PNSOKX
HEADER...HAS BEEN ISSUED ADDRESSING HEAT SAFETY TIPS.

A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE EAST OF THE MS RIVER VALLEY WILL GRADUALLY
BUILD EAST TODAY...WHILE A WEAK SHORT WAVE BYPASSES THE AREA TO
THE NE. IT IS THE LATTER FEATURE THAT WILL KEEP A SURFACE TROF
AXIS JUST EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...RESULTING IN A W FLOW
THAT GRADUALLY BACKS AROUND TO THE SW THIS AFT. THUS...NOT EXPECTING
A TRUE SEABREEZE THIS AFT AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW MUCH OF THE AREA
TO TOP OUT IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S. THE EXCEPTION BEING THE
TWIN FORKS OF LI AND SE CT...WHERE HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S.

SOME HIGH CLOUDS OVER EASTERN CANADA MAY CROSS EASTERN SECTIONS
THIS AFT...BUT FOR THE MOST PART A SUNNY DAY.

A DEEP-LAYERED NW FLOW AND MIXING UP TO 800 MB TODAY WILL ALLOW FOR
DEW POINTS TO DROP OFF TO NEAR 50 THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
ACTUALLY MAKE THE APPARENT TEMPERATURE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN
THE ACTUAL AIR TEMPERATURE. THUS...HEAT INDICES ARE FORECAST TO BE
BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD AS AN ANOMALOUSLY WARM UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY. HIGHS ACROSS
NEW YORK CITY AND THE INTERIOR WILL TOP OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER
90S MON AND TUE AFT...WITH 85H TEMPS 20-22 DEGREES CELSIUS. A DRY
TROPICAL AIRMASS INITIALLY WILL PRODUCE HEAT INDEX VALUES A FEW
DEGREES BELOW THE ACTUAL AIR TEMPERATURE ON MON. HOWEVER...A WEAK
LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF A THERMAL TROUGH ACROSS THE
AREA WILL ALLOW FOR A RETURN FLOW FROM THE S/SW. THIS WILL TRANSPORT
HIGHER DEW POINT AIR INTO THE REGION. THE COMBINATION OF THE HIGH
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE HEAT
INDEX VALUES ON TUE IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S. THIS WILL BE APPROACHING
HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA WITH AN UPWARD TREND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD. FURTHERMORE...OVERNIGHT LOWS IN URBAN
AREAS WILL BE JUST SHY OF 80...PROVIDING LITTLE RELIEF FROM THE
HIGH HEAT RETAINED BY THE BUILDINGS.

IN ADDITION...THE AIRMASS WILL CAPPED DURING THE TIME...SO WHILE
HOT AND INCREASINGLY HUMID...IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE LONG TERM WITH
H5 RIDGE AXIS REACHING THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE BREAKING DOWN
ON THURSDAY...PERHAPS WITH THE HELP OF A RETROGRADING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THINKING IS THAT SUBSIDENCE WILL
PRECLUDE ANY CONVECTION ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THEN SLIGHT
CHC POPS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH THE
APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT AND PREFRONTAL TROUGH...BUT STILL WENT
WITH SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR FRIDAY.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...ECMWF CONTINUES TO SHOW WARMER H8 TEMPERATURES
VS THE GFS...MAINLY ON WEDNESDAY. TAKING AN AVERAGE OF THE 2 GIVES
US H8 TEMPS OF AROUND 22C ON WEDNESDAY...21C ON THURSDAY...AND 20C
ON FRIDAY...CORRESPONDING WITH FALLING HEIGHTS. WEDNESDAY WILL
PROBABLY ALSO FEATURE THE LEAST CLOUD COVER IN THE LONG TERM...SO
WILL GO WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S WITH SPOTTY 100 DEGREE READINGS
FOR THE WARMEST SPOTS ON WEDNESDAY...THEN KNOCKED OFF A DEGREE OR
TWO FOR THE FOLLOWING DAYS. CLOUD COVER PROBABLY THEN LIMITS HIGHS
TO NOT MUCH ABOVE 90 ON SATURDAY.

HEAT INDEX VALUES MAY REACH 100 ACROSS NYC AND THE INTERIOR WED-
FRI.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR. WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN ISSUE...AS DIRECTIONS VARY FROM 260
TO 320. WINDS LIKELY BECOME MORE WESTERLY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON...AND POSSIBLY MORE SOUTHWEST LATE ALONG THE COAST AS
INFLUENCE FROM SEA BREEZES SET IN. THIS EVENING WINDS RETURN TO THE
WEST TO NORTHWEST AND BECOME LESS THAN 10 KT.

WINDS MONDAY WILL AGAIN VARY FROM 270 TO 320...BECOMING MORE
SOUTHWEST ALONG THE COAST TOWARD 18Z AS SEA BREEZES WILL BE MORE
LIKELY MONDAY.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
VFR...COASTAL SEA BREEZES POSSIBLE. HAZE MAY BECOME A PROBLEM
STARTING TUESDAY IN STAGNANT AIRMASS ACROSS TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE SOUTH OF THE AREA WATERS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH TUESDAY. AN AFTERNOON THERMAL TROUGH WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
EACH AFTERNOON...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...OVER THE NEARBY LAND
AREA. THIS ALLOW FOR AFTERNOON NEAR SHORE SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT...
WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE SW FLOW AT NIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL
REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. LOW PRESSURE WELL OFFSHORE MAY CONTRIBUTE A SE SWELL ON
THE OCEAN WATERS...BUT SEAS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 5
FT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BC