higher chance of afternoon thunderstorms. Widespread flooding is not expected, but localized impacts remain possible. && .Short Term(Today through Saturday)... Issued at 237 AM AST Thu Feb 26 2026 Overnight conditions were generally calm across Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. High-level cirrus clouds moved eastward across the northeastern Caribbean. A few brief showers passed over windward (eastern, including E-PR/USVI) locations, but most of the rain activity remained over the regional waters. Temperatures fell into the middle or lower 70s along the coast and into the low 60s, and even cooler, across the higher elevations and valleys, at the moment of writing this discussion. Winds were light overall, ranging from calm in some western areas to 5-15 mph across exposed eastern sites. A surface high pressure system building across the central and western Atlantic will promote a typical trade wind pattern over the next several days. Breezy easterly winds today will bring fast-moving patches of moisture across the region. By Friday afternoon into Saturday, winds will gradually shift to the east- southeast, allowing temperatures to trend warmer and pooling additional moisture, especially on Friday. Most showers will move quickly from east to west. Although brief periods of moderate to locally heavy rainfall are possible, the fast motion of showers should limit the potential for widespread flooding. However, residents and visitors should remain alert for brief reductions in visibility and ponding of water on roadways and in poorly drained areas. Mid-level air remains relatively dry, limiting the overall coverage of afternoon convection. Still, localized showers are expected each afternoon over interior and western Puerto Rico due to daytime heating. Rainfall coverage is forecast to increase somewhat on Friday as available moisture deepens, and a few thunderstorms cannot be ruled out (thus, we included the isolated thunderstorms for the afternoon). Friday is currently the wettest day of the short-term period. The primary hazard at this time remains hazardous marine and coastal conditions along the Atlantic-facing coastlines. Dangerous breaking waves and life-threatening rip currents are expected from Rincon through Fajardo, including Culebra, as well as across St. Thomas, St. John, and adjacent islands. Beachgoers are strongly urged to follow local safety guidance and avoid entering the water where rip current risk is high. Overall, flooding concerns remain limited due to the fast-moving nature of showers and moisture values trending near to slightly below climatological normals. && .Long Term(Sunday through Thursday)... Issued at 237 AM AST Thu Feb 26 2026 A broad surface high over the north-central Atlantic will continue to dominate the regional pattern through midweek, maintaining a tight pressure gradient and breezy to windy low-level flow across Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. Winds will remain from the east-southeast to southeast on Sunday, gradually backing to easterly Monday night into Tuesday as the high shifts eastward. By Wednesday, an additional high building into the western Atlantic will reinforce the gradient and promote east to east- northeast winds across the region. This evolving wind pattern will govern moisture transport and shower distribution. Sunday will remain relatively stable with lingering drier air and a weak trade wind cap limiting convection; however, moisture will increase beginning Sunday night and persist through midweek, with embedded patches of deeper moisture moving within the trade wind flow. Breezy to windy conditions will persist each day, with gusty periods possible in exposed and elevated areas. Frequent passing showers will continue daily as strong trade winds push moisture inland, with coverage increasing Monday and Tuesday as deeper moisture moves across the region. As winds shift from east-southeast to easterly and eventually east-northeasterly, shower activity will adjust, favoring eastern and southeastern areas at first, then northeastern areas later in the period, while afternoon showers develop over interior and western Puerto Rico. Significant rainfall may accumulate where showers repeatedly move over the same areas, and isolated heavier afternoon downpours could lead to minor urban and small stream flooding, particularly Monday and Tuesday. Temperatures will remain near seasonal normals. Overall, the primary hazards through midweek will be persistent breezy to windy conditions each day and an limited flooding risk early in the week. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 237 AM AST Thu Feb 26 2026 VFR conditions will prevail today. Patches of low-level clouds moving from the east will bring SCT to brief BKN ceilings at times across local terminals. Also, some showers will develop near JBQ between 26/18-23z. Winds will prevail calm to light and variable across the leeward sites, and from E at 8-11 kt across the windward sites. After 26/13z, winds will be mainly from the E at 10-20 kt with higher gusts and sea breeze variations through 26/23z. && .MARINE... Issued at 237 AM AST Thu Feb 26 2026 The long-period north-northwesterly swell will continue to spread across the Atlantic waters and passages through Friday, building seas between 6 and 10 feet. Hazardous seas are expected to linger through Friday, and Small Craft Advisories are in effect for all Atlantic waters and local passages. Fresh to locally strong trades will return through the end of the week, as a surface high pressure strengthens over the Central Atlantic. && .BEACH FORECAST... Issued at 237 AM AST Thu Feb 26 2026 The High Surf Advisory remains in effect for the northern shore of Puerto Rico, from Rincon through Fajardo and was extended to Culebra and Saint Thomas through Friday. In these areas, expect localized beach erosion and dangerous swimming conditions. Swell energy will also result in hazardous beach conditions in Vieques and Saint Croix. For further details on hazard timing and locations, please refer to CFWSJU. Beach conditions will start to improve by Saturday as the swell gradually subsides. For safety, always check local conditions before swimming. Beachgoers and inexperienced surfers are urged to avoid beaches exposed to the northerly swell. Remember to swim near a lifeguard, never swim alone, and, if caught in a rip current, remain calm, do not exhaust yourself, and stay afloat while waiting for help. For localized and updated rip current information, visit weather.gov/beach/sju. && .SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PR...High Rip Current Risk through Friday afternoon for PRZ001-002- 005-008-010>013. High Surf Advisory until 6 AM AST Friday for PRZ001-002-005-008- 010. Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 5 PM AST this afternoon for PRZ027. High Surf Advisory from 6 AM this morning to 6 AM AST Friday for PRZ012. VI...High Rip Current Risk through Friday afternoon for VIZ001. High Surf Advisory from 6 AM this morning to 6 AM AST Friday for VIZ001. High Rip Current Risk from 6 AM AST this morning through Friday afternoon for VIZ002. AM...Small Craft Advisory until midnight AST Friday night for AMZ711- 723. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM AST Friday for AMZ712-716-726- 733-741. Small Craft Advisory until noon AST Friday for AMZ742-745. High Rip Current Risk through Friday afternoon for AMZ745. && $$