LSRMHX) WHICH
WILL BE ADDED TO THE TOP NEWS OF THE DAY SECTION OF OUR WEBSITE
SHORTLY (WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MHX). IN ADDITION...HERE ARE THE LATEST
STORM TOTAL PRECIP VALUES FROM SELECTED SITES FROM SUNDAY THROUGH
8PM THIS EVENING:

LOCATION                      RAINFALL

BEAUFORT         (MRH)        11.47
CHERRY POINT     (NKT)        14.45
HATTERAS         (HSE)         6.56
JACKSONVILLE     (NCA)        15.60
NEW BERN         (EWN)        15.52

WE EXPECT TO SEND A MORE DETAILED PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT OUT
TOMORROW MORNING AS WE GET ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TOTALS ACROSS THE
AREA. THIS WILL ALSO BE PLACED ON THE TOP NEWS OF THE DAY SECTION OF
OUR WEBSITE.

FOR FRIDAY...WE HAVE KEPT IN A SMALL POP MAINLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 17
FOR ANY LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH MAIN
MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SWINGING THROUGH BUT WE EXPECT IT TO BE
MOSTLY DRY (ESPECIALLY COMPARED TO TODAY). TEMPS WILL BE FALL
LIKE WITH NLY FLOW...MOSTLY IN THE MID 70S FOR HIGHS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM THURSDAY...THE FIRST TASTE OF TRUE FALL LIKE WEATHER
WILL BE FELT FRIDAY NIGHT AS MINS RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S WELL
INLAND TO AROUND 60 ON THE COAST. SATURDAY SHOULD BE PLEASANT WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 70S.
ANOTHER PLEASANT NIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT WITH MINS AGAIN INTO THE 50S
MOST AREAS. NAM12 AND ECMWF HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN
PRODUCING ANOTHER LOW OFF THE CAROLINAS COAST AND SPREADING
MOISTURE INTO MAINLY THE COASTAL SECTIONS SUNDAY AND ESPECIALLY
SUNDAY NIGHT WHERE WILL HAVE HIGH CHANCE POPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM THURSDAY...UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO CUT OFF OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH STRONG
SPRAWLING SURFACE HIGH PRES BUILDING SOUTH FROM THE GREAT LAKES.
TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS WITH MINS MAINLY IN THE
50S AND MAXES IN THE 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 9 PM THU...MVFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. NO
IMPROVEMENT TO CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. RAIN IS NOW ENDING FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH BUT CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL REMAIN VERY LOW. LOW
PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTH ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN THIS EVENING
WITH VERY SWITCHABLE WIND DIRECTION. AFTER MIDNIGHT WINDS WILL
BECOME NORTHWEST AROUND 10 KNOTS. CEILINGS WILL SLOWLY LIFT FRIDAY
MORNING. EXPECT VFR THROUGHOUT THE AREA BY MID-MORNING FRIDAY. VFR
CONDITIONS INTO SATURDAY EVENING...BUT LOW CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF
RAIN WILL RETURN SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER LOW IS
FORECAST FOR FORM OFF THE GEORGIA COAST SUNDAY AND TRACK QUICKLY
NORTH...PASSING BY THE OUTER BANKS SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 1215 AM FRI...UPDATED TO EXTEND GALES FOR SOUNDS AND WATERS N
OF OCRACOKE INLET UNTIL 4 AM. STRONGER WINDS ASSCTD WITH RAIN BAND
HAVE BEEN PRODUCING WDSPRD GALE WINDS AND WILL LIKELY PERSIST OVER
NRN SECTIONS AND ERN PORTIONS OF SOUNDS PAST 1 AM. WINDS BECOMING W
AND DECRASING TO 25 KT OR LESS LATE TONIGHT.

/PREVIUOS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 9 PM THU...LOW PRESSURE IS NOW MOVING NORTH INTO THE AREA.
MADE SOME SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO THE WINDS OVERNIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS. OVERALL THOUGH THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE.

CONSENSUS FAVORS THE 30/00Z ECMWF SO AM USING IT FOR THE
MARINE PACKAGE. THE LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN THIS
EVENING AND INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES OVERNIGHT...PULLING THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFF THE COAST. BASED ON THIS...MADE SOME
ADJUSTMENTS TO CURRENT HEADLINES. GALE WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FOR
ALL WATERS ENDING AT 05Z FRIDAY. ONCE THE GALES COME DOWN...SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF OUR COASTAL WATERS
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. NORTHEAST FLOW IN STORE ACROSS
THE MARINE AREA THIS WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFF THE COAST. LOW PRESSURE WILL
FORM ON THE FRONT OVER THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE WATERS ON SUNDAY THEN
TRACK NORTH...PASSING JUST EAST OF CAPE HATTERAS SUNDAY
NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR NCZ029-
     044>047-079>081-090>095-098-103-104.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ047-
     080-081-093>095-103-104.
     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ095-098-
     103-104.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     NCZ098.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR NCZ047-081-
     103-104.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR AMZ130-135-
     150-152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ156.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CTC