NPWSJU) and will be in effect at least until 9AM AST Thursday. Afternoon clouds and shower development is expected to continue to move inland and develop over portions of the interior and southwest sections of Puerto Rico, as well as around the U.S. Virgin islands and surrounding islands. However, as previously mentioned this activity is expected to move quickly across the islands bringing periods of sunshine and fair weather throughout the day. A similar weather pattern is forecast for Thursday, with a mix of sunshine and clouds and passing showers and pleasant near normal daytime and overnight low temperatures. Breezy conditions are expected to continue. By Friday, a wetter pattern is expected as the mid to upper level ridge is to erode in response to a polar trough moving across the west and southwest Atlantic. The east northeast wind flow is also to become more easterly resulting in a return of remnant trade wind low level moisture and convergence across the islands. This along with the proximity of the mid to upper level trough will aid in enhancing overnight and daytime shower activity while increasing the chance for higher rainfall amounts, and the best chance for ponding of water on road and poor drainage areas and minor urban flooding in isolated areas. Widespread rainfall accumulations are not anticipated at this time. The local trade winds are also expected to relax across the region by Friday. && .LONG TERM...Saturday through Wednesday... The synoptic features influencing the long-term forecast have remained relatively consistent, with the main alteration being the timing of their effects. Above-normal moisture levels are expected to persist on Saturday but are anticipated to decrease by Sunday, remaining at near-normal levels. Ridging aloft will keep 500 mb temperatures relatively warmer than the climatological normal with 250 mb height fields higher than usual. Consequently, the atmospheric dynamics do not appear conducive for deep convective development. However, despite this, there will be enough moisture for shallow convective activity, leading to showery weather reaching windward coastal sections during late evenings and morning hours, especially on Saturday. Breezy wind conditions will continue, but they are anticipated to be considerably less pronounced compared to the short-term forecast. The remainder of the long-term forecast will depend on a strengthening area of low pressure that models continue to develop over the south to southeast Gulf of Mexico. According to model guidance, this robust low-pressure system is expected to move across Florida by the upcoming weekend and then progress northward over the western Atlantic. As this occurs, an elongated frontal boundary associated with the low-pressure system is projected to envelop the local area by early next week, with Tuesday anticipated to be the wettest day in the long-term forecast. This scenario will lead to southerly winds drawing abundant columnar moisture, fostering increased moisture convergence across the northeastern Caribbean. Additionally, atmospheric conditions aloft appear to become conducive for deep convection. However, it`s crucial to note that the timing and positioning of these features remain subject to change with varying models and each subsequent model cycle, which have not been consistent in the last day or so. Despite this inconsistency, there is an indication that the latter portion of the long-term forecast, which corresponds to mid-week of next week, will transition towards a more unsettled and wet weather pattern. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 439 AM AST Wed Dec 13 2023 VFR conds at all TAF sites. Brief MVFR conds psbl due to low passing clouds with wdly SCT SHRA ovr regional waters and en route btw the islands. SCT ocnl Bkn lyrs nr FL025...FL040. VCSH/-RA at TJSJ/TISX/ TIST and TJBQ til 12/13Z with mtn top obscr psbl ovr E interior of PR due low cig/-RA. Low/lvl wnds fm ENE 25-30 kts BLO FL180...then backing bcmg fm N and incr w/ht ABV. SFC wnd fm E-NE 5-10 kts bcmg fm ENE 20 to 25 knots with gusty winds to 30-35 knots psbl aft 13/14Z. && .MARINE... Issued at 439 AM AST Wed Dec 13 2023 Nearshore Atlantic buoys are already observing seas of 7 to 8 feet with wind speeds of 15 to 20 knots and higher gusts. This pattern is expected to increase throughout the day with rough seas increasing up to 12 feet and occasionally higher across Atlantic coastal waters, and much higher for the offshore Atlantic waters. East to east-northeast winds will also increase up to 25 knots with gusts up to 45 knots. Therefore, Small Craft Advisories are in effect through at least Saturday. Please refer to the latest Marine Weather Message (MWWSJU) for more information. && .SURF ZONE... Issued at 439 AM AST Wed Dec 13 2023 Life-threatening rip currents due to rough surf and large breaking waves. Nearshore buoys indicated that estimates of breaking waves are already ranging between 9 to 11 feet. Therefore, a High Surf Advisory is in effect for all surf zones across northern and eastern Puerto Rico, Culebra, and northern USVI. High Risk of Rip Currents are in effect for all other beaches, except southern and southwestern Puerto Rico. For more information and details please refer to the latest Surf Zone Forecast (SRFSJU), and the Coastal Hazard Message product (CFWSJU). && .SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PR...High Rip Current Risk through Friday afternoon for PRZ001-002- 005-008-010-012-013. Wind Advisory until 9 AM AST Thursday for PRZ001>013. High Surf Advisory until 6 AM AST Thursday for PRZ001-002-005- 008-012. High Rip Current Risk through Thursday afternoon for PRZ003. VI...High Rip Current Risk through Friday afternoon for VIZ001-002. Wind Advisory until 9 AM AST Thursday for VIZ001-002. High Surf Advisory until 6 AM AST Thursday for VIZ001. AM...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM AST Saturday for AMZ711-712-716- 723-733-741. Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM AST Friday for AMZ726-742. Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 8 AM AST Thursday for AMZ735. Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 6 AM AST Thursday for AMZ745. && $$