AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1038 AM EDT SAT JUL 30 2011

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA AND
THE SOUTHEAST BIG BEND OF FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON WITH HEAT INDICES
ABOVE 110 DEGREES...

.DISCUSSION...12Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A VERY STRONG AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN US. THIS RIDGE HAS MOVED IN FROM THE
EAST SINCE YESTERDAY AND HAS POSITIONED ITSELF RIGHT OVER THE CWA.
14Z SATELLITE SHOWS VERY FEW IF ANY CLOUDS IN THE AREA WITH ALL OBS
SITES READING CLEAR SKIES. THIS IS PUTTING EVERYONE INTO THE UPPER
80S TO LOW 90S JUST AFTER 10 AM. THUS TODAY IS ALREADY PROVING TO BE
A HOT ONE. THINGS WILL CONTINUE TO HEAT UP TO THE UPPER 90S AND INTO
THE LOW 100S EVERYWHERE EXCEPT ALONG THE COAST LATER THIS
AFTERNOON.

THE 12 UTC 500 MB ANALYSIS AND VAPOR IMAGERY SHOW THE CORE OF THE
LARGE RIDGE CENTERED JUST WEST OF THE REGION. THE MID AND UPPER
LEVEL AIRMASS HAD MOISTENED A LITTLE...BUT IT IS STILL RELATIVELY
DRY (AT LEAST FOR THE SUMMER) OFF TO OUR SOUTHEAST...WHERE
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA ARE IN THE 1.5 INCH
RANGE. KTAE IS MORE MOIST...AT 1.9 INCHES...BUT THERE ARE DRY
POCKETS IN THE MID LEVELS...NOTABLY AROUND 700 MB THAT WILL HELP
LIMIT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON.

THIS RIDGE ALOFT IS CREATING A TYPE 8 REGIME WITH NORTHERLY FLOW
HELPING TO SUPPRESS MUCH OF OUR THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE AFTERNOON.
DURING THIS REGIME CLIMATOLOGICALLY MOST OF THE STORMS ARE ALONG THE
EASTERN BORDER OF THE CWA AND THE SEA BREEZE FRONTS NEAR THE COAST.
THIS IS WHY 30 PERCENT POPS WERE PUT IN FOR MUCH OF THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE AREA TODAY...WITH 20 PERCENT ELSEWHERE.

THE BIG STORY OF THE DAY WILL BE TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS LIKELY
REACHING THE LOWER 100S IN A FEW PLACES. TEMPERATURE TRENDS THIS
MORNING ARE ALREADY 2 TO 5 DEGREES ABOVE YESTERDAY`S PACE...SO THE
INHERITED WARMER FORECAST LOOKS GOOD...THOUGH A FEW SLIGHT UPWARD
ADJUSTMENTS TO MAX TEMPS WERE MADE TO MATCH THESE TRENDS. THE HEAT
ADVISORY AREA LOOKS GOOD WITH NO CHANGES NEEDED THERE.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS NEAR THE WATERS.

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
GA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BEN HILL...BERRIEN...BROOKS...
     COOK...IRWIN...LANIER...LOWNDES...TIFT...TURNER.

FL...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: INLAND TAYLOR...LAFAYETTE...
     MADISON.

GM...NONE.

&&

$$