FWFLIX) will be updated after the top of the hour for the expiration of the Red Flag Warning. It should be noted that extremely dry conditions will continue the next couple days with minimum afternoon RH values falling below 30 percent from the Interstate 10 corridor northward. However, wind speeds won`t be sufficient to justify Red Flag Warnings. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Friday night) Issued at 218 PM CDT Wed Oct 16 2024 Strong negative vorticity advection associated with a deep layer ridge axis building in from the northwest will result in clear skies and low humidity through the entire forecast period. Additionally, cold air will also continue to feed into the region on the back of a northerly flow regime. This pool of colder air will keep temperatures 10 to 15 degrees below average tomorrow with highs near 70. By Friday, the heart of the 925mb cold pool will start to shift to the east, and this will allow for some moderation of the temperatures. However, readings are still expected to be about 5 degrees below average. The clear skies and dry air will also support a fairly large diurnal range with lows falling into the low to mid 40s tonight and tomorrow night generally along and north of the I-10/12 corridor and the low to mid 50s south of this corridor. As the cold pool shifts to the east Friday night, lows will be about 5 degrees warmer on average from the previous two nights. Overall, there is very little spread in the forecast temperature guidance, and the forecast mirrors the NBM deterministic output. Winds will also decrease tomorrow and Friday as the high pressure builds more over the region, and this will allow the Red Flag Warning to expire this evening. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Tuesday night) Issued at 218 PM CDT Wed Oct 16 2024 Little change in the ongoing pattern is expected this weekend into the first half of next week. A deep layer ridge will continue to dominate the Gulf South, and this will keep skies clear, humidity low, and any rain chances at zero percent. Temperatures will continue to moderate over the weekend as the wind field turns more easterly. Highs will warm back into the upper 70s on Saturday and further climb into the lower 80s from Sunday through Tuesday. Temperatures will continue to cool around 25 degrees on average each night due to the low humidity and clear skies in place. This will result in lows trending warmer through the period from the low 50s and 60s Sunday morning into the upper 50s and 60s by Tuesday morning. Once again, model spread in this time period is low and confidence is high in the forecast. Given this, have opted to use NBM deterministic values for the forecast temperatures in the extended period. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1127 PM CDT Wed Oct 16 2024 VFR conditions through the forecast period. With precipitable water values near the climatological minima for mid-October until Friday morning, clouds are going to have a hard time developing. Only real issue at all is the gusty winds at KNEW and KMSY, where gusts in excess of 25 knots are possible for the next 3-6 hours. Even there, sustained winds should drop below 15 knots prior to 15z Thursday. && .MARINE... Issued at 218 PM CDT Wed Oct 16 2024 Fairly rough conditions will persist across the coastal waters through the weekend as a tight pressure gradient between a high pressure system to the north and a broad area of low pressure in the southern Gulf and western Caribbean remains in place. Northeast and east winds of 15 to 25 knots is forecast for the waters over this period, and expect to see an extension or reissuance of the small craft advisories in place for the open Gulf waters. Seas will range from 4 to 10 feet over the period due to a combination of wind waves and swell. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 41 70 42 74 / 0 0 0 0 BTR 45 71 46 76 / 0 0 0 0 ASD 43 71 45 75 / 0 0 0 0 MSY 56 70 57 74 / 0 0 0 0 GPT 47 70 50 75 / 0 0 0 0 PQL 42 71 43 74 / 0 0 0 0 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Thursday for GMZ530-532-534- 536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577. MS...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Thursday for GMZ532-534-536- 538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577. && $$