AFDSJU Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Juan PR 303 PM AST Fri Feb 27 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 257 PM AST Fri Feb 27 2026 * A high risk of rip currents will continue tonight for the north- facing beaches of Puerto Rico, Culebra, St. Thomas and St. John. Up to a moderate risk is forecast by tomorrow morning through early next workweek. * Breezy east to east-southeast winds will continue to steer a patch of moisture over the area tonight. Drier air will then filter in tomorrow, Saturday, followed by additional patches of moisture on Sunday. A warming trend will also take place this weekend. * Breezy to windy conditions will continue into next week, becoming more pronounced during the second half of the workweek. * Although the northeasterly swell is subsiding, fresh to locally strong winds will sustain hazardous seas tonight. Choppy to rough seas and fresh to locally strong winds will create dangerous conditions for small craft throughout much of the forecast period. && .Short Term(This evening through Sunday)... Issued at 257 PM AST Fri Feb 27 2026 Mainly fair conditions persisted in the morning hours, with passing showers moving across the regional waters into the eastern half of Puerto Rico, Vieques, Culebra, and the U.S. Virgin Islands. Seasonal minimum temperatures were observed today, as CWOP/ASOS/AWOS stations across urban and coastal areas reported minimums in the 70s, with isolated areas in the upper 60s. On the other hand, higher elevations remained in the low to mid 60s, with isolated areas such as the Adjuntas Substation reporting in the mid 50s (54 degrees Fahrenheit). Winds gradually increased during the morning, with the highest registration by the ASOS at the Henry E Rohlsen International Airport in St. Croix (30 mph). Passing showers are expected to continue across the islands the rest of the afternoon, and based on the latest HIRES solutions, rainfall accumulations should remain limited. Expect puddles over the road and brief periods of reduced visibility. The short-term forecast remains on track. The surface high pressure across the Central Atlantic will continue to promote E winds for the rest of today, veering from the SE Saturday and Sunday. This high will keep strengthening, increasing the pressure gradient and resulting in breezy to locally windy conditions (winds between 15 - 25 mph, higher gusts) for the next few days. In the mid levels, the ridge will dominate the weather pattern in the short-term, warming 500 mb temperatures (around -6 degrees Celsius), and enhancing stability aloft. Tonight will likely be the wettest period of the forecast, as showers will continue to move across windward sections through early tomorrow. Afterwards, a drier airmass should filter into the region, with a typical weather pattern prevailing for the rest of the short term. Although occasional patches of moisture will likely move across the CWA, rainfall accumulations should remain limited due to fast-moving showers, with a low flooding potential. Under a SE wind flow, warmer than normal temperatures are expected on Saturday and Sunday. Nevertheless, the heat threat will remain low. && .Long Term(Monday through next Thursday)... Issued at 327 AM AST Fri Feb 27 2026 A broad surface high over the north-central Atlantic will continue to dominate the regional pattern through late week, maintaining a tight pressure gradient and breezy to windy low-level flow across Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. Winds will remain generally easterly Monday into Tuesday, shifting to east to east-northeast by Wednesday and Thursday as an additional high builds into the western Atlantic and reinforces the gradient. Temperatures will remain near seasonal normals. Moisture will remain variable but generally above normal early in the week, with embedded patches of deeper moisture moving within the trade wind flow Monday and Tuesday. This will support frequent passing showers, particularly during the overnight and morning hours across windward sectors, followed by afternoon convection over interior and western Puerto Rico each day. As winds become more east- northeasterly late in the period, shower activity will favor eastern and northeastern Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. Periods of moderate to locally heavy rainfall may occur where showers repeatedly move over the same locations, especially Monday and Tuesday, resulting in a limited risk of minor urban and small stream flooding. A gradual drying trend is possible late Wednesday into Thursday. Nevertheless, passing showers remain possible. Breezy to windy conditions will persist, particularly from late Tuesday onward, with gusty periods likely. Overall, the primary hazards through Thursday will be the increase in wind speeds and a limited flooding risk early in the week. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 257 PM AST Fri Feb 27 2026 VFR conds will prevail across all terminals, with VCSH through most of the TAF prd. -SHRA/+SHRA will continue across the islands, with a potential for -TSRA over W PR. VCTS for JBQ will cont through 27/23z, AMDs will be issue if required. E winds will weaken tngt, btwn 6 - 11 kt, and may become VRB for JBQ by 28/02z. Winds will increase from the SE, btwn 15 - 18 kt and gusts up to 28 kt, by 28/13-14z. && .MARINE... Issued at 257 PM AST Fri Feb 27 2026 A subsiding long-period northwesterly swell will continue affecting the Atlantic waters and local passages tonight and early tomorrow. A broad surface high over the Atlantic will, however, continue to tighten the local pressure gradient and promote up to fresh to locally strong east to east-southeast winds. Although this high will move eastward during the weekend; another broad surface high will move over the western to central Atlantic to start the next workweek, sustaining up to up to fresh to strong winds E-ESE winds backing to become more easterly as we head towards midweek. This will in turn sustain choppy to rough seas over the regional waters through the workweek, especially midweek onwards. && .BEACH FORECAST... Issued at 257 PM AST Fri Feb 27 2026 A high risk of rip currents (life-threatening rip currents are likely in the surf zone) will continue tonight for the northern coastline of Puerto Rico, Culebra, and St. Thomas, St. John. A moderate risk of rip currents (life-threatening rip currents are possible in the surf zone) will be in effect tonight for St. Croix, Vieques, southeastern PR and southwestern PR. By tomorrow and through the weekend, up to a moderate risk of rip currents will be in effect for most of the local beaches. The high risk of rip currents is forecast to return on the second half of the next workweek as fresh to strong easterly winds affect the region. For safety, always check local conditions before swimming. Remember to swim near a lifeguard, never swim alone, and, if caught in a rip current, remain calm, do not exhaust yourself, and stay afloat while waiting for help. Even if the risk of rip currents is low, life- threatening rip currents often occur in the vicinity of groins, jetties, reefs, and piers. For more information, visit: weather.gov/beach/sju. && .SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PR...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for PRZ001-002-005- 008-012. High Rip Current Risk until 6 PM AST this evening for PRZ010. VI...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for VIZ001. High Rip Current Risk until 6 PM AST this evening for VIZ002. AM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM AST Saturday for AMZ711. Small Craft Advisory until midnight AST tonight for AMZ712-716- 723. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM AST this evening for AMZ726-733- 741. && $$