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| #1148692 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:00 AM 21.Aug.2023) TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Gert Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062023 500 AM AST Mon Aug 21 2023 After a brief intensification period overnight, Gert is quickly unraveling this morning. The surface circulation is becoming ill-defined while the associated sheared mass of convection is shrinking. Although the cloud pattern has certainly become less organized during the past few hours, the initial intensity is generously held at 35 kt for this advisory and is supported by the Dvorak satellite intensity estimates. Despite a rather diffluent upper-wind pattern, strong, persistent westerly shear and a statically stable and dry mid-tropospheric surrounding air mass should force Gert`s surface center to separate farther from the diminishing convective mass later today and degenerate to a remnant low by this evening. The morning`s global model simulated infrared imagery also shows the cyclone opening to a trough of low pressure in less than 36 hours, and the NHC official forecast reflects this prediction. The initial motion is estimated to be westward, or 280/8 kt. A gradual turn toward the west-northwest is expected by tonight, and this general motion should continue until dissipation occurs on Tuesday. The official forecast has been adjusted slightly to the right of the previous one and is based on the simple and NOAA HFIP Corrected Consensus forecasts. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/0900Z 16.7N 56.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 21/1800Z 17.0N 57.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 22/0600Z 17.6N 59.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 22/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Roberts |
