PNSTAE
AND WMO HEADER NOUS42 KTAE0.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM NEW ENGLAND DOWN THE ERN
SEABOARD INTO GA AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. THIS HIGH WILL MOVE
LITTLE ON FRI...BUT THEN BEGIN TO SETTLE SWD TO A POSITION OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST OVER THE WEEKEND. MUCH OF THE FORECAST FROM THE
WEEKEND ONWARD WILL DEPEND ON THE TROPICS. MOST OF THE MODELS ARE
DEVELOPING A TC SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY OF THE YUCATAN OR SRN GULF
IN THE WED NIGHT THROUGH THU TIME FRAME. THE NAM APPEARS TO DEVELOP
THE SYSTEM TOO QUICKLY. THE GFS AND EURO BOTH SHOW A MORE GRADUAL
SPIN UP WITH A CYCLONE CENTERED ABOUT 280 MI E OR ESE OF BROWNSVILLE
TX ON FRI. AFTER THAT TIME...THE GFS TAKES THE SYSTEM ON A MORE NLY
TRACK TOWARD LA AND THEN TAKES A SHARP LEFT TURN BACK TOWARD THE TX
COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE 29/12Z EURO ALSO SHOWED SOME TYPE OF LOOP
OVER THE NWRN GULF...BUT THE LATEST 00Z RUN ALLOWS IT TO SIT AND
SPIN PRETTY MUCH IN PLACE. THESE DISCREPANCIES WILL LARGELY IMPACT
HOW BREEZY IT GETS OVER THE ERN GULF. HOWEVER...ANY SCENARIO WITH A
TC IN THE WRN GULF WILL LIKELY ALLOW AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND
ASSOCIATED POP...ESPECIALLY WITH A FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NW.
THIS UPWARD TREND IN POPS BEGINS SUN WITH LIKELY POPS FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA SUN AND MON. ALL OF THIS MOISTURE WILL FINALLY PUT A CAP ON
MAX TEMPS WITH UPPER 80S ACROSS THE WRN ZONES ON SAT AND UPPER 80S
TO AROUND 90 EVERYWHERE SUN AND MON.

&&

.MARINE...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
THE WEAK FRONT LYING ACROSS THE FL BIG BEND AND PANHANDLE COASTAL
WATERS THIS MORNING WILL LIFT COMPLETELY N OF THE WATERS TODAY AND
THEN DISSIPATE. WINDS WILL BE SW TO S. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PA
WILL THEN SETTLE SWD INTO VA TODAY AND REMAIN NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST INTO FRI. MEANWHILE...PRESSURES WILL BEGIN TO DROP ACROSS THE
SRN GULF IN THE VICINITY OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THIS WILL SET UP
A PERIOD OF ELY FLOW ACROSS THE NE GULF FROM TONIGHT INTO THE LATTER
PART OF THE WEEK. NOCTURNAL SURGES COULD BRING WINDS UP TO EXERCISE
CAUTION LEVELS THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING. AFTER THAT TIME...THE
FORECAST DEPENDS LARGELY ON WHAT DEVELOPS OVER THE WRN GULF OF
MEXICO. MANY OF THE MODELS ARE DEVELOPING A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THAT
AREA. THE SYSTEM HAS YET TO DEVELOP AND NHC HAS YET TO DISCUSS IT.
THEREFORE...UNCERTAINLY IN THE FORECAST IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL FOR
THE WEEKEND. SINCE THERE APPEARS TO BE CONSENSUS THAT A TC WILL BE
SOMEWHERE IN THE WRN GULF...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD VEER TO THE SE AND
SEAS BEGIN TO INCREASE. WE HAVE CAPPED SEAS AT 7 FT FOR NOW ON
SAT...LOWER THAN WAVEWATCH DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE FORECAST.
WINDS ARE FORECAST NEAR SCA THRESHOLDS. MARINERS SHOULD KEEP A CLOSE
EYE ON THE FORECAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...PARTICULARLY IF THEY
HAVE PLANS FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY.
MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR VIS
RESTRICTION ASSOCIATED WITH SMOKE AT THE KTLH TERMINAL AND EVENTUAL
BR OVER TOWARD KVLD AND KECP. THERE IS STILL SMOKE IN THE KTLH
VICINITY THIS EARLY MORNING...AS IT IS NOTICEABLE AT THE NWS OFFICE
A FEW MILES TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE AIRPORT. THEREFORE WILL CONTINUE
TO INDICATE MVFR VIS IN THE TAF...AND A PERIOD OF IFR VIS IS
BECOMING MORE LIKELY...ESPECIALLY IN THE HOUR OR 2 SURROUNDING
SUNRISE. ELSEWHERE ONLY EXPECTING A PERIOD OF MVFR VIS AT KECP AND
KVLD AS WE APPROACH DAWN. DEWPOINT DEPRESSION AT KABY WAS STILL
AROUND 25 DEGREES AS OF TAF ISSUANCE...SO THE POTENTIAL FOR VIS
RESTRICTIONS IS FAIRLY LOW AT THAT TERMINAL THIS MORNING. AFTER ANY
MORNING BR BURNS OFF AND THE SMOKE IS ABLE TO MIX OUT...PREVAILING
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF A BRIEF SHOWER/STORM AT KTLH
OR KVLD DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE
TODAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
DESPITE THE MODEST INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA WEST OF A LINE FROM AROUND TALLAHASSEE TO ALBANY WILL
SEE RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS APPROACH OR DROP BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS.
BASED ON FORECAST ERC AND DISPERSION VALUES WILL REMOVE A FEW OF THE
COUNTIES FROM THE RED FLAG WARNING OVER THE INLAND FLORIDA
PANHANDLE. MUCH OF SOUTHEAST ALABAMA WILL SEE RELATIVE HUMIDITY DROP
BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS...HOWEVER WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLDS AND PREVENT RED FLAG CONDITIONS. A FURTHER
INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DURING THE MIDDLE AND END OF THE WEEK
IS EXPECTED TO PREVENT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FROM
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK OVER THE ENTIRE AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TALLAHASSEE   99  74  96  74  95 /  30  20  30  30  40
PANAMA CITY   91  76  90  75  93 /  20  10  30  20  30
DOTHAN        99  73  96  72  95 /  10  10  20  10  10
ALBANY        99  73  96  72  94 /  10  20  10  10  10
VALDOSTA     100  73  96  72  95 /  30  20  30  20  40
CROSS CITY    94  72  94  72  94 /  30  20  40  20  50
APALACHICOLA  92  77  91  77  91 /  20  20  30  30  20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
FL...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: HOLMES...JACKSON...WASHINGTON.
GM...NONE.


&&

$$