FAR ARE TREES DOWN FROM WND GUSTS ARND 60 MPH. SEE LSRAKQ FOR INFO.

PRVS DSCN:
SEVERE TSTM WATCH UNTIL 8PM EDT FOR WRN/CNTRL PORTIONS OF THE
CWA...WATCH COULD BE EXTENDED FURTHER TO THE E/SE INCLUDING THE
TIDEWATER REGION LATER THIS AFTN/EVE.

ONGOING MCS CONTINUES TO MOVE OVER THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE OHIO
VALLEY AND STARTING TO MOVE INTO WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION. MCS WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ALONG THE GEOSTROPHIC
WIND FLOW AND JUST TO THE SOUTH OF A W/E DRAPED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
THAT WILL SAG SOUTHWARD INTO TONIGHT. TEMPS CURRENTLY IN THE 50S
NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY AND INTO THE 70S TO 80S SOUTH OF IT.

AS FAR AS SEVERE CHCS...STRONG WNW MID LVL JET STREAK AT H50-60 LVLS
(60-70 KTS) WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION LATER THIS AFTN AND INTO THE
EVE HRS. AMPLE SUNSHINE AND DEW POINTS CLIMBING INTO THE 60S EASTERLY
THIS AFTN AS TEMPS RISE INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S (70S ERN SHORE).
THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE AS SYSTEM PUSHES INTO THE CWA FROM
THE NW LATE THIS AFTN AND INTO LATE THIS EVE BEFORE BULK OF
ACTIVITY TURNS TO JUST PLAIN RA/SHRAS. SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY WILL
MAINLY FOLLOW AN ESE DIRECTION AT 25 TO 35 MPH (HIGHER SPEEDS WITH
MORE ORGANIZED BOW SEGMENTS). THIS MAY LEAD TO BRIEF HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WHERE ACTIVITY PERSISTS.

FAIRLY DECENT MUCAPE AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE OVER OUR AREA WITH LI`S
OF -3 TO -5. MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 58 MPH
AS A DECENT UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW FROM H90-50 LVLS. SOME HAIL WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY DIME TO NICKLE SIZE (BUT QUARTER SIZE WILL
BE POSSIBLE IN STRONGER UPDRAFTS). LIGHTNING WILL ALSO BE FAIRLY
FREQUENT AS ACTIVITY PASSES THROUGH.

AS FAR AS PRECIP...MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS SITUATED W/E INTO
TONIGHT AND BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW LOW MBE VELOCITY VALUES. IN
ADDITION...PWATS LOOK TO RANGE FROM 1.25 TO 1.75 INCHES.
THEREFORE...LOOK FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF TRAINING OF SHRA/TSRA TO MOVE
OVER THE SAME AREAS..LEADING TO POTENTIAL FOR SOME PONDING ON
ROADWAYS AND LOW LYING AREAS. GRANTED WE HAVE BEEN RATHER DRY AS OF
LATE...SO AT FIRST THE GROUND WILL TAKE A LITTLE TIME TO ALLOW
ITSELF TO ABSORB THE RAINFALL BUT DO NOT FORESEE ANY WIDESPREAD HIGH
WATER ISSUES. BEST CHCS FOR MOD/HVY RAINFALL WILL BE NORTH OF A
CUMBERLAND VA...PRINCE GEORGE VA...CURRITUCK NC LINE. MOST AREAS
NORTH OF THIS LINE WILL SEE CLOSE TO A HALF INCH OF NEEDED RAINFALL
WITH SOME LOCATIONS SEEING OVER AN INCH WHERE SHRA/TSRAS CONTINUE TO
MOVE OVER. GENERALLY UNDER A 0.25 INCH OF RAINFALL EXPECTED SOUTH OF
THE VA BORDER AND OVER FAR NRN PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN SHORE. LOOK
FOR -RA SHRAS EARLY OVERNIGHT TO MORE OF A --RA/DZ SCENARIO FOR
MOST INTO THU AM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CLOUDY SKIES AND AREAS OF --RA/DZ WILL CONTINUE DURING THE MORNING
HOURS AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES SOUTH OF THE CWA WITH AN ONSHORE
EASTERLY FLOW. WITH CLOUDY SKIES...LOOK FOR FAIRLY COOL CONDITIONS
THU WITH HIGHS MAINLY ONLY IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S FAR SOUTH.

SKIES CLEARING OUR LATER IN THE AFTN/EVE E/W OVER THE CWA AS THE
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
REMAINS SITUATED SOUTH. FRONTAL BOUNDARY STARTS TO LIFT NORTHWARD
THU NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY...ALLOWING FOR A DECENT WARM UP AGAIN
TO OCCUR OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM. WE WILL
SEE THE NEXT COLD FRONT SLIDING IN DURING FRI AFTERNOON. WHILE THE
CAPE IS SUFFICIENT FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION...THE MOISTURE IS VERY
LIMITED AND THE DYNAMICS ARE WELL NORTH SO HAVE JUST ALLOWED FOR A
LOW CHANCE OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION.

A COLD FRONT SINKS SOUTH THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SETTLES OVER THE CAROLINAS THOUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT SETTLES SOUTH INTO THE CAROLINAS BY SATURDAY NIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC. THIS SHOULD BRING DRY
AND MILD CONDITIONS TO THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. AN UPPER LOW
MOVES INTO THE MIDWEST BY MONDAY AND SLOWLY TRUNDLES EASTWARD TOWARD
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MAY CREEP INTO THE
WESTERN ZONES BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT APPEARS TO BE THE MORE LIKELY TIME PERIOD FOR UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THRU THE AFTN HRS. SATELLITE/RADAR
SHOWING MCS OVER OH VALLEY MOVG INTO WV WITH LINE OF TSTMS HANGING
UP OVER MTNS...XPECT STORMS TO MOVE INTO NW PORTION OF CWA BY LATE
AFTN/ERLY EVE WITH MID AND LOW LVL CLDS AND THE CHNC OF PRECIP INCRG
THRU THE LATE AFTN. TSTMS MOST LIKELY DURING PK HEATING BUT EXACT
TIMING AND LOCATION REMAINS THE MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM FOR TAF SITES.
HAVE CB IN ALL TAFS WITH VCSH BY 21Z IN WESTERN SITES AND SHWRS AND
LWR CIGS (MVFR) AFFECTING ALL SITE ARND MIDNIGHT. MVFR AND IFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY LATYE THIS EVE AND OVERNIGHT WITH GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT LATE THU MORN. VFR CONDS RETURN THU AFTN INTO SAT.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT ALONG WITH A
COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS. SYNOPTIC WIND SPEEDS INCREASE OUT OF THE
NORTHEAST BEHIND THE FRONT LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW MORNING
LIKELY BRINGING A PERIOD OF MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS IN THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY AND NORTHERN COASTAL ZONES. HENCE A SMALL CRAFT FLAG
WAS HOISTED. THUNDERSTORMS MAY BRING SOME STRONGER WIND GUSTS TO THE
WATER LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE COLD FRONT DISSIPATES
THURSDAY MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTING INTO THE AREA. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATER FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING FOR THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ630>632-650-652-654-656.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BKH/CCW
NEAR TERM...MPR/CCW
SHORT TERM...CCW
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...CY
MARINE...AJZ