AFDSJU Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Juan PR 234 PM AST Wed Mar 4 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 218 PM AST Wed Mar 4 2026 * Fresh to strong winds will result in choppy to rough seas and high risk of rip currents across the region. Small Craft Advisories and Rip Current Statements continue in effect through at least Saturday. * Breezy to Windy Conditions will continue across coastal areas of the islands, unsecured and outdoor objects may blow around. These conditions will likely persist for the next several days. * Moderate to locally strong showers will lead to ponding of water over roadways and poorly drained areas over eastern and western Puerto Rico, and the U. for the rest of today. && .Short Term(This evening through Friday)... Issued at 218 PM AST Wed Mar 4 2026 Variable weather conditions prevailed across the islands today under mostly clear to partly cloudy skies. By mid-morning, a patch of low- level moisture began filtering into the area, triggering showers across St. Croix and eastern Puerto Rico. Later, another round of showers developed over St. Thomas and Culebra, eventually spreading across the eastern interior of Puerto Rico. Despite this activity, Doppler radar estimated rainfall accumulations, ranging between 0.50 and 1.00 inches. Breezy to windy conditions persisted under an easterly winds with sustained speeds of 17 to 29 mph with higher gusts. The Henry E. Rohlsen International Airport in St. Croix reported a max wind gust of 38 mph, while the Luis Muoz Marn International Airport in San Juan reported a max wind gust of 37 mph. As this patch of moisture continues to transit the region, additional showers will develop throughout the afternoon, particularly over the interior and western portions of Puerto Rico. However, significant rainfall accumulations are not anticipated. The weather pattern is expected to remain consistent over the next few days. A broad high-pressure system over the western and central Atlantic will continue to promote breezy easterly to northeasterly winds. Patches of moisture will filter into the area, bringing fast- moving showers to the U.S. Virgin Islands and eastern Puerto Rico during the morning hours, followed by afternoon development across western Puerto Rico. During this time, precipitable water (PWAT) values will remain near or slightly above normal, ranging from 1.30 to 1.50 inches. By Friday night and into the weekend, a broad patch of moisture is forecast to arrive. These broader moisture patches will elevate PWAT values to between 1.75 and 1.90 inches. This will likely increase the frequency of fast-moving showers over windward areas during the overnight and morning hours, while enhancing afternoon shower development across western and southwestern Puerto Rico. Temperatures at the 925 mb level are expected to remain at seasonal values, and low concentrations of Saharan Dust will continue to filter through the region through at least the end of the week. && .Long Term(Saturday through next Tuesday)... Issued at 218 PM AST Wed Mar 4 2026 A broad and strong surface high pressure system over the western Atlantic will remain the dominant feature through early next week while gradually shifting northeast. This pattern will maintain a tight local pressure gradient across the northeastern Caribbean, supporting persistent easterly winds with minor directional variations. Based on Beaufort scale equivalents, winds will generally range from strong breeze to near gale at times, particularly across coastal waters and exposed areas over the weekend. Aloft, a segment of the subtropical jet will extend across the region, followed by an approaching short-wave trough that is forecast to linger to the west over Hispaniola, promoting gradual cooling aloft and somewhat more favorable upper-level conditions. Moisture will remain above normal for this time of year, keeping the forecast on the wetter side of climatology through the period. However, persistent mid-level dryness should continue to limit vertical development and rainfall efficiency. As a result, shower activity will mainly consist of fast-moving trade wind showers, with brief periods of moderate rainfall possible across windward areas overnight and during the morning hours, followed by isolated afternoon activity across interior and western Puerto Rico. Breezy to windy conditions will remain the primary hazard, contributing to hazardous marine and beach conditions, while only localized ponding in poor drainage areas is expected where showers persist. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 218 PM AST Wed Mar 4 2026 Mainly VFR conds expected thru the period across all TAF sites. E to ENE winds btwn 15-20 kt with gusts 25-30 kt will continue to impact all terminals thru 04/23Z. -SHRA will affect TJSJ/TJPS/TJBQ at times thru 04/23Z and may result in brief MVFR CIGs/VIS. Periods of fast moving trade wind VCSH/-SHRA will continue to affect TJSJ/TISX/TIST/TJBQ, promoting brief MVFR conditions aft 05/06Z. E winds will diminish at 05-12 kt aft 04/23Z. && .MARINE... Issued at 218 PM AST Wed Mar 4 2026 Marine conditions will continue hazardous over the next several days. A series of high pressure systems across the Atlantic will promote fresh to locally strong east-northeasterly winds throughout the forecast period. The latest scatterometer products indicate 10 m winds between 20 and 25 knots across regional waters. Additionally, buoy observations show winds around 20 mph and gusts up to 30 mph, expected to increase later in the afternoon. These conditions will continue to result in choppy to rough seas across most regional waters and passages over the CWA, hazardous for small craft. Small Craft Advisories remain in effect through 6 AM AST Saturday, though these may be extended as breezy to windy conditions will likely persist over the next several days. && .BEACH FORECAST... Issued at 218 PM AST Wed Mar 4 2026 No major changes were introduced to the beach forecast. As mentioned in the previous discussions, breezy to windy conditions in combination with a wind trade swell will continue to result in breaking waves between 6 and 7 feet, hazardous for beachgoers. Hence, a high risk of rip currents remains in effect over northern and eastern beaches of Puerto Rico and St. Croix in the U.S. Virgin Islands. Resident and visitors are encouraged to exercise caution, as life-threatening rip currents will be present along the surf zone. Although the swell will gradually diminish by late Friday, hazardous conditions will like persist this weekend. For additional information and location-specific rip current details, please visit: weather.gov/beach/sju. && .SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PR...High Rip Current Risk through late Friday night for PRZ001-002- 005-008. VI...High Rip Current Risk through late Friday night for VIZ002. AM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM AST Saturday for AMZ711-712-716- 723-726-733-741. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM AST Friday for AMZ735. && $$