SPSBOX. MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOCUS CONTINUES
ON THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

SLOWED THE PROGRESSION OF BUILDING SW SWELL ON THE COASTAL
WATERS...AS THE WNA IS OVERDONE...MAINLY DUE TO THE LOW LEVEL
INVERSION OVER THE OCEAN. THUS MADE SOME MODIFICATION TO SEAS AND
WIND GUST GRIDS MONDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES FROM MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

AVIATION: LIGHT HAZE AND FOG PATCHES WILL BRING SCATTERED MVFR VSBYS
OVERNIGHT. ISOLATED IFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE IN FOG PATCHES. SLOWED THE
PROGRESSION OF THUNDERSTORMS INTO INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA UNTIL A 20 TO 23Z TIME FRAME. BOS-PVD-HYA-ACK SHOULD SEE MENTION
OF TSRA/SHRA JUST BEYOND 00Z TUESDAY.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 532 PM EDT SUN JUN 18 2006/ 

..SEVERAL THUNDERSTORM EPISODES THIS COMING WEEK AS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND WILL ESSENTIALLY LIE WITHIN 100 MILES OF A STRONG
OSCILLATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY LATE MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY THE 25TH...

TAUNTON RADAR...
.THE TAUNTON DOPPLER RADAR WILL BE OUT OF SERVICE MUCH OF THIS
COMING WEEK...

A SIGNIFICANT SOFTWARE AND SYSTEM UPGRADE WILL BE MADE TO THE TAUNTON
DOPPLER RADAR.  THIS UPGRADE WILL REQUIRE THAT THE RADAR BE OUT OF
SERVICE FOR SEVERAL DAYS.  THE RADAR WILL BE TAKEN DOWN ON TUESDAY
AND THEN REMAIN OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL THURSDAY OR FRIDAY.  WE
APOLOGIZE FOR THE INCONVENIENCE.

THE DOPPLER RADARS IN ALBANY AND BROOKHAVEN NEW YORK...AS WELL AS
GRAY MAINE CAN BE USED TO COVER OUR REGION.

SYNOPSIS...
A HOT START TO THE WEEK WILL GIVE WAY LATE THIS WEEK THROUGH THE
WEEKEND TO A VERY HUMID BATTLEGROUND OF COOL CANADIAN AIR ALONG
PORTIONS OF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WITH NOTABLY WARMER AND WETTER
THAN NORMAL AIR NEAR 40 DEGS N LATITUDE.

CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVG THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  AVG THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
THIS COMING WEEKEND...BELOW AVG ON TEMPS...BUT AVG AVG ON WETTER THAN
NORMAL.

WE DONT KNOW WITH CERTAINTY WHETHER SNE WILL BE PREDOMINATELY WARM OR
COOL THIS COMING WEEKEND BUT WE REMAINED WITH CONTINUITY FROM OUR
PRIOR EARLY MORNING FORECAST...ESPECIALLY WITH CONSIDERATION TO THE
UKMET AND ECMWF OP RUN SOLNS. THE COAST NEXT WEEKEND MAY BE LOADED
WITH COOL FOGGY MARINE STRATUS.

PICK OF THE WEEK FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITY AND LOW HUMIDITY...WEDNESDAY.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT EXCEPT FOR SOME HAZY CONDITIONS
AND LOCALIZED FOG LATE. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS HAS BEGUN TO
SHIFT EAST...SO DO NOT ANTICIPATE CONVECTION SPILLING DUE SOUTHWARD
ACROSS US TONIGHT AS IT HAS DONE THE PAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS.

THE BIG WEATHER STORY WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER ON
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH FULL SUNSHINE IN THE
MORNING...TEMPERATURES SHOULD QUICKLY REACH 89-94 ACROSS MUCH OF
INTERIOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  700 MB TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO
BE +7C...WHICH IS 2.5 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY...MAKING THE
ATMOSPHERE MORE UNSTABLE.  IN ADDITION...DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO
REACH 70 DEGREES ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION...WITH PERHAPS UP TO 74
DEGREES AT A FEW SPOTS. THIS WILL LEAD TO SURFACE BASED CAPES IN THE
2000-3000 JOULE RANGE. WIND SPEEDS OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS IN MID LEVELS
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL. SCATTERED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS MAY FIRST ERUPT IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE
AS EARLY AS 1 OR 2 PM.

HOWEVER...A MORE ORGANIZED SQUALL LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN EASTERN NEW YORK STATE LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON...WORKING ITS WAY INTO WESTERN MA...NW CT...AND SW NH
BETWEEN 5 PM AND 9 PM.  LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...FREQUENT CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING...AND TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
THE STORMS WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT AS THEY WORK THEIR WAY ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND MONDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TUESDAY...STILL LOOKS POTENT WITH DECENT CAPE AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
CROSSING SNE.  POPS INCREASED...ESPECIALLY EAST BUT UK AND MREF SVR
WX PARMS SUGGEST THAT THE POTENCY FOR A WDSPRD THUNDER DAY INITIATE
ALONG THE VT/MA BORDER.  GUIDANCE TEMPS RAISED TO NR 85F...ALREADY
WITH A WARM START IN THE MORNING.  FOG IN THE GRIDS FOR THE S
COAST AND HAZY IN LAND ZONES DUE TO HIGH RH.

WEDNESDAY...ALL MODELS DRY WITH VERY LOW TDS AT 850 MB.  BUT THIS
IS TEMPORARY AND FLOW TURNS SW LATE IN THE DAY SO ENJOY THE RESPITE.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY...FAIRLY STRONG ADVECTION OF INSTABILITY.  ONE OF
THESE TWO DAYS SHOULD BE QUITE ACTIVE.  GUIDANCE POPS RAISED.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...12Z GFS APPEARS WAY TO DRY AND A BIG SWD DEPARTURE
FROM ITS 00Z AND 06Z VSNS.  ECMWF AND UKMET STAY THE COURSE ON AN
ACTIVE PATTERN. ECMWF/UKMET WIND FIELDS LOOKS PRETTY STRONG AND LOTS
OF PWAT POOLING FM THE LOWER MISS VALLEY INTO AT LEAST THE LOWER MID
ATLC STATES. THE FORECAST THINKING WAS THAT THE 12Z GFS OP RUN WAS
FAR TOO DEPRESSED...ESPECIALLY WHEN CONSIDERED AGAINST UKMET AND
ECMWF/NOGAPS SOLNS WHICH SHOW A STRONG HIGH AND RDG IN W CENTRAL ATLC
WHICH WILL BE TOUGH FOR FRONTS TO BUDGE AND ALLOWS ALOT OF RH POOLING
NR THE COAST.  THAT AND THE THE WIND FIELDS PROMOTE THE IDEA OF AN
ACTIVE PATTERN LASTING INTO THE WKND.

AVIATION...
AVIATIONWISE...JUST SCATTERED CIRRUS CLOUDS TONIGHT AND VISIBILITIES
OF 5-6 MILES IN HAZE.  BUT BETWEEN ROUGHLY 05Z AND 11Z THERE COULD
BE LOCALIZED AREAS OF FOG REDUCING VISIBILITY TO NEAR 3 MILES.
LOCALIZED CEILINGS OF 500 FT ARE FORECAST FOR NANTUCKET IN THAT TIME
FRAME.  WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE TO 15G25 KTS FROM THE SW DURING
THE DAY ON MON.

MARINE...
MARINEWISE IN THE SHORT TERM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN
POSTED FOR 3 TO 5 FOOT SEAS ALONG THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST COASTAL
WATERS. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 30
KNOTS AND SEAS WILL BUILD TO 4 TO 7 FEET MONDAY ON THE REMAINDER OF
THE COASTAL WATERS EXCEPT FOR BOSTON HARBOR AND NARRAGANSETT
BAY...THUS PROMPTING AN EXPANSION OF THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ON
MON.  SEAS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY HIGH MON NIGHT AS THE REMNANTS OF
A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVE THROUGH.

LONG TERM...WINDS AND SEAS ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN JUST BELOW SCA
CRITERIA TUE-FRI BUT MAYBE WITH SOME COAST SEAS CRITERIA ON
OCCASIONAL DUE TO SW WIND FETCH.

HYDROLOGY...
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL POSSIBLE THIS NEXT 7 DAY PERIOD. STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS NW MA LATE MONDAY... AGAIN TUE AFTERNOON ANYWHERE IN
THE CWA BUT FOCUSED A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE MASS COAST...THEN A
MULTIPLE EPISODIC ACCUMULATION OF HEAVY RAINS POSSIBLE THU-SUN.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ANZ254-255 UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY.
  ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ANZ231>235-237-250 FROM 2 PM MONDAY 
     TO 6 AM TUESDAY.
&&