LSRAKQ)... AS WELL AS AVAILABLE ON THE TOP OUR WEBSITE (WWW.WEATHER.GOV/WAKEFIELD) UNDER "NEWS OF THE DAY" FOR MORE INFORMATION. STORM SURVEYS MAY NOT BE FINALIZED TILL LATER ON THIS WEEK...BUT TO BE COMPLETED AS SOON AS POSSIBLE. NEAR TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION... EARLY MORNING WX ANALYSIS SHOWING SFC HIGH PRESSURE STILL ANCHORED WELL OFF THE SE COAST...WITH QUASI-STATIONARY/WARM FRNTL BNDRY ALIGNED NEARLY WEST TO EAST FROM SRN OHIO EASTWARD TO NEAR THE MASON DIXON LINE. AREA OF CONVECTION IS ONGOING ALONG THE BNDRY IN SRN IND AND OHIO. MAIN FCST CHALLENGE TODAY CONCERNS THE EVOLUTION OF THE BNDRY. MID/UPR LVL FLOW TURNING SLIGHTLY MORE TO THE WSW WOULD SUGGEST THE FRONT ACTUALLY LIFTS A BIT TO THE NORTH LATER TODAY. HAVE THEREFORE KEPT FCST DRY FOR ALL AREAS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A FAIR AMT OF MID/HIGH LVL CLOUDINESS AROUND ESPECIALLY ACRS NRN TIER OF CWA. ELSEWHERE SKIES AVG PT SUNNY WITH LOW LVL THICKNESSES AND H85 TMPS YIELDING HIGHS A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN YSDY...80-85 W OF BAY...70S ERN SHORE. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS THE FRONT APPROACHES TONIGHT...DECENT LOW LVL SOUTHERLY FLOW/MIXING...LOOKS TO MAKE FOR A VERY WARM NIGHT...WENT ON HIGH SIDE OF GDNC WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE LWR 60S...UPR 50S ERN SHORE. SNDGS STILL SHOW SOME SHALLOW LOW LVL MSTR...CLIMO SUGGESTS LMTD POTENTIAL FOR FOG DESPITE INCRSG DEW PTS...COULD SEE SOME PATCHY LOW LVL STRATUS SO KEEPING SOME CLOUD CVR AROUND ALL AREAS THROUGH SUNRISE. WED...MORE SGNFCNT S/W DIVES SE FROM THE NRN PLAINS AND ACRS THE GRT LAKES AND INTO ERN CANADA WED/WED NGT. THR MID/UPR LVL TROUGHING REALLY FLATTENS OUT SOUTH OF ABOUT 40-N LAT...SUGGESTING THAT UPR SUPPORT WILL REMAIN WELL OFF TO OUR N. MAIN TRIGGER FOR PCPN WILL BE THE ACTUAL CDFRNT...PRIMARILY WED EVENG/ERLY THU AM. HAVE CONTD TO CAP POPS AT 20% MOST AREAS WED AFTN...AND 30% MOST AREAS WED NGT...THINK WE`LL SEE A SPLIT PRECIP PATTERN WED AFTN/EVENG WHERE BULK OF MSTR EITHER GOES TO OUR NORTH (WITH UPR SHORTWAVE)...OR TO OUR SOUTH W/ CONVECTION ACRS THE DEEP SOUTH. FAVOR THE LOWER CAPES SHOWN BY THE NAM...500-1000 J/KG RATHER THAN THE SFC BASED CAPES ARND 2000 J/KG (DEW PTS IN THE LWR-MID 60S) PER THE GFS. MIXED LYR MSTR PROFILES POINT TO STRG MIXING...AND DEW PTS DROPPING INTO THE M-U50S IN THE AFTN W/ PEAK HEATING. LATEST SPC DAY 2 OUTLOOK HAS UPGRADED TO SLGT RISK...BUT FEEL THAT POPS WILL BE LMTD AND TIMING TOO LATE FOR MUCH SVR...ISO AT BEST E OF THE MTNS IN AKQ CWA. WILL HIGHLIGHT GUSTY WINDS W/ CHC TSTMS IN HWO. THU...GOING WITH THE BNDRY MOVG S INTO CAROLINAS WITH HIGH BLDG IN FROM THE N. GFS KEEPS MSTR ACROSS SRN MOST CNTYS THRU MOST OF THE DAY BUT HAVE ELECTED TO ONLY HAVE SLGHT CHC POPS ACROSS NC CNTYS DRNG AM HRS. DRYER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE N WITH A DECREASE IN CLDNS (PT TO M SUNNY) ACROSS NERN CNTYS. COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE M60S N TO L70S S. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... THE LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND A COLD FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. UPPER RIDGING BEGINS TO EXPAND FRIDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF A TROUGH DIGGING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS PUSHING THE COLD FRONT BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. MEANWHILE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS OFF THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND MAINTAINING LOW-LEVEL EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. CHANCE POPS WERE MAINTAINED FOR THE FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT PERIOD RATHER THAN INCREASING AS THE BEST SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. MAXIMA FRIDAY ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S FOR THE EASTERN SHORE...TO MID 60S SRN COUNTIES...BUT HIGHS COULD BE COOLER...ESPECIALLY INLAND DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION. AN UPPER RIDGE THEN REMAINS ANCHORED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODEL DIFFERENCES ARISE IN HOW FAR NORTH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EVENTUALLY SETTLES. THE GFS SUGGESTS UNSETTLED WEATHER...ESPECIALLY NORTH...WHILE THE ECMWF AND CMC SUGGEST PRIMARILY DRY CONDITIONS. AT THIS POINT CHANCE POPS WILL BE FORECAST NORTH...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE SOUTH. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH A BACKDOOR FRONT COULD BRIEFLY DROP INTO THE EASTERN SHORE LATER SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY. HENCE HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH AT LEAST THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S INLAND...WITH COOLER READING FOR THE EASTERN SHORE. && .AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... VFR CONDS WILL PERSIST TODAY THROUGH WED WITH A BREEZY/GUSTY SW WIND DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. CHANCE FOR LWR CIGS/VSBYS WITH SHWRS/TSTMS LATE WED/ERLY THURS. && .MARINE... WILL CANCEL SCA FLAGS AT 4AM THIS MORNING OVER THE BAY/NRN COASTAL WATERS. LATEST OBS SHOW WINDS HAVE DISSIPATED OVER THE BAY WHILE SEAS HAVE DROPPED UNDER 5 FT OVER THE NRN COASTAL WATERS. S-SW FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE MARINE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE WIND OVER THE BAY...AND SEAS OVER THE NRN COASTAL WATERS WILL LIKELY RETURN TO MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS BY THIS AFTERNOON...AFTER A LULL THE REST OF THIS MORNING. MAY NEED TO HOIST AN SCA FOR THOSE AREAS LATER THIS MORNING PENDING A CLOSER EXAMINATION OF THE NEWEST GUIDANCE. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY AND THEN CROSSES THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY AND TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST FRIDAY BRINGING A PERIOD OF ONSHORE FLOW. && .HYDROLOGY... SENT UPDATED FLS STATEMENTS...RIVER HAS CRESTED AND IS NOW SLOWLY FALLING (NOW MINOR FLOODING RATHER THAN MODERATE AT WESTHAM). THE FLOOD WRNG CONTS ON JAMES RIVER AT RICHMOND WESTHAM AND THE CITY LOCKS...WILL LIKELY FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY THIS EVENG. SEE WBCFLSAKQ FOR MORE INFORMATION. && .CLIMATE... WHILE RECORD HIGHS ARE NOT EXPECTED WED THERE IS AT LEAST AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR REACHING 90 DEGREES ON WED (APR 20TH). FOR REFERENCE...THE RECORD HIGHS ARE LISTED BELOW FOLLOWED BY CLIMATOLOGY FOR THE 1ST DATE WITH 90 DEGREE TEMPERATURES: RECORD HIGHS FOR WED 4/20: RIC...95 IN 1985 ORF...91 IN 1941 SBY...92 IN 1985 ECG...93 IN 1985 90-DEGREE CLIMATOLOGY: AVG 1ST DATE EARLIEST LATEST RICHMOND......MAY 11TH......MAR 17TH (1945)....JULY 2ND (1972) NORFOLK.......MAY 19TH......MAR 23RD (1907)....JULY 2ND (1972) && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR ANZ630>632-634. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MPR