AFDSJU Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Juan PR 226 AM AST Thu Apr 2 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 225 AM AST Thu Apr 2 2026 * Life-threatening rip currents will continue along north- and east-facing beaches through the weekend. Dangerous surf will gradually subside after today, but conditions will remain hazardous. Stay out of the water at high-risk areas. * Hazardous seas will persist for small craft through the weekend. Conditions will remain unfavorable across local waters. * Showers and isolated thunderstorms will develop each afternoon, becoming more widespread and stronger over the weekend. Flooding risk will increase, along with lightning and gusty winds. * Breezy to locally windy conditions will continue, with stronger gusts in exposed areas and near showers. && .Short Term(Today through Saturday)... Issued at 225 AM AST Thu Apr 2 2026 A strengthening surface high over the western Atlantic will maintain breezy east-northeasterly flow across the region today, gradually veering through the period. Overnight and early morning conditions remained consistent with previous days, with frequent passing showers moving southwestward across northern and eastern coastal areas and occasionally spreading inland, confirming the forecast remains on track. This pattern will continue today, bringing periods of passing showers during the morning and overnight, with afternoon convection developing across interior and southwestern Puerto Rico due to local effects. Isolated thunderstorms are possible. Tonight, another band of above-normal moisture will move across the region, increasing shower activity across northern and eastern Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. From Friday into Saturday, a wetter and more unstable pattern will develop as winds veer from the east to east-southeast and deeper moisture spreads across the region. A nearby upper-level trough and a weak or absent trade wind cap will support more efficient shower and thunderstorm development. Expect more organized clusters of showers, followed by enhanced afternoon convection expanding across the interior and shifting from western to northwestern Puerto Rico. Thunderstorms will remain mostly isolated but more frequent than earlier in the period. Winds will remain moderate to fresh, at times locally strong, helping showers move quickly while enhancing moisture transport and convergence. Orographic effects will support additional development downwind of El Yunque and interior areas, with activity drifting west-northwest. The main concerns through the period will be gusty winds, localized flooding, and thunderstorm hazards. Sustained winds of 15 to 20 mph with gusts up to 25 to 30 mph are expected, especially across exposed coastal areas, higher elevations, and near showers. From Friday onward, deeper moisture and repeated activity may lead to ponding of water on roads, urban flooding, and minor flooding of small streams, particularly across western and northwestern Puerto Rico. Thunderstorms may produce lightning and locally strong wind gusts. Temperatures will remain near to slightly below normal due to cloud cover and cool advection, with highs in the 80s along the coasts and cooler conditions at higher elevations. && .Long Term(Sunday through Thursday)... Issued at 225 AM AST Thu Apr 2 2026 A warmer and more humid pattern will support increasing afternoon convection and a rising flood risk through midweek. By Sunday onward, the surface pattern will be dominated by high pressure migrating eastward into the Atlantic, promoting a shift in low-level winds from easterly to southeasterly, which will persist through most of the period. A mid- to upper-level shortwave trough will induce a surface trough northwest of the region, supporting continued advection and pooling of tropical moisture into the area. Based on the latest guidance, precipitable water values are forecast to slightly decrease on Sunday but remain near to above normal for this time of year, around 1.6 to 1.7 inches. From Monday through Wednesday, as the induced disturbance drifts northward, increasing low-level moisture from the Caribbean will spread across the islands, with precipitable water values rising to around 1.9 to 2.0 inches. Given this pattern and the latest model guidance, the heaviest rainfall is expected to remain north of the region over the Atlantic waters. However, scattered passing showers will affect the waters, the U.S. Virgin Islands, and windward sections of Puerto Rico during the overnight and early morning hours, followed by more widespread and better-organized afternoon convection across interior and northwestern Puerto Rico. Local effects will enhance shower and thunderstorm development each day. This pattern, combined with warm and humid conditions, will increase the risk of urban and small stream flooding, with flood risk ranging from limited to elevated. Temperatures are expected to trend warmer at the beginning of the long-term period, with 925 mb values approaching the 75th percentile, or about two standard deviations above normal. This will further support instability and convective potential each afternoon. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 225 AM AST Thu Apr 2 2026 Conds wl remain similar thru the pd. SHRA wl cont to affect windward TAF sites ovrnght into 02/14Z, with pd MVFR conds (cigs 020030, vsby 35SM). TJPS less impacted early, but SHRA psbl aft 02/17Z with brief MVFR, followed by aftn TSRA dvlp ovr interior/SW PR psbl impacting the terminal. SHRA wl redevelop ovr windward TAF sites aft 02/22Z. NE winds 1015 kt ovrnght incr to 1520 kt g2530 kt aft sunrise, remaining breezy/gusty thru the pd. && .MARINE... Issued at 215 AM AST Thu Apr 2 2026 Hazardous marine conditions will persist through the weekend under a strong Atlantic high-pressure system. Fresh to locally strong northeasterly winds combined with a north to northeasterly swell will maintain hazardous, choppy to rough seas across regional waters, even as winds gradually veer easterly. Frequent trade wind showers will move across the Atlantic waters and local passages, while isolated to scattered afternoon thunderstorms may develop over coastal waters, especially from the southwest to northwest of Puerto Rico, drifting west-northwest with the prevailing flow, with a slight increase in coverage over the weekend. Small Craft Advisories remain in effect for the Atlantic waters and local passages through Sunday afternoon, with hazardous conditions likely to persist into early next week. && .BEACH FORECAST... Issued at 225 AM AST Thu Apr 2 2026 Life-threatening coastal conditions will persist across Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands through the weekend as a long- period northerly to northeasterly swell combines with strong winds to impact local waters. This combination will affect exposed coastlines, resulting in a High Surf Advisory, a High Risk of Rip Currents, and beach erosion. The most hazardous conditions are expected along the northwest, northern, and east-facing beaches of Puerto Rico, including Culebra and Vieques, as well as the U.S. Virgin Islands. The High Surf Advisory remains in effect until 6 PM AST Thursday, while a High Risk of Rip Currents will persist through Sunday afternoon. Beachgoers and inexperienced surfers are strongly urged to stay out of the water. Avoid walking along rocks or jetties, as large breaking waves can sweep individuals into the sea without warning. Always heed the advice of lifeguards and follow posted beach flags and signs. Access to hazardous beaches may be limited, and individuals should follow all posted warnings and safety guidance. In addition to surf hazards, visitors should remain weather aware. Afternoon showers and isolated thunderstorms may develop, particularly over western Puerto Rico. These storms can produce dangerous lightning; if you hear thunder, seek shelter immediately inside a sturdy building. && .SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PR...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday afternoon for PRZ001-002- 005-008-010-012-013. High Surf Advisory until 6 PM AST this evening for PRZ001-002- 005-008-010-012-013. VI...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday afternoon for VIZ001-002. High Surf Advisory until 6 PM AST this evening for VIZ001-002. AM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM AST Sunday for AMZ711-712-716- 723-741-742. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM AST Friday for AMZ726. && $$