AFDSJU Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Juan PR 244 PM AST Sat Feb 14 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 153 PM AST Sat Feb 14 2026 * The flood threat will remain elevated along portions of the Cordillera and southern PR this afternoon. * A frontal boundary will turn winds from the north and increase cloudiness and shower activity from tonight into Sunday. * For the U.S. Virgin Islands, shower activity is expected to increase in general on Sunday as the front moves over the region. * A northerly swell will increase the risk of rip currents across the northern exposed beaches of the islands on Sunday. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for the offshore Atlantic waters due to seas up to 7 feet. && .Short Term(This evening through Monday)... Issued at 153 PM AST Sat Feb 14 2026 Sunny to partly cloudy skies were observed through the morning hours across the islands. However, by noon, cloudiness and showers were increasing over the mountains of the islands, and drifting slowly into the southern portions. By 2 PM AST, the Doppler radar estimated between 1 and 1.50 inches across portions of the Cordillera Central. In the USVI, this activity is expected to continue through the rest of the afternoon hours. High temperatures were in the mid 80s across the lower elevations to the mid and upper 70s across the higher elevations. For the rest of tonight into Sunday, a frontal boundary will continue to increase cloudiness and shower activity across the local area. Therefore, the flood threat will remain elevated in general across PR, and particularly across the northern half of the island as winds turn more northerly and increase between 15 and 20 knots. Passing showers and cloudiness will gradually increase from the northern USVI to St. Croix throughout the day on Sunday. By early Monday, winds will turn from the east, as the surface high pressure behind the front builds over the central Atlantic. These winds will carry the remnants of the front into the offshore Atlantic waters, and a drier air mass is expected move over the region promoting fair weather conditions in general across the islands. && .Long Term(Tuesday through next Friday)... From prev discussion issued at 305 AM AST Sat Feb 14 2026 The long-term period will be dominated by generally calm weather conditions, with only a few passing showers at times and no indications of an elevated or significant flooding risk. By late Tuesday, a mid- to upper-level ridge will establish across the forecast area, while a surface high pressure system builds in, promoting more stable conditions. PWAT values are now ranging between the 50th and 25th percentiles, or near to below normal for this time of year, with values decreasing from around 1.40 inches to near 1.00 inch. As a result, shower coverage is expected to remain limited, with trade-wind moisture favoring brief passing morning showers across eastern Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands, followed by isolated afternoon convective development over interior and western Puerto Rico as mostly easterly winds prevail. These conditions are expected to prevail through Friday. Overall, the flooding threat should remain low through the end of the period as stable conditions continue to dominate. Nevertheless, the public is encouraged to continue monitoring the forecast for any changes. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 153 PM AST Sat Feb 14 2026 SHRA will continue to increase across the local area due to an approaching front. VFR conds expected early in the fcst period at TJSJ and the USVI terminals, with tempo MVFR conds possible at TJBQ and TJPS through the rest of the afternoon hours. From around 15/00z onward, -RA and BKN/OVC cigs are expected to gradually affect the area terminals from northern PR into the USVI terminals by 25/08z. Winds light and variable, but will acquire a northerly component as the front pushes just over the islands this evening. && .MARINE... Issued at 153 PM AST Sat Feb 14 2026 A surface high pressure over the eastern Atlantic, interacting with an approaching cold front from the western Atlantic will lead to light to gentle southeast winds during the day. Then, the cold front will bring back moderate northerly winds from tonight through the rest of the weekend, along with increasing cloud cover and rain chances. A long period northerly swell will arrive on Sunday and last through early Monday, building seas between 5 and 7 feet across the offshore Atlantic waters. && .BEACH FORECAST... Issued at 153 PM AST Sat Feb 14 2026 A northerly swell will increase the risk of rip currents along the northern beaches of Puerto Rico on Sunday, and a High Rip Current Risk will likely be issued later today. A low to moderate risk of rip currents is expected elsewhere across the southern beaches of PR and the USVI. Beach goers are urged to exercise caution across the northern exposed beaches of the islands through the rest of the weekend. && .SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PR...None. VI...None. AM...Small Craft Advisory from noon Sunday to 6 AM AST Monday for AMZ711. && $$