PROBLEMS REPORTED. SENT A NEWLSRLCH WITH INFO. FIRST UPDATE ON
ZONES OUT SHORTLY.

&&

RUA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 608 AM CST MON FEB 20 2006) 

DISCUSSION...APOLOGIES FOR THE DELAY.  LOTS TO DIGEST THIS MORNING.

00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS FEATURED SPEEDY QUASI-ZONAL WEST TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL CONUS AT H7 AND ABOVE. H85
CHART DEPICTED BAROCLINIC ZONE CONTINUING TO RESIDE NEAR THE
ARKLATEX REGION...WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST GOMEX AND
RESULTANT SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS SE TX/SW LA. AT THE SFC...LARGE
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY....WHILE LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NW
GULF...WITH AN ATTENDANT WARM FRONT EXTENDING TO ITS EAST.

AREAS OF DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING
PER KLCH 88D...WITH LOCATIONS UP NORTH THAT ARE AOA FREEZING
REPORTING FZDZ OR FZRA. INHERITED ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
15Z WHEN TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED CLIMB ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK.
OTHERWISE...HAVE CARRIED A MENTION OF DRIZZLE AND A SLIGHT RAIN
CHANCE ALL AREAS TODAY. WARM AND MOIST MARINE AIR CONTINUES TO BE
LIFTED ATOP COOL BUT SHALLOW BL...WITH PERIODIC WEAK AND SUBTLE
IMPULSES EMBEDDED IN THE THE FLOW ALOFT PROVIDING SOME ADDITIONAL
LIFT AS WELL.

REGIONAL PROFILER PLOT SUGGESTS ONE SUCH FEATURE MOVING THROUGH ERN TX
AS I WRITE THIS...WHICH MAY HELP ACCOUNT FOR THE RECENT INCREASE
IN RADAR RETURNS ACROSS THE AREA.

BASICALLY EXPECT A CLOUDY...DRIZZLY DAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA
TODAY. FOUND IT HARD TO STOMACH THE DEGREE OF WARMUP DEPICTED BY
THE VARIOUS MOS...WITH N TO NE SFC FLOW EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN
PLACE AND LITTLE TO NO MIXING EXPECTED. THOUGH PREVIOUS FORECAST
NUMBERS LOOKED MUCH MORE REALISTIC...OFFERING A 5 OR SO DEGREE
WARMUP FROM YESTERDAY. WILL STICK WITH THIS IDEA...AND HOPE EVEN
THAT IS NOT TOO GENEROUS.

FOR TOMORROW...FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE GULF EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH
AS SFC LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER CENTRAL TEXAS. GULF BUOYS SHOW
AIRMASS SOUTH OF THIS FRONT CHARACTERIZED BY TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOW TO MID 70S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. WHILE THIS
WILL CERTAINLY BE MODIFIED...I THINK THE MOS NUMBERS START TO
BECOME MORE REASONABLE AT THIS POINT.

DETAILS START TO BECOME A LITTLE MORE UNCERTAIN WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...AS THE GFS AND NAM OFFER DIFFERING SOLUTIONS FOR THE
NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY...BOTH IN TERMS OF TIMING AND HOW FAR NORTH
IT WILL EVENTUALLY RETREAT. NAM BRINGS IT DOWN TO NEAR I-10 ON
WEDNESDAY...AND LIFTS IT BACK WELL TO THE NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THE GFS HOLDS ITS ARRIVAL UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT/EARLY
THURSDAY...AND KEEPS IT MEANDERING AROUND UNTIL THE NEXT FRONT
ARRIVES EARLY SATURDAY. THE GFS HAS THE SUPPORT OF THE ECMWF IN
THIS SCENARIO...SO WILL LEAN IN THAT DIRECTION AS WELL.

PATTERN SHIFT ON TAP FOR THE WEEKEND AS EXTENDED RANGE MODELS SHOW
LONG WAVE TROF DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK. SO AFTER A RELATIVELY WET PERIOD EXPECTED THIS WEEK...NEXT
WEEK LOOKS MUCH DRIER AS THE REGION FALLS UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

AVIATION...LIFR TO IFR CIGS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY 

MARINE...AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE WILL PERSIST TODAY...ALONG WITH
OFFSHORE FLOW. WIND WILL BECOME EASTERLY TONIGHT AND ONSHORE BY
TUESDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY MOVES EAST AND A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS TO THE NORTH.

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$