AFDSJU Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED National Weather Service San Juan PR 336 AM AST Sun Feb 8 2026 Updated SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES section to include High Surf Advisories. ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 332 AM AST Sun Feb 8 2026 * Showers associated with a frontal boundary will continue to impact northern and northeastern Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands, with periods of heavier rainfall increasing the risk of localized flooding, particularly in urban and poorly drained areas. * Breezy northerly winds behind the front will affect exposed coastal and elevated areas, contributing to unsettled conditions and pushing showers inland, with increasing impacts over the next couple of days. * Hazardous marine and coastal conditions are ongoing and will worsen, as a stronger north to north-northwest swell moves in during the first half of the week, significantly increasing the risk of dangerous seas and life-threatening rip currents, and localized coastal flooding. * Cooler-than-normal temperatures will persist through early next week, with the coldest conditions at night, including across higher elevations and some coastal and urban areas. && .Short Term(Today through Tuesday)... Issued at 332 AM AST Sun Feb 8 2026 Scattered to locally numerous showers moved into northern Puerto Rico overnight as a frontal boundary crossed the region, bringing increased cloud cover. Radar estimates since midnight showed rainfall totals peaking near 1.5 inches across north-central Puerto Rico, with around 1 inch over parts of the San Juan metro area. Shower activity affected much of the northern coast and eastern Puerto Rico since around 8 PM, including the U.S. Virgin Islands and local islands. Overnight temperatures dropped into the lower 60s across higher elevations, while mid-70s prevailed across the U.S. Virgin Islands, with a few locations possibly dropping another 13 degrees before sunrise. Winds behind the showers shifted to a northwesterly flow, generally 510 mph, with gusts near 20 mph in and near heavier showers. The frontal boundary will continue crossing the area today and will move southeast while remaining close enough to influence local weather. As high pressure strengthens over the western Atlantic behind the front, the local pressure gradient will tighten, leading to gradually increasing northerly winds. Showers will persist along and near the boundary, allowing periods of rain to continue across northeastern and eastern Puerto Rico, the U.S. Virgin Islands, and the local islands throughout the day. The strengthening northerly flow will push showers inland from the Atlantic waters and occasionally into interior sections. While limited convection over land will remain possible later today, it is not expected to be significant. Heavier showers may occur at times, with the highest rainfall potential over eastern Puerto Rico and Saint Croix. Flooding impacts will remain localized, though brief urban and poorly drained flooding will be possible where showers persist. Wind impacts will remain limited and localized today, mainly affecting exposed coastal areas, while temperatures will continue to trend cooler today and tonight. By Monday and Tuesday, high pressure will continue strengthening and shifting eastward across the western Atlantic, becoming the dominant feature and tightening the local pressure gradient. This will result in increasing winds, which will become a more significant hazard, especially during this period. Winds will veer from north-northeasterly to northeasterly on Monday, then strengthen from the northeast to east-northeast by Tuesday, with higher wind speeds expected across elevated terrain and exposed coastal areas. While overall moisture will gradually decrease, periods of showers will remain possible across the U.S. Virgin Islands and parts of northern and northeastern Puerto Rico, where localized flooding concerns may persist, particularly across Saint Croix. Cooler-than-normal temperatures will continue through Monday and Tuesday. && .Long Term(Wednesday through Sunday)... Issued at 332 AM AST Sun Feb 8 2026 A building high-pressure system over the western Atlantic and a stationary frontal boundary to the east will maintain moderate to locally fresh northeasterly winds through late Wednesday. As the high pressure shifts toward the eastern Atlantic, winds will gradually veer from the southeast. This shift will lift lingering moisture associated with the remnants of the frontal boundary from Caribbean waters into the region from Thursday through at least Saturday. On Thursday, as moisture levels from the frontal remnants increase, precipitable water (PWAT) values are expected to rise from below- normal levels of 0.80 inches to near 1.75 inches (above climatological normals). Wind speeds are also expected to decrease as they transition from the southeast. Under this scenario, showers are anticipated over portions of eastern and southern Puerto Rico, as well as the U.S. Virgin Islands, during the morning hours. This will be followed by afternoon convective activity across northern and northwestern Puerto Rico, including the San Juan metro area. This activity poses a limited flooding risk, with hazards including ponding of water on roadways and in low-drainage areas, and a low chance of urban and small-stream flooding. By the end of the period, another frontal boundary and its associated pre-frontal trough will approach, once again increasing the potential for rainfall across the region. Temperatures at the 925 mb level will remain below climatological levels through the first half of the long-term period, before rising on Friday in response to the southerly wind flow and abundant moisture. Consequently, warmer temperatures are expected to return by next weekend. Residents and visitors are advised to monitor local weather updates and plan accordingly, particularly if attending outdoor pre- Valentine`s Day celebrations. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 332 AM AST Sun Feb 8 2026 SHRA will affect TJSJ, TJBQ, and USVI TAF sites thru 08/13Z, resulting in brief MVFR cigs/vsbys due to lower CIGS/VIS. VFR will prevail elsewhere with gradual improvement as the FROPA moves SE, though SHRA will persist across the USVI thru the day and isosct aftn SHRA may develop over PR terminals with limited impacts. Winds 510 kt overnight, increasing to 1216 kt after ~08/13Z, becoming mainly N, with higher gusts psbl thru the day. && .MARINE... Issued at 324 AM AST Sun Feb 8 2026 A cold front moving over the region will bring showers, while a surface high pressure moving off the US coast will begin to yield moderate to fresh northerly winds today. In the meantime, a northwest swell will create hazardous seas across the Atlantic waters and Mona Passage through the weekend. Then, a larger, long period northwest swell will exarcerbate marine conditions by Monday. Increasing northerly winds are expected early in the workweek, as the high moving over the southwestern Atlantic into the central Atlantic strengthens. The combination of the large swell with stronger winds will promote hazardous seas across the rest of local waters through at least midweek. && .BEACH FORECAST... Issued at 332 AM AST Sun Feb 8 2026 Rough surf and life-threatening rip currents are expected to prevail through midweek across the west, north, and east facing beaches of the islands. High surf conditions (high surf producing localized beach erosion and dangerous swimming conditions) and coastal flooding are possible on Monday and Tuesday as a larger, long-period northwesterly swell reaches the region and seas build between 8 and 12 feet at around 13 to 15 seconds. High surf conditions can persist throughout midweek. High surf and coastal flood advisories will likely be issued on Sunday. Beachgoers are urged to continue monitoring forecast updates and heed all local advisories, warnings, and guidance from lifeguards and local officials as conditions deteriorate. && .SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PR...High Rip Current Risk through Wednesday afternoon for PRZ001-002- 005-008-010-012. High Surf Advisory from 6 AM Monday to 6 PM AST Tuesday for PRZ001-002-005-008-010-012. VI...High Rip Current Risk through Wednesday afternoon for VIZ001. High Surf Advisory from 6 AM Monday to 6 PM AST Tuesday for VIZ001. AM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM AST Wednesday for AMZ711-712-741- 742. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM AST Wednesday for AMZ716. && $$