AFDSJU Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Juan PR 214 PM AST Tue Jan 27 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 214 PM AST Tue Jan 27 2026 * Dangerous marine and coastal conditions continue through tonight. A northerly swell will maintain a High Rip Current Risk and Small Craft Advisory for Atlantic-exposed beaches and offshore waters. * Hazardous Marine and Coastal conditions are likely to return this weekend as another long-period northerly swell arrives across the USVI and PR Atlantic Waters and Caribbean Passages. Scattered showers will affect the islands daily. * The highest coverage is expected over western Puerto Rico each afternoon, leading to localized ponding on roads. * Confidence is increasing for a more active weather pattern this weekend into early next week. Tropical moisture will bring a medium chance for locally heavy rainfall and isolated thunderstorms. && .Short Term(This evening through Thursday)... Issued at 214 PM AST Tue Jan 27 2026 A surface disturbance moved across the islands today, increasing cloudiness and bringing moderate to locally heavy rainfall to eastern Puerto Rico and the surrounding waters of the US Virgin Islands. While the bulk of this weather activity remained over the US Virgin Islands, several showers moved inland. Daytime temperatures reached the mid-80s along the coast, with isolated areas climbing into the upper 80s, particularly across eastern St. Croix and southwestern Puerto Rico. Local winds prevailed from the east at 10 to 15 mph, with higher gusts recorded near eastern PR and the USVI. This afternoon, residents of the US Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico can expect mostly calm conditions as a drier air mass arrives. However, western Puerto Rico may see some shower activity as a weak weather disturbance moves westward across that half of the island. Tonight, an easterly to northeasterly wind flow will continue to bring in drier air. High pressure in the middle levels of the atmosphere will further limit rainfall. However, we cannot rule out occasional, fast-moving isolated showers affecting windward areas of Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands. On Wednesday and Thursday, a high-pressure ridge will maintain a generally stable atmosphere. However, patches of moisture drifting into the region will trigger rounds of showers, particularly from Wednesday morning through the afternoon and again late Thursday night as another surface disturbance arrives. Temperature Outlook While daily temperatures are expected to remain near normal for this time of year, weather models indicate a warming trend beginning Thursday and continuing through the end of the week. && .LONG TERM...(Friday through Tuesday)... Issued at 444 AM AST Tue Jan 27 2026 The synoptic pattern will remain generally unchanged through the long-term period, with a frontal boundary approaching the region from the northwest. Southerly to southeasterly low-level flow ahead of this boundary will continue, promoting above normal temperatures across Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. Based on the latest global model guidance, Friday is expected to be the relatively less active day of the period, as deeper moisture remains south of the area. Conditions are forecast to become progressively wetter over the weekend as southerly flow strengthens and begins to pull tropical moisture over the region, earlier than indicated in previous model cycles. Precipitable water values are forecast to increase beginning Saturday, rising from near 1.3 inches on Friday to near or above 2.0 inches by Saturday and Sunday, which is well above normal for this time of year. This increase in moisture will support higher shower coverage and rainfall intensity, particularly during the weekend and into early next week. At upper levels, the region will be positioned between an upper- level trough to the northwest and a ridge to the southeast, with favorable dynamics aloft depending on the exact placement and evolution of the trough. Nevertheless, sufficient instability may remain in the vicinity, and when combined with daytime heating, local effects, and sea breeze convergence, isolated thunderstorms cannot be ruled out, mainly during the afternoon hours across interior and northwest/northern Puerto Rico. Locally heavy rainfall will be possible with the strongest convection. Potential impacts include ponding of water in urban and poorly drained areas, as well as localized urban and small stream flooding, particularly from Saturday through Monday. Gusty winds may also accompany heavier showers and any isolated thunderstorms. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 214 PM AST Tue Jan 27 2026 Mainly VFR conditions are expected to prevail. VCSH or -SHRA are more likely across TJBQ and VCSH over TJPS over the next few hours. Some periods of reduced VIS and low cigs can be anticipated. During the overnight period into the morning, passing showers are expected across TISX. Aft28/15Z, VCSH are possible across TJPS and TJBQ again. Winds from the E-SE at around 12-14 kts generally becoming lighter after 27/23Z, then picking up again around 28/13-14Z. && .MARINE... Issued at 214 PM AST Tue Jan 27 2026 A surface high-pressure will lead to a moderate to occasionally strong easterly wind flow, resulting in choppy seas across the regional waters. This high pressure will keep the frontal boundary positioned to the west of the Northeast Caribbean, where it will gradually dissipate by the end of the workweek. A northerly swell will continue to affect the local Atlantic waters and Caribbean passages through this evening, with additional swells expected on Thursday. Another long-period northeasterly swell will arrive over the weekend or early next week, further worsening local conditions. && .BEACH FORECAST... Issued at 214 PM AST Tue Jan 27 2026 A pulse of northerly swell has been moving into the Atlantic waters today. The San Juan buoy showed around 4 feet at 9 to 11 seconds over the last hours. As a result, the High Risk of rip currents continues through at least this evening for the north-facing beaches of Puerto Rico. Elsewhere, a moderate risk remains in place. Tonight, a moderate risk will generally dominate across most local beaches, except across southern-exposed areas. A similar pattern will likely continue the rest of the week, but continue to monitor conditions for any update or adjustment as some additional energy from a swell can approach the region around Thursday. Then, hazardous coastal conditions are likely late this weekend into early next week, as another stronger long-period northerly swell arrives. Beachgoers are encouraged to exercise caution at all times. For localized and updated rip current information, visit weather.gov/beach/sju. && .SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PR...High Rip Current Risk until 6 PM AST this evening for PRZ001-002- 005-008. VI...None. AM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM AST this evening for AMZ711. && $$