NPWAKQ. OTW...JUST SOME MONOR CHANGES TO GRIDS / ZFP THIS EVE. WENT WITH A PT CLDY SKY AS BKN CI NOW WDSPRD ACROSS FA. TMPS ABOUT A CAT WRMR THAN LAST NITE...THUS DON'T XPCT ANY FZFG AT KSBY. ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO CWF. ONLY FLOODING CONTS ON NOTTOWAY AT SEBRELL. SEE LTST FLSAKQ. && .PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 419 PM EST MON NOV 27 2006) SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... RATHER STAGNANT PATTERN PERSISTS ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION... WITH THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED ALONG AND JUST OFF THE COAST. NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY TRAVERSING THE UPPER MS VLY AND MIDWEST REGIONS IS FLATTENING OUT THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SOMEWHAT... ALLOWING FOR SOME INFILTRATION OF HIGH/THIN CLOUDS DOWNSTREAM OF WARM CONVEYOR BELT. THIS (PRESENCE OF HIGH CLOUDS) IS REALLY THE ONLY DIFFERENCE FROM YDAY...AS CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE ONCE AGAIN FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG TONIGHT. PER COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING WFO'S...HAVE GONE AHEAD AND HOISTED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN AND LOWER MD/VA EASTERN SHORE (SAME AREAS AFFECTED DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS...ALONG/E OF I-95). TEMPS WILL BE SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT... IF NOT A FEW DEGREES WARMER. TUESDAY THROUGH WED NIGHT...THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES WILL BE WITH THE FOG COVERAGE AND TIMING OF DISSIPATION. THIS WILL AGAIN HAVE AN EFFECT ON HOW QUICKLY TEMPS WILL CLIMB TMRW AND ON WED. WHAT I HAVE DONE IS CONTINUED WITH THE WARMEST READINGS OVER THE W/SW PTNS OF THE AREA (AROUND 70)...WHERE FOG IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS DENSE/WIDESPREAD/PERSISTENT. MEANWHILE...KEPT TEMPS COOLER ALONG CHES BAY AND THE ATLC COAST AS ONCE AGAIN ANTICIPATE A LATER CLEARING TREND WITH THE FOG/STRATUS. MODEL SOUNDINGS ONCE AGAIN SHOW A NOTICEABLY DEEPER LAYER OF BNDRY LAYER MOISTURE WED MORNING (THROUGH AROUND 950 MB OR 2KFT). THIS ALONG WITH 1000-950 MB WINDS INCREASING TO 10-15 MPH WOULD ALLOW FOR A HIGHER RISK FOR STRATUS VS. DENSE FOG. THEREFORE DESPITE THE RELATIVE WARMTH ALOFT (950 MB TEMPS 11-13C)...DID NOT GO HIGHER THAN MOS PROJECTIONS WITH HIGHS ON WED. THURSDAY...S/SW GRADIENT FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF ADVANCING COLD FRONT. THIS SHOULD SET THE STAGE FOR THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK... GIVEN THE GREATER LIKELIHOOD THAT ANY EARLY MORNING STRATUS WILL MIX OUT RELATIVELY QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE. CURRENTLY HAVE LOW-MID 70S TOPS OVER SOUTHSIDE/SERN VA AND NERN NC...THOUGH COULD CERTAINLY ENVISION HIGHS CLOSER TO 80F WITH DEEPER MIXING (AROUND 900 MB OR THEREABTS) THAN WE'VE BEEN OBSERVING OF LATE. GFS/ECMWF TRENDS OF AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH-RIDGE PATTERN ALOFT... CORRESPONDING TO A SLOWER W-E MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT...HAS PROMPTED THE REMOVAL OF POPS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... CONTINUED WITH THE POPS ON FRIDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW MAINLY NRN STREAM DYNAMICS (THE BULK OF WHICH REMAIN WELL N OF THE REGION...ALONG WITH THE SURFACE LOW). THE GOMEX WILL LIKELY BE TAPPED AHEAD OF THE FRONT...HOWEVER THE RELATIVELY QUICK DURATION OF THIS EVEN (COMPARED TO THE PAST COASTAL STORM) WILL LIKELY LIMIT THE HEAVY RAIN/FLOOD THREAT. AVIATION... HIGH PRESSURE AND LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN EARLY FORMATION OF FOG PRODUCING IFR VSBY SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT... CONDITIONS WILL DEGRADE TO LIFR BY SUNRISE AND LAST THRU LATE MORNING. MARINE... NO HEADLINES TNGT THRU WED...AS HI PRES REMAINS OVR THE AREA THEN SHIFTS OFFSHR ON WED. WNDS 10 KTS OR LESS...AND WAVES 1 FT AND SEAS GENERALLY 2 TO 3 FT. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR MDZ021>025 FROM 1 AM TUESDAY TO 10 AM TUESDAY. NC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR NCZ012>017-030>032-102 FROM 1 AM TUESDAY TO 10 AM TUESDAY. VA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR VAZ063-064-070>078-080>100 FROM 1 AM TUESDAY TO 10 AM TUESDAY. MARINE...NONE. && $$