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Rafael continues to decouple over the Gulf. Meanwhile we are keeping a watch on Invest 98L around the Bahamas and potentially a new low forming in the Caribbean.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 31 (Milton) , Major: 31 (Milton) Florida - Any: 31 (Milton) Major: 31 (Milton)
26.3N 91.9W
Wind: 40MPH
Pres: 1003mb
Moving:
Nnw at 3 mph
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#1144526 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:44 AM 20.Jul.2023)
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM DON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 26
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052023
1500 UTC THU JUL 20 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.4N 42.7W AT 20/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 90SE 90SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.4N 42.7W AT 20/1500Z
AT 20/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.3N 42.2W

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 34.9N 43.8W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 35.7N 45.7W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 37.0N 47.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 38.6N 49.1W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 40.8N 50.2W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 42.8N 50.3W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z 46.7N 46.1W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.4N 42.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER HOGSETT/BROWN