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| #1148561 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:57 AM 20.Aug.2023) TCDAT1 Tropical Depression Six Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062023 1100 AM AST Sun Aug 20 2023 Visible satellite imagery this morning continues to show a partially exposed center, with persistent deep convection displaced slightly to the north and east of the depression. Based on a blend of objective and subjective satellite estimates, the initial intensity estimate for this advisory remains 30 kt. Although deep convection has persisted this morning, deep-layer westerly shear is expected to increase to near 40 kt today and remain steady during the next 24 hours. Further, dry mid-level air to the north of the system will likely inhibit well-organized and sustained deep convection. Global models and ensemble systems are in agreement that intensification of the depression is unlikely, and thus the official forecast has the depression as a remnant low in 24 h and dissipated in 36 h. The depression has continued moving slightly south of due west this morning, and it is expected to turn slightly north of due west today, with this general motion expected to continue until dissipation occurs. Given the continued motion toward the west-southwest, the official track forecast lies slightly to the south of the previous forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/1500Z 16.8N 53.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 21/0000Z 16.9N 55.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 21/1200Z 17.2N 57.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 22/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Hogsett/Cangialosi |
