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| #1143769 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:50 AM 15.Jul.2023) TCDAT5 Subtropical Storm Don Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052023 1100 AM AST Sat Jul 15 2023 While the low-level circulation of Don remains robust, any associated convection is weaker than overnight and farther from the center. Satellite intensity estimates haven`t changed much, so the initial wind speed will stay at 40 kt, though this feels a little generous. Unfortunately, the morning scatterometer passes missed the center. Don has wobbled northwestward overnight, at about 8 kt. The storm should turn northward later today and then eastward by late tomorrow while it moves around the periphery of a strong subtropical ridge. The biggest change to the forecast of Don is that the track guidance has shifted northward in the first few days of the forecast period. The NHC forecast is shifted in that direction, with little change in the longer range as Don moves southward around the east side of the strong ridge. The storm should remain in a marginal environment during the next few days with cool SSTs and dry air lurking, causing the system to keep about the same strength or gradually decay. With the northward forecast change, taking Don across cooler waters, it is possible that Don could weaken into a depression or a remnant low in a couple of days. Some re-intensification is possible at long range when Don moves over warmer waters, though the uncertainty is high. No big changes were made to the previous forecast, but it wouldn`t be surprising if downward adjustments were necessary in the afternoon forecast package. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/1500Z 36.5N 48.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 16/0000Z 37.8N 48.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 16/1200Z 39.1N 48.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 17/0000Z 39.5N 46.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 17/1200Z 39.3N 44.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 18/0000Z 38.4N 42.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 18/1200Z 36.8N 41.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 19/1200Z 33.9N 41.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 20/1200Z 33.0N 42.0W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake |
