AFDSJU Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Juan PR 200 PM AST Thu Jan 29 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 146 PM AST Thu Jan 29 2026 * There is an increasing risk of urban and small-stream flooding from Saturday onwards as a frontal boundary approaches from the west. * For the U.S. Virgin Islands, the primary hazard will remain dangerous swimming conditions and hazardous seas in the near term. An increased risk of flooding is anticipated next week. * There is a high change of observing rip current in beaches from Rincon to Fajardo, Culebra, and the northern U.S. Virgin Islands through Friday afternoon. Please remember, rip currents can sweep even the best swimmers away from shore into deeper water, where it becomes difficult to return to safety. * Small Craft are urged to exercise caution along the northern Offshore Atlantic waters as seas can exceed 6 to 7 feet through tonight. && .Short Term(This evening through Saturday)... Issued at 146 PM AST Thu Jan 29 2026 Mostly sunny skies prevailed across Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands during the morning hours, becoming variably cloudy during the afternoon. Maximum temperatures reached the mid-80s across coastal areas and the mid to upper 70s across higher elevations. Easterly winds of 1020 mph were observed. Limited afternoon convection will remain possible across western Puerto Rico later today, with activity expected to dissipate around sunset. The short-term forecast remains on track, with a sharp increase in shower activity anticipated toward the end of the forecast period. This evolving pattern will be driven by a deepening trough over the western Atlantic and enhanced moisture advection under a southerly wind flow. Overall, model guidance is in good agreement, indicating precipitable water values approaching or exceeding 2.0 inches by Saturday night. As a result, the intensity and areal coverage of afternoon showers are expected to increase by Saturday afternoon, followed by frequent passing showers with heavy rain at times across eastern and southern Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands Saturday night. Consequently, the risk of urban and small-stream flooding will increase from Saturday onward. Meanwhile, expect a few passing showers across eastern Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands tonight through Friday morning, followed by another round of afternoon showers across northwestern Puerto Rico on Friday afternoon. No significant weather threats are expected tonight or Friday. Saturday is expected to be the most active and wettest day of the short-term period. && .Long Term(Sunday through next Wednesday)... Issued at 146 PM AST Thu Jan 29 2026 //from previous discussion// The long-term forecast remains tied to a frontal boundary lingering over Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. The latest global models continue to suggest an increase in precipitable water content to between 2.00 and 2.25 inches, well above climatological normals, from Sunday through midweek. At the upper levels, the region will remain positioned between a trough over the western Atlantic and a ridge to the southeast through late Tuesday or Wednesday. Depending on the exact placement and evolution of these features, the combination of upper-level dynamics and persistent low-level moisture convergence along the frontal boundary will support widespread rainfall. This activity is expected to increase in coverage from Sunday through Tuesday across Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. Given the anticipated atmospheric setup, there is a significant potential for heavy rainfall across the area beginning early next week. As the front approaches on Sunday and Monday, the influx of Caribbean moisture, south-southeasterly winds, daytime heating, and local orographic effects will likely trigger heavy rain across portions of northwestern and northern Puerto Rico. As the front passes over the islands, winds will shift from the north, pushing rainfall activity toward the eastern, southeastern, and southern portions of Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands from late Monday through Wednesday. Potential impacts include ponding of water on roadways, urban and small-stream flooding, and localized flash flooding. Isolated thunderstorms and gusty winds cannot be ruled out with the heavier shower activity. In general, weather conditions are expected to remain unsettled, with the primary concerns being above-normal rainfall and localized flooding potential through at least Wednesday. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 146 PM AST Thu Jan 29 2026 Mainly VFR conditions expected to prevail across all TAF sites during the next 24 hrs. VCSH or -SHRA are likely across TJBQ thru 29/23Z. Aft 29/23Z, and increase in the frequency of showers is expected across TISX, TIST, TJSJ. SE winds around 8 to 13 kts and generally becoming lighter after 30/00Z, then picking up again around 30/09-15Z. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 146 PM AST Thu Jan 29 2026 Mainly VFR conditions expected to prevail across all terminals during the next 24 hrs. However, SCT/BKN cigs btw FL030-060 should continue over the PR terminals through the mid-morning hours with mostly VCSH expected. Afternoon SHRA expected in and around TJBQ fm 29/18-23z, causing tempo MVFR to brief IFR conds. Low-level winds will continue ESE at 8-12 kt with sea breeze variations and higher gusts aft 29/14z. && .MARINE... Issued at 146 PM AST Thu Jan 29 2026 Light to moderate east to southeast winds will prevail through the end of the week as a surface high pressure shifts eastward over the central Atlantic. A north to northwest swell will increase sea up to 7 feet across the offshore Atlantic waters and a Small Craft Advisory is now in effect through midnight tonight. A larger, long period northerly swell is expected to build seas up to around 10 feet. By Monday, combining with increasing winds to produce hazardous seas across the local waters through midweek. An increase in shower and thunderstorm activity is also expected from this weekend into early next week due to an approaching front and a trough. && .BEACH FORECAST... Issued at 146 PM AST Thu Jan 29 2026 Pulses of weak northerly swells will continue to affect the Atlantic waters through the remainder of the week, with the strongest pulse expected through Friday afternoon. A high rip current risk is in effect for the beaches from Rincon to Fajardo, Culebra, and the northern U.S. Virgin Islands. Beachgoers are encouraged to monitor the forecast for updates and changing conditions. Please remember, rip currents can sweep even the best swimmers away from shore into deeper water, where it becomes difficult to return to safety. Residents and visitors should also note that beach conditions may further deteriorate early next week due to increasing winds and the arrival of a stronger northwesterly to northerly long-period swell, potentially leading to hazardous beach conditions. Additionally, a change in the weather pattern may bring showers and thunderstorms from this weekend into early next week, increasing risks for beachgoers. && .SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PR...High Rip Current Risk through Friday afternoon for PRZ001-002- 005-008-010-012. VI...High Rip Current Risk through Friday afternoon for VIZ001. AM...Small Craft Advisory until midnight AST tonight for AMZ711. && $$