AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
933 AM EDT FRI JUL 29 2011

.UPDATE...OTHER THAN SOME PATCHY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS...SKIES ARE
MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES
CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER 80S. THE 12Z SOUNDING CAME IN QUITE DRY
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATERS OF ONLY 1.56 INCHES. IT HAS ALSO WARMED
ALOFT WITH A 500 MB TEMPERATURE OF -4.9. THIS POINTS TO A LATE
START TO AFTERNOON CONVECTION AND SUGGESTS COVERAGE WILL BE QUITE
LOW. THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS 20 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES WHICH MAY BE
A BIT ON THE GENEROUS SIDE...BUT DO EXPECT SOME STORMS TO FORM
ALONG THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY DESPITE THE INCREASE IN STABILITY
AND LOWER MOISTURE. ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM TODAY WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO GENERATE STRONG GUSTY WINDS.

WE COULD SEE SOME NEAR-RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR MORE INFORMATION.

THE CURRENT ZONE FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH NO UPDATES PLANNED THIS
MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...
DRIER AIR OVER THE REGION SHOULD KEEP SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE LIMITED TODAY WITH ONLY ISOLATED STORMS EXPECTED DURING
THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN THIS HAVE DEPICTED VCTS AND CB IN THE TAFS
AFTER 20Z TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED. EAST SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS IN THE 5 TO 10 KNOT RANGE
EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST AROUND 10 KNOTS
AFTER 19Z AS THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS WITH GUSTS UP TO
35 KNOTS POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...A 3 TO BRIEFLY 5 FOOT SWELL MOVES PAST BUOY 42036
YESTERDAY EVENING BUT THE DIRECTION WAS PRIMARILY FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH. SINCE THEN...THE SWELL HEIGHT HAS DROPPED TO 2 FEET AND
WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE TODAY. SOME SWELL MAY CONTINUE OVER THE
WATERS TODAY BUT OVERALL TOTAL WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BE 3 FEET OR
LESS.

NO MAJOR CHANGES WILL BE MADE TO THE MARINE FORECAST THIS MORNING.

&&

.CLIMATE...LOTS OF SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB
RAPIDLY INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S BY EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH
SOME LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE COAST REACHING 97 OR 98 DEGREES.
BELOW IS A LIST OF RECORD HIGHS FOR TODAY...SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
AN ASTERISK /*/ DENOTES LAST OF SEVERAL OCCURRENCES.

RECORD HIGHS:

            TODAY    SATURDAY  SUNDAY
LOCATION    07/29     07/30     07/31

TPA        97/1993   96/1961*  96/1958
SPG        95/2009*  96/2009   96/1961*
LAL        98/1993*  99/1993   97/2010*
SRQ        96/1998*  96/1998*  97/1927
FMY        98/1942   97/1942   97/1982

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$