AFDSJU Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Juan PR 408 AM AST Sun Mar 1 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 308 AM AST Sun Mar 1 2026 * Breezy to windy conditions are expected across Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands through much of the week, especially late week. Unsecured items could blow around. * Temperatures will range near to slightly above normal today and Monday. More typical March temperatures return by midweek as stronger northeasterly winds develop. * A moderate risk of life-threatening rip currents is expected across most local beaches through much of the week, especially late in the week as winds and seas increase, and the risk will become high. Avoid swimming at unguarded beaches. * Hazardous marine conditions are expected across the Offshore Atlantic and Caribbean Waters, as well as in local passages. Fresh to strong winds will produce choppy to rough seas. Inexperienced mariners should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions. && .Short Term(Today through Tuesday)... Issued at 308 AM AST Sun Mar 1 2026 Overnight, the breezy southeast winds brought a pocket of moisture, with clouds and showers across PR. Although we did not observe flooding problems, showery weather was observed. Meanwhile, the US Virgin Islands observed mainly calm weather, with most of the rain activity over local waters. While writing this discussion, we observed temperatures in the upper 70s across the US Virgin Islands, in the mid- or low-70s along the coast, and in the mid-60s and even cooler across the higher elevations and valleys. Weather Flow stations reported winds were mainly from the east-southeast at 10 to 25 mph near some stations across the USVI, east and south PR, including Culebra. The Azores High will influence our local weather pattern, leading to breezy to occasionally windy ESE-SE winds over the next few days. A more east-northeasterly wind flow will return around Tuesday. Still, weather models suggest that winds at the 925 MB level will be above normal, approximately in the 75th percentile of local climatology for this month. While we can expect periods of sunshine or mostly clear skies, these breezy winds will also bring in pockets of moisture daily, resulting in quick-moving showers, particularly in windward areas. By the afternoon, due to the southeast wind flow, we may see showers developing in the northwest quadrant of Puerto Rico and downwind of the US Virgin Islands in the form of streamers, and more to the west-southwest on Tuesday as winds tend to become more east to northeast. Consequently, we anticipate periods of moderate to locally heavy rain, which could lead to water accumulation in various parts of the islands. NBM suggests more frequent showers on Monday with the arrival of a surge of moisture. Model guidance indicates that temperatures today and Monday are expected to be near or slightly above normal, as shown by the 925 MB climatology. This trend suggests that both Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands may experience warmer-than-normal temperatures during these days. Starting Tuesday, however, a shift to more typical March temperatures is anticipated as stronger northeasterly winds develop. && .Long Term(Wednesday through Sunday)... Issued at 308 AM AST Sun Mar 1 2026 .LONG TERM...Wednesday through Sunday... By midweek, a series of high-pressure systems will remain over the Atlantic, maintaining a prevailing northeasterly wind flow throughout the forecast period. The pressure gradient across the region will tighten, resulting in breezy to windy conditions. Consequently, winds will be the primary weather concern during the long-term period. Wind risk levels are expected to fluctuate from limited to elevated, particularly along coastal areas of the islands. Residents are advised to secure loose outdoor objects, as items may be displaced or damaged by strong winds. The latest model guidance indicates that moisture content will remain fragmented and variable on Wednesday and Thursday, fluctuating between near-seasonal levels and slightly above normal as patches of moisture move within the trade wind flow. Precipitable water values are forecast to range between 1.20 and 1.60 inches. This pattern will support frequent passing showers, especially during the overnight and morning hours across windward areas, followed by limited afternoon convection over interior and western Puerto Rico each day. Showers are expected to be fast-moving, reducing the flood risk. From Thursday night into Friday, moisture levels and upper-level dynamics are expected to become more favorable as reflected in higher rain chances, potentially leading to an increase in the frequency or intensity of showers Friday into the weekend. Model guidance suggest PWAT values will become more stable, around 1.6 inches each day. Additionally, moisture slightly increase into the mid-levels of the atmosphere. Although strong winds should limit rainfall accumulation and reduce flood potential, current data supports a limited flood threat for eastern Puerto Rico on Friday morning. Showers may result in ponding of water in areas of poor drainage. Across the U.S. Virgin Islands, mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies are expected to prevail, with passing showers primarily during the nighttime and early morning hours. Winds will also remain a primary hazard throughout the long-term period across the islands. The 925 mb temperature outlook suggests temperatures will be near the average for this time of the year based on climatological data. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 308 AM AST Sun Mar 1 2026 VFR conditions will prevail today. However, breezy winds will give way to gusty conditions, and occasional pockets of showers will move across the local flying area, affecting TAF sites. During the afternoon, between 01/15-23z, some showers will develop across the interior and northwest under the southeasterly wind flow. Expect ESE winds at 5-15 kt overnight with higher gusts, and after 01/13z at 10-20 kt with gusts between 20 and 30 kt, or even higher. && .MARINE... Issued at 308 AM AST Sun Mar 1 2026 The broad surface high across most of the Atlantic will continue to tighten the local pressure gradient, promoting fresh to locally strong east-southeast winds. Although this high will remain in place, another surface high will build over the western to central Atlantic from Monday into midweek, sustaining fresh to strong winds. Expect winds to become east-northeasterly by midweek. These conditions will maintain choppy to rough seas across the regional waters through much of the week, especially across the Atlantic and Caribbean Offshore waters and local passages. Small craft should continue to exercise caution across all waters. && .BEACH FORECAST... Issued at 308 AM AST Sun Mar 1 2026 Breezy conditions will persist through much of the week. The breezy to locally windy conditions, resulting in choppy to rough seas, increasing the risk of life-threatening rip currents. Overall, a moderate risk of rip currents is expected across much of the local beaches in PR and the USVI. Thus, life-threatening rip currents remain possible, particularly near piers, jetties, and reef channels. Looking ahead, confused seas due to fresh to strong trades and a northeast to easterly swell will likely further deteriorate coastal conditions and potentially increase the risk of dangerous rip currents, particularly along north and east-facing beaches from the middle of the week onward. && .SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PR...None. VI...None. AM...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM AST Monday for AMZ711-723-733. Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM AST Monday for AMZ741. && $$