AFDSJU Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Juan PR 254 PM AST Fri Feb 6 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 253 PM AST Fri Feb 6 2026 * High risk of life-threatening rip currents along the north- facing beaches in PR continue tonight, with a moderate chance of life-threatening rip currents across Vieques, Culebra, and the USVI * Weather conditions will deteriorate across PR and the USVI from this weekend into early next week, as an approaching frontal boundary increases moisture and instability, bringing a renewed chance of cooler temperatures, showers, and localized flooding, especially Saturday night into Sunday. * Pulses of northeasterly swell will maintain hazardous coastal conditions for beachgoers through the weekend; however, another, stronger long-period northerly swell will further deteriorate marine and coastal conditions late this weekend into early next week. && .Short Term(This evening through Sunday)... Issued at 253 PM AST Fri Feb 6 2026 Fair weather prevailed over the region today under mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies. As of 2 PM, the TJUA radar detected no precipitation accumulations since 7:24 AM. Current satellite derived precipitable water (PWAT) values indicate 0.87 to 1.11 inches over Puerto Rico (including Vieques and Culebra) and around 1.2 inches over the U.S. Virgin Islands. Under generally light southerly steering flow, drier air from the Caribbean moved over the region. As of 2 PM, official and unofficial stations report temperatures in the 80s to locally around 90 at lower elevations of the islands, and in the 70s to low 80s at higher elevations of Puerto Rico. 925 mb temperatures will continue above normal this afternoon. A surface high over the central Atlantic will continue to promote a southerly wind flow today, veering to southwesterly later this afternoon. This wind pattern will continue to promote drier air and generally fair weather over the islands throughout at least Saturday morning, with passing showers over some windward sectors and a chance of afternoon showers over northeastern PR. By tomorrow, approaching frontal boundary will continue to promote veering flow from light westerly flow tomorrow morning to northwesterly flow by tomorrow afternoon to then more northerly on Sunday. As the frontal boundary approaches the region from the west and northwest, moisture and PWAT values will gradually increase again by Saturday afternoon. Current model guidance has PWAT values reaching around 1.6 by Saturday afternoon into early Sunday morning, promoting a more humid pattern with showers moving in from the north and developing over the interior prompting a limited flooding risk. A jet stream will also move closer to the region providing additional instability, however 500mb temps will continue warm and 700-500mb lapse rates will continue below normal. A limited flooding risk will also be present early Sunday as the frontal boundary lingers and/or moves over the region. Patchy fog is also forecast over areas of the interior particularly Saturday into Monday. 925mb temperatures will be seasonal tomorrow and below seasonal on Sunday. && .Long Term(Monday through next Thursday)... Issued at 445 AM AST Fri Feb 6 2026 Current model guidance for the start of the next workweek indicates precipitable water values dropping to near seasonal levels as drier air behind the frontal boundary advects into the region. A high-pressure system building across the western Atlantic will continue to promote increased north to northeast winds through midweek as the pressure gradient tightens over the area. Residents can expect wind driven passing showers, particularly across northern and eastern Puerto Rico, Vieques, Culebra, and the USVI. Under this pattern, and as noted in the 925 mb temperature guidance, temperatures will remain below the seasonal average at least through Tuesday. By Wednesday and Thursday, moisture levels are expected to increase slightly as the high shifts farther east into the Atlantic, veering winds from the east to southeast and lifting the remnants of the stationary frontal boundary. This will allow enhanced moisture convergence over the area, likely increasing rain chances and elevating the flood risk across portions of Puerto Rico and the USVI. Additionally, mid to upper-level conditions are expected to become more dynamically favorable, as troughiness will dominate aloft. By the end of the week, more typical conditions are expected, driven by available moisture and local effects under a persistent southeasterly wind flow associated with high pressure across the central to eastern Atlantic, bringing trade wind showers. A mid- level ridge will also begin to establish, bringing increased stability to the region. From midweek through Friday, winds will shift back from the east to southeast, temperatures are expected to warm, and 925 mb guidance shows a sharp increase to above- normal temperatures for that period. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 253 PM AST Fri Feb 6 2026 VFR conditions will persist across the TAF sites. Winds will are S, but veering to the W towards the overnight hours and to the NW by early tomorrow. Winds will decrease to calm and light by 06/23, increasing to around 10 kts by 07/14Z. An approaching frontal boundary will increase shower frequency for northern TAF sites by tomorrow afternoon. && .MARINE... Issued at 253 PM AST Fri Feb 6 2026 No changes to the forecast at this time. A surface high-pressure system extending from the eastern into the central Atlantic, along with an approaching frontal boundary, will continue to promote southwesterly winds across the local waters, veering to the northwest to north on Sunday. Under this pattern, seas will generally range up to 5 feet, with occasional seas up to 6 feet across the offshore Atlantic waters today, improving briefly tonight. For tomorrow, a weak pulse of northwesterly swell will create seas up to 6 feet across the offshore Atlantic waters. A more significant north-northeasterly swell is forecast from Monday into the upcoming workweek, resulting in building seas and increasingly hazardous marine conditions, particularly for small craft operators. Small Craft Advisory conditions are likely to develop across the offshore Atlantic waters beginning Saturday afternoon. && .BEACH FORECAST... Issued at 253 PM AST Fri Feb 6 2026 No changes to the forecast at this time. Hazardous coastal conditions will persist today across north-facing beaches, where a high risk of rip currents remains in effect through the upcoming weekend. A moderate risk of rip currents continues along the south coast. Looking ahead to the upcoming week, deteriorating marine and coastal conditions are expected as a north-northwesterly swell reaches the local waters. This will result in building seas and increasing breaking wave heights, along with longer wave periods, particularly along the north coast. The public is urged to stay out of the water in affected areas and to continue monitoring official forecasts and statements for updates. && .SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PR...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday afternoon for PRZ001-002- 005-008. High Rip Current Risk from Saturday evening through Sunday afternoon for PRZ010. High Rip Current Risk from Sunday morning through Sunday afternoon for PRZ012. VI...High Rip Current Risk from Sunday morning through Sunday afternoon for VIZ001. AM...Small Craft Advisory from noon Saturday to 6 AM AST Sunday for AMZ711. Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM Saturday to 6 AM AST Sunday for AMZ712-741. && $$