PANHANDLE COUNTIES OF GULF AND CALHOUN.(SEE MIAFFATLH FOR DETAILS)  
___________________________________________________________________
CURRENTLY:CLOUDY ACROSS LOCAL AREA MAINLY SCT-BKN 4-6K...BKN 10K AND 
BKN-OVC 25K. TEMPS/DEW POINTS FROM LOW 50S/AROUND 40 SE ALA/GA TO 
LOW 60S/UPPER 50S PANHANDLE COAST. 24 HR TEMP/DEW POINT COMPRISON 
SHOWS LOCAL AIRMASS NOTICEABLY WARMER/WETTER WITH GREATEST DISPARITY 
SE ALA/WRN PANHANDLE DECREASING TO ERN MOST CWFA. WINDS FROM SE 10 
TO 15 MPH WRN THIRD TO NEAR CALM SE THIRD OF LOCAL AREA. 

DISCUSSION: LOOKING AT THE BIG PIX...ACTIVE NEW YEARS EVE ON TAP FOR 
SE CONUS. PROGRESSIVE SPLIT FLOW CONTS ACROSS CONUS. SRN STREAM 
CONTS MOST ACTIVE WITH STG PAC JET MOVG EWD INTO NRN CALIF/OREGON... 
AND AMPLIFYING SHORT WAVE AND DEVELOPG CLOSED LOW WITH 80 KT MID LVL 
JET IN LWR MISS VALLEY CURRENTLY SPAWNING ACTIVE CONVECTION ACROSS 
GULF COAST. PAC JET WILL HELP KICK LOW EWD FROM TEXAS/LA BORDER 
EARLY THIS MORNING AND ACROSS SRN MS/ALA TONIGHT.  AT SURFACE LOW 
NEAR GAVLESTON WILL MOVE SLOLY E TO CNTRL CNTRL MISS THIS AFTN AND 
THEN ENE TO NEAR HUNTSVILLE BY SUNRISE NEW YEARS DAY. ASSOCD 
SQUALL LINE TO MOVE ACROSS ERN GULF NEXT 18 HRS AND PARENT COLD 
FRONT BECOMES OCCLUED AS IT MOVES ACROSS GULF COAST TONIGHT. STRONG 
H85 JET AHEAD OF SQUALL WILL ADVECT HIGH DEW POINTS NWD ACROSS LOCAL 
AREA. 

THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN CONTS WITH 1.25-1.5 INCH BULLSEYE ACROSS 
AREA..MAINLY SRN THIRD THIS EVENING. WILL CONSIDER ISSUING FLOOD 
WATCH FOR FLA ZONES AS SOME RIVERS ABOVE NORMAL FROM LAST EVENT. 
WITH LARGE SCALE FORCING...THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS IN LEWP/BOWS OF 
SQUALL CONTS BEGINNING THIS AFTN. AS UPR LOW MOVES EWD...DEEP LYR 
SHEAR/STRONG BACKING LOW LVL FLW INCREASES...LLVL JET STRENGTHENS 
AND THIS WILL SPREAD INCREASG DFLU/LIFT ACROSS AREA. THIS SUFFICIENT 
FOR SUPERCELLS OR POSSIBLY TORNADOS ESPECIALLY IN WARM SECTOR OF FLA 
AND ADJAC WATERS MAINLY AFTER SUNSET. SPC CONTS AREA IN SLIGHT RISK. 
AFTER NOTICEABLE MODEL DISAGREEMENT IN INTENSITY AND TIMING OF 
SYSS...GFA AND ETA ARE QUITE SIMILAR. BOTH CONT TO BE A LITTLE 
DEEPER (MORE SLY TRACK) AND SLOWER WITH CLOSED LOW THAN PREV RUNS SO 
ONSET AND END OF WX EVENT DELAYED EVERY SHIFT.        

FORECAST WILL ADDRESS ABOVE WITH CAT POPS AND HIGHLIGHT OF SEVERE 
WX/HEAVY RAIN WITH EMPHASIS ON AFTN W OF RIVER AND EVENING/NIGHT E 
OF RIVER. FRONT MOVES THRU LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY WED SO LINGERING 
MORNING RAIN ON NEW YEARS DAY ESPECIALLY ERN THIRD OF CWFA. WITH SLY 
FLOW AHEAD OF SYSS..TEMPS WILL WARM UP TO UNSEASONABLY HIGH 
TEMPS...ESPECIALLY ERN THIRD LOCAL AREA. 

ANOTHER CONCERN...IS POSSIBILITY OF AT LEAST MINOR COASTAL FLOODING
AND STRONG ONSHORE WINDS LASH COASTLINES ESPECIALLY AT HIGH TIDE. 
VIZ 1641 EST FOR APALACH...2002 CST FOR PANAMA CITY. BUT SINCE TIDES 
LESS THAN ONE FOOT WILL DEFER TO NEXT SHIFT TO CONSIDER ISSUANCE.

EXTENDED:NEXT COLD FRONT CROSSES THURS INTO EARLY FRI BUT SYS WILL 
BE A LOT WEAKER THAN TODAYS EVENT. TEMPS COOL BACK TO AOB CLIMO 
NORMALS. 

MARINE: OVERNIGHT BUOYS SHOWS WINDS/SEAS ALREADY AT SCA LEVELS WITH 
DETERIORATING CONDS SPREADING EWD WITH SQUALL/FRONT. SCA LOOKS GOOD 
THRU AT LEAST TODAY. 

THANKS ATL FOR COORDINATION ON PSBLE FLOOD WATCH

PRELIM NUMBERS: 
TLH 70 52 67 45 7+30
PFN 68 56 64 49 +710
DHN 66 54 59 47 +730
ABY 66 53 63 45 9830
VLD 72 55 68 47 7+30
CTY 74 55 70 46 6940

.TLH...
.AL...NONE.
.GA...FLOOD WATCH FOR TONIGHT FOR GAZ127>131-146>148-158>161.
.FL...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ALL MARINE ZONES. 
      FLOOD WATCH FOR TONIGHT FOR FLZ013>019-026>029-034.
 
BLOCK