AFDTLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1000 AM EDT FRI JUN 25 2004

.CURRENTLY...PARTLY SUNNY ACROSS LOCAL AREA. RADAR SHOWS CONVECTION 
NOTICEABLY DECREASING IN LAST HOUR WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A 
FEW THUNDERSTORMS LINGERING ACROSS FRANKLIN COUNTIES AND THE 
APALACHEE BAY. TEMPS FROM MID 70S SE ALA TO MID 80S PANHANDLE 
COAST. SULTRY DEW POINTS REMAIN IN THE MID 70S INLAND TO UPPER 70S 
COAST. WINDS SLY 5-10 MPH. 

.DISCUSSION...DESPITE CURRENT LULL IN CONVECTION..ANOTHER ACTIVE DAY 
APPEARS LIKELY. UPR TROUGH LA/MISS BORDER REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY 
SENDING SERIES OF EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES ROLLING EWD IN DOWNSTREAM DEEP 
SW FLOW. CLOSER TO HOME...STEERING FLOW (TYPE 5) AND LO LVL FLOW 
BOTH SWLY ADVECTING JUICY GULF MOISTURE NEWD AND ACROSS LOCAL AREA. 
MODELS DIFFER SLIGHTLY IN STRENGTH/POSITION OF SE RIDGE WITH ETA A 
LITTLE STRONGER AND THUS POPS A LITTLE LOWER THAN GFS. 12Z TLH 
SOUNDING HINTS A A LITTLE DRYING SINCE LAST NIGHT BUT PWAT REMAINS 
ABOVE 1.5 INCHES. CANT ARGUE AGAINST WET SCENARIO SO WILL KEEP INHERITED 
POPS/ZFP CONFIGURATION IN TACT WITH NW (LIKELY)-SE (MID-SCT) 
GRADIENT. OF CONCERN IS POSSIBLE ECHO TRAINING ESPECIALLY ALONG COAST 
YIELDING LOCALIZED FLOODING AND LATER SEABREEZE-OUTFLOW CLASHES 
ACROSS NW THIRD OF STATE.           

.MARINE...INHERITED FORECAST LUKS GOOD.