AFDSJU Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Juan PR 224 PM AST Thu Jan 22 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 224 PM AST Thu Jan 22 2026 * Hazardous marine and beach conditions will persist, with dangerous seas and life-threatening rip currents posing a risk to small craft and swimmers. While current advisories extend through late Friday night, hazards may continue into Saturday or beyond. * Breezy to windy conditions over the next few days may cause unsecured outdoor items to be blown around or damaged. Winds are expected to ease Friday through Sunday, though periods of gusty winds will still occur. * Frequent showers and a few thunderstorms are expected tonight into Friday, with lightning, brief gusty winds, and locally reduced visibility possible. && .Short Term(This evening through Saturday)... Issued at 224 PM AST Thu Jan 22 2026 Variably cloudy skies prevailed today, with frequent trade-wind showers moving quickly across the region. Showers affected northern and eastern Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra, as well as the U.S. Virgin Islands, with some activity reaching the central interior of Puerto Rico. Shower coverage increased through the morning as moisture moved in, though activity remained fast-moving. Radar-estimated rainfall peaked around 1.5 to 1.75 inches in isolated areas of north-central Puerto Rico, while amounts across the U.S. Virgin Islands were generally lower, up to around a quarter of an inch. Minimum temperatures ranged from the low 60s to mid-70s across Puerto Rico and the low to mid-70s across Vieques, Culebra, and the U.S. Virgin Islands, while maximum temperatures so far peaked in the mid-80s. Trade winds remained strong, with sustained speeds near 2025 mph and gusts of 3040 mph, especially across coastal and exposed areas. A strong subtropical ridge over the central Atlantic will continue to control the low-level wind pattern, maintaining strong trade winds that pull above-normal moisture into the area and support fast- moving showers early in the period. Winds will ease to moderate to fresh by Friday, allowing showers to become slower-moving and less frequent, before increasing again to fresh to locally strong by Saturday. A weak surface trough lingering just west of the region will help focus moisture and support scattered showers with a few isolated thunderstorms. Aloft, cooling mid-level temperatures and strong winds on the left side of a departing upper-level trough will help sustain cloud cover and allow showers and isolated thunderstorms where low-level forcing is present. By Saturday night, another jet maximum associated with an approaching short-wave trough will move toward the area, allowing mid-level temperatures to cool again as the pattern transitions toward a more patchy moisture distribution. Expect shower activity to be most frequent tonight into Friday, dominated by trade-wind showers affecting windward coastal waters and areas first, with occasional showers reaching farther inland. Periods of scattered to locally numerous showers are expected, with isolated thunderstorms possible, especially across eastern Puerto Rico, Vieques, Culebra, and the U.S. Virgin Islands. Lightning, brief gusty winds, and locally reduced visibility will be the primary hazards. Overall risk levels remain limited, with a limited risk of excessive rainfall and lightning tonight into Friday, followed by a transition to mainly wind-related hazards as drier and more patchy conditions develop late Saturday night into Sunday. && .Long Term(Sunday through next Wednesday)... Issued at 224 PM AST Thu Jan 22 2026 Improved weather conditions are forecast to start the next week as the moisture field from the surface troughs will be west of the region by early Sunday and drier air advects over the islands. Patches of drier and moist air will then result in seasonal (<1.50 in) to below seasonal (<1.20 in) PWAT values over the area. Current model guidance suggests that the most ample patches of drier air will reach the area on Sunday and Thursday, but uncertainty remains. A series of high pressure systems and frontal lows will move over the Atlantic during the period, resulting in generally easterly flow with variations of ESE and ENE flow, possibly on Wednesday and Thursday, respectively. This will steer passing showers over windward areas, particularly during the morning and overnight hours. Most available moisture will be limited to below 800 mb. Subsidence in the mid-to-upper levels of the atmosphere will inhibit shower development; however, localized effects may still induce convective showers, though no flooding is anticipated. Model guidance suggests that an upper trough will move east of the region on Monday providing some instability. 925 mb temperatures will remain at seasonal values with overnight patchy fog also forecast over areas of the interior. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 224 PM AST Thu Jan 22 2026 Passing SHRA/VCSH, w/ iso TSRA psbl, will affect most TAF sites thru the pd, resulting in brief CIG/VIS reductions. BKN cigs 015030 psbl at times in SHRA/TSRA, esp late tngt into Fri AM as SHRA covg incrs w/ deeper mstr acrs the area. E winds 1525 kt w/ gusts to 30 kt thru 22/23Z, ocasnly higher nr SHRA/TSRA. Strong low-lvl flow (2530 kt) thru FL005010 may result in turb and wind impacts. Winds weaken to 812 kt btw 22/23Z23/13Z, then incrs again to 1520 kt aftwd. && .MARINE... Issued at 224 PM AST Thu Jan 22 2026 Fresh to locally strong easterly winds driven by strong Atlantic high pressure will maintain hazardous marine conditions across the regional waters. Small Craft Advisories are expected to remain in effect through at least Saturday morning. A surface trough moving across the area, combined with the strong wind flow, will support frequent showers, with a few isolated thunderstorms possible, and locally reduced visibility at times. Winds may briefly ease Friday into Saturday, then are expected to strengthen again Saturday night into early next week, maintaining choppy seas. Pulses of northerly swell may affect the local waters early to mid-week, potentially leading to another increase in seas. && .BEACH FORECAST... Issued at 224 PM AST Thu Jan 22 2026 A high risk of rip currents will remain in effect across the northern and eastern beaches of Puerto Rico, Culebra, and the U.S. Virgin Islands due to strong easterly winds and hazardous marine conditions. These fresh to locally strong winds are producing choppy seas and elevated breaking waves along exposed beaches, maintaining dangerous rip current conditions. The high rip current risk is expected through at least late Friday night and may extend into Saturday. Breezy to locally windy conditions may also lead to blowing unsecured objects along the coast. A moderate rip current risk will persist across western and southern beaches of Puerto Rico, and will likely continue once the high risk elsewhere subsides. && .SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PR...High Rip Current Risk through late Friday night for PRZ001-002- 005-008-012. VI...High Rip Current Risk through late Friday night for VIZ001-002. AM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM AST Saturday for AMZ711. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM AST Friday for AMZ712-723. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM AST Friday for AMZ716-726-733- 741. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM AST this evening for AMZ735. && $$