CFWOKX
FOR DETAILS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH LATER TONIGHT DISSIPATES IN THE
LOW LEVELS...BUT THE RESIDUAL MID LEVEL BOUNDARY REMAINS IN PLACE
THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY.

A PERSISTENT UPPER TROUGH REMAINS ENTRENCHED OVER EASTERN CANADA.
MUGGY AIRMASS IS NOT REALLY SCOURED OUT BY THE FRONT...SO WITH THE
UPPER LOW AND HIGH DEWPOINTS IN PLACE..UNSETTLED WEATHER IS
EXPECTED FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

WILL STICK WITH A MAINLY DIURNAL TREND TO POP...KEEP THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE FORECAST AND TRY TO TWEAK TO INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES AS MUCH
AS POSSIBLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUES TO SHOW A SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN WITH
NO MAJOR RAIN MAKERS AND TEMPERATURES NEAR CLIMATOLOGY. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY...HOWEVER
THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVES LATE THURSDAY
WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW NYC
APPROACHING UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 DEGREES FOR MIDWEEK. IT REMAINS TO
BE SEEN IF WE WILL MAKE IT TO THE END OF JULY WITHOUT REACHING 90
DEGREES IN CENTRAL PARK FOR THE ONLY THE SECOND TIME SINCE RECORDS
BEGAN (THE LAST TIME CENTRAL PARK HAD NO 90 DEGREE DAYS IN JUNE AND
JULY WAS 1996).

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
POTENTIAL FOR ACTIVE FIRST 6 TO 12 HR OF TERMINALS WITH HIGHLY
UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE WITH APPROACHING SFC TROF AND STRONG
JET DYNAMICS. GENERALLY THROUGH 09Z...CONVECTION WILL WORK SW TO NE
AT 25 KT ACROSS THE AREA...PRODUCING MVFR CEILINGS/IFR VSBYS
(+TSRA). THE INITIAL AXIS OF THE CONVECTION WILL BE ACROSS THE NYC
TERMINALS...THEN GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST...IMPACTING KISP AND KGON
AFTER 05Z.

CU WILL BE BASED AROUND 5 KFT OVERNIGHT...WITH A IFR CEILINGS
ACROSS KISP AND KGON WITH HIGH DEW POINT AIR WORKING ACROSS THE
COOLER NEAR SHORE WATERS. IFR CEILINGS ALSO LIKELY TO FORM OUTSIDE
THE NYC TERMINALS ONCE THE RAIN EXITS THE REGION. KJFK MAY SEE
BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR CEILINGS AS SOME STRATUS WORKS OFF THE NEAR
SHORE WATERS...BUT PRIMARILY EAST.

VFR CEILINGS BY 15Z AT ALL TERMINALS...EXCEPT KGON. LOW-LEVEL WIND
TRAJECTORY SUCH THAT IFR/LOW END MVFR CEILINGS MAY PERSIST AT
KGON ALL DAY. SW WINDS 10 TO 15 KT WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20 KT. AFT
CB DEVELOPMENT WITH BASES AROUND 4 KFT. WEAK SFC BOUNDARY ACROSS
THE AREA MAY TRIGGER SCT CONVECTION AFTER 18Z.

OUTLOOK FOR 00Z TUE THROUGH THU...
VFR. ISOLD TO SCT AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. SEAS HAVE REMAINED BELOW SCA...BUT LLJ EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN
OVER THE WATERS TONIGHT WHICH SHOULD HELP BUILD SEAS TO MARGINAL
SCA...CONTINUING INTO MONDAY. WILL CONTINUE SCA FOR OCEAN WATERS AND
LET SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS EXAMINE WAVE TRENDS.

ONCE OCEAN SEAS REACH MARGINAL SCA THEY COULD WAVER AROUND THERE
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW AND
PERIODIC STRENGTHENING OF THE LLJ.

LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING AMBROSE JET DEVELOPMENT COULD HAVE MARGINAL
SCA WINDS ON THE WESTERN WATERS EACH DAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE AREAL AVERAGE RAINFALL OF
THREE QUARTERS TO AROUND ONE INCH THIS EVENING. LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS OF TWO OR MORE INCHES ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS
AND STORMS MOVING ACROSS THE SAME AREAS. FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE
OUTSIDE NYC GENERALLY 2 TO 2 1/2 INCHES IN 3 AND 6 HOURS. FLASH
FLOODING...AND URBAN FLOODING...IS A POSSIBILITY TONIGHT. A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MONDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR CTZ005>012.
NY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NYZ067>081.
NJ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NJZ002>006-011.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$