AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
124 PM EDT SAT JUL 30 2011

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-MONDAY)...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHEAST BUT
GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE WEST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. RELATIVELY
WEAK EASTERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE AREA...ALLOWING
THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE TO MOVE INLAND EACH AFTERNOON. OVERALL
COVERAGE OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY LIMITED TODAY WITH
SOME DRY AIR IN PLACE...BUT POPS WILL INCREASE FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AFTERNOON AS ADDITIONAL MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT OVER THE
AREA. TEMPERATURES EACH AFTERNOON WILL REMAIN VERY WARM...REACHING
THE MID TO UPPER 90S.A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
OVER THE SOUTHEAST BUT GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE WEST OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. RELATIVELY WEAK EASTERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER
THE AREA...ALLOWING THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE TO MOVE INLAND EACH
AFTERNOON. OVERALL COVERAGE OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY
LIMITED TODAY WITH SOME DRY AIR IN PLACE...BUT POPS WILL INCREASE
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AFTERNOON AS ADDITIONAL MOISTURE WILL BE
PRESENT OVER THE AREA. TEMPERATURES EACH AFTERNOON WILL REMAIN
VERY WARM...REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 90S.

.LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY)...
STRONG RIDGE OF 500 MB HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. BY MID
WEEK...TROUGHING OFF THE EAST COAST WILL START TO PINCH OFF INTO A
CUTOFF LOW. THE GFS PROGS THIS LOW TO DRIFT ACROSS THE PENINSULA
THROUGH THE TAIL END OF THE COMING WEEK. HAVE KEPT POPS HIGHER IN
THE DAY 5-7 TIME WITH THE UPPER LOW MOVING WEST INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WILL ALSO HAVE TO MONITOR THE
EVENTUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE THAT NHC PROGS
WITH A HIGH CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS.


&&

.AVIATION...
SCT CU 040-050 WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBYS.  SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR
AROUND MIDNIGHT.  DRY CONDITIONS WITH VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
PREDOMINATE AT ALL TERMINALS NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...
RELATIVELY WEAK EASTERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE EXCEPT ALONG
THE COAST WHERE THE FLOW WILL BECOME ONSHORE. SEAS WILL REMAIN 2
FEET OR LESS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO CONCERNS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  79  94  79  93 /  20  50  20  50
FMY  77  94  78  93 /  20  50  20  50
GIF  76  96  77  96 /  20  40  20  50
SRQ  77  93  77  92 /  20  50  20  50
BKV  73  94  74  94 /  20  50  20  50
SPG  82  93  82  91 /  20  50  20  50

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$