AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
237 AM EDT SAT JUL 30 2011

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...A LARGE DOME OF MID LEVEL
HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
BUT WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT WESTWARD. THE OVERALL MID LEVEL SYNOPTIC
PATTERN IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A MID LEVEL
TROUGH DROPS DOWN THE ATLANTIC COAST. AT THE SURFACE A BROAD AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TODAY. MODELS ARE
CONSISTENT IN SHOWING A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER
THE NORTHERN GULF AND SLOW RETROGRADING THROUGH MONDAY. OVERALL
FLOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK ALLOWING FOR A DECENT PUSH OF THE
WEST COAST SEA BREEZE EACH AFTERNOON.

POPS ARE EXPECTED TO STEADILY INCREASE EACH AFTERNOON. THE DRY AIR
MASS WHICH WAS OVER THE REGION YESTERDAY WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT TO
THE WEST TODAY. PLENTY OF SUBSIDENCE WILL BE IN PLACE AGAIN TODAY TO
HELP REDUCE OVERALL RAINFALL CHANCES. HOWEVER...WILL MAINTAIN 30
POPS ALONG THE COAST AND NEAR THE SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON AS A
SLIGHT MOISTURE RETURN IS EXPECTED. POPS FOR SUN AND MON WILL
INCREASE TO 40/50 AS THE MID LEVEL RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND TROPICAL
MOISTURE MOVES BACK OVER THE STATE. MAY SEE BETTER COVERAGE ON
MONDAY WITH THE SEA BREEZE PUSHING THROUGH THE CWA. TEMPS WILL
REMAIN HOT TODAY BUT WILL SLIGHTLY MODERATE BY SUNDAY AS CLOUD COVER
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE.

.LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...STRONG RIDGE OF 500
MB HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. BY MID WEEK...TROUGHING OFF THE
EAST COAST WILL START TO PINCH OFF INTO A CUTOFF LOW. THE GFS
PROGS THIS LOW TO DRIFT ACROSS THE PENINSULA THROUGH THE TAIL END
OF THE COMING WEEK. HAVE KEPT POPS HIGHER IN THE DAY 5-7 TIME WITH
THE UPPER LOW MOVING WEST INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO BY FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. WILL ALSO HAVE TO MONITOR THE EVENTUAL DEVELOPMENT OF
THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE THAT NHC PROGS WITH A HIGH CHANCE OF
DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS PERIOD. CB
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON PRIMARILY AFTER 20Z BUT
WIDESPREAD COVERAGE NOT EXPECTED SO WILL NOT INCLUDE VCTS. SEA
BREEZE FLOW WILL TURN WINDS WEST IN THE AFTERNOON BUT AFTER 02-03Z
THE WINDS BECOME LIGHT EAST AND CB DISSIPATES.


&&

.MARINE...WEAK GRADIENT FLOW IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. WINDS WILL REMAIN WEAK...EXCEPT ALONG THE COAST DURING
THE AFTERNOONS DUE TO THE SEA BREEZE...AND WAVES WILL REMAIN IN
THE 1 TO 2 FT RANGE.

&&

FIRE WEATHER...THE DRY AIR MASS WHICH WAS OVER THE AREA YESTERDAY
WILL PUSH WESTWARD TODAY. THUNDERSTORM STORM CHANCES WILL BEGIN
INCREASE BY TOMORROW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  94  79  94  79 /  30  20  50  30
FMY  95  77  94  78 /  30  20  50  20
GIF  96  76  96  77 /  20  20  40  20
SRQ  94  77  93  77 /  30  20  50  30
BKV  94  73  94  74 /  30  20  50  20
SPG  93  82  93  82 /  30  20  50  30

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$