PLEASE SEE THE BHMNPWMOB PRODUCT.  A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN
EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA.  FOR THE LATEST PLEASE
SEE SEE THE PRODUCT BHMFFAMOB.

A TORNADO WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MOST OF SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND
NORTHWEST FLORIDA UNTIL 1100 PM THIS EVENING.  BALDWIN...MOBILE AND
WASHINGTON COUNTIES OF ALABAMA AS WELL AS INLAND SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI ARE NOT IN THE TORNADO WATCH.

...STORM INFORMATION...
AT 415 PM CDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DENNIS WAS LOCATED
NEAR 30.9 NORTH LATITUDE AND 87.3 WEST LONGITUDE...OR JUST SOUTHEAST
OF ATMORE ALABAMA.  DENNIS WAS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR
22 MPH.  ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE BETWEEN 80 AND 100
MPH WITH WINDS GUSTS AS HIGH AS 120 MPH.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
AT THIS TIME...THE STORM HAS MADE LANDFALL.

...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS...
STORM SURGE FLOODING IS LIKELY IN PROGRESS AT THIS TIME OVER ESCAMBIA
BAY...ESPECIALLY EAST BAY WHERE WATER LEVELS COULD BE BETWEEN 10
AND 14 FEET.  THE TIME OF ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDE HAS PASSED. AS
DENNIS MOVES FARTHER INLAND...WINDS WILL BECOME MORE NORTHWESTERLY
AND THEN WESTERLY THROUGH 6 PM CDT WHICH WILL ALLOW THE STORM SURGE
TO CONTINUE TO FALL.  TIDE LEVELS IN MOBILE BAY ARE GENERALLY LESS
THAN 4 FEET DUE TO OFFSHORE WINDS AS DENNIS.  SOME PILING OF WATER ON
THE BAY SIDES OF BOTH THE FORT MORGAN PENINSULA AND DAUPHIN ISLAND
ARE POSSIBLE DUE TO THE INCREASING NORTHEAST WIND FLOW.  STORM TIDES
OF 5 TO 7 FEET ARE POSSIBLE AT THESE LOCATIONS.

...WIND IMPACTS...
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS...75 MPH OR GREATER...WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD
INLAND THROUGH 6 PM CDT.  THIS WILL OCCUR AROUND AND ESPECIALLY
TO THE EAST OF DENNIS' CENTER.  THE CENTER OF DENNIS IS
CURRENTLY FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN BALDWIN...
ESCAMBIA...SOUTHERN MONROE...CLARKE AND THEN CHOCTAW COUNTIES OF
ALABAMA.  OCCASIONAL WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 80 AND 100 MPH...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS WILL BE QUITE COMMON NEAR THE STORM CENTER...
ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE INTENSE EYEWALL CONVECTION.  INLAND WIND DAMAGE
WILL BE SIMILAR IN MAGNITUDE TO HURRICANE IVAN ALONG THE PATH OF
DENNIS.

...RIP CURRENTS AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS...
STAY OUT OF THE WATER.  HURRICANE CONDITIONS WILL PRECLUDE
RECREATIONAL BEACH ACTIVITY THROUGH MONDAY.  DO NOT GO BACK INTO THE
WATER TONIGHT OR ON MONDAY!  RESIDUAL RIP CURRENTS WILL REMAIN.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED DOWNWARD SLIGHTLY DUE
TO A FASTER FORWARD MOTION FROM DENNIS.  WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TOTALS
OF BETWEEN 5 AND 7 INCHES ARE EXPECTED WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 10
INCHES. THROUGH 6 PM CDT...HOURLY RAINFALL RATES WILL RANGE BETWEEN
3 AND 4 INCHES PER HOUR IN THE MOST INTENSE CONVECTION SURROUNDING
DENNIS.  GROUND CONDITIONS ARE SATURATED AND RAINFALL RUNOFF WILL BE
RAPID...ESPECIALLY NEAR RURAL CREEKS AND STREAMS AND OVER URBAN
CONCRETE SURFACES.  IF FLOODING IS ENCOUNTERED WHILE DRIVING...
REMEMBER TO TURN AROUND AND DON'T DROWN.

LATEST RAINFALL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT RIVER FLOODING COULD BE WORSE
THAN IVAN OF 2004...BUT NOT AS SEVERE AS HURRICANE GEORGES OF 1998.
AREA RIVERS WILL GO INTO FLOOD SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...AND WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE TO REMAIN ABOVE FLOOD STAGE THROUGHOUT THE UPCOMING
MIDWEEK.  THE RIVER FLOODING IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE EXACT TRACK
OF DENNIS.

...TORNADO THREAT...THE TORNADO THREAT WILL BE CONCENTRATED AROUND
THE EYE AS IT MOVES OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA.
THE LATEST RADAR OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT ADDITIONAL TORNADO
WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED.

...NEW INFORMATION...
THROUGH 6 PM CDT...BRATT...JAY AND CENTURY FLORIDA...AS WELL AS
ATMORE...BREWTON...BAY MINETTE AND PERDIDO ALABAMA WILL EXPERIENCE
THE HIGHEST WIND GUSTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE EYE OF DENNIS.  WIDESPREAD
TREE DAMAGE IS LIKELY.

HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENTS WILL BE PREPARED EVERY ONE TO TWO HOURS
AND WILL REFLECT THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS OF THE SHORT-TERM MOVEMENT
OF DENNIS. THIS PRODUCT WILL BE SHORTENED TO REFLECT AND FOCUS ON THE
MOST IMPORTANT INFORMATION AS DENNIS EVOLVES.

...NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT SCHEDULED HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 6
PM CDT.

$$

MEDLIN